Greater China Company Results | Fuyao Glass (3606 HK/BUY/HK$60.25/Target: HK$105.00) FYG’s 4Q25 GAAP net profit missed expectations at Rmb2,248m (+11.3% yoy/-0.5% qoq), due to forex losses. Stripping out one-off items, adjusted net profit met estimates at Rmb2,427m (+36.2% yoy/+4.0% qoq) on a yoy margin expansion. Its earnings outlook remains brilliant, backed by: a) continuous market share gain overseas, b) ASP increase from optimisation of product mix, and c) its aluminium trim business. M...
Greater China Economics | China China set a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0% yoy, in line with expectations, while maintaining a 4% fiscal deficit ratio. Fiscal policy remains the main growth driver, supported by Rmb4.4t in local government special bonds and Rmb1.3t in ultra-long treasury bonds, while monetary policy stays accommodative. Policy priorities focus on AI+, New Quality Productive Forces, industrial upgrading, and targeted consumption support, alongside welfare improvements and ...
Greater China Strategy | Hong Kong Budget 2026-27 The 2026-27 Budget marks a shift from deficit spending to structural consolidation, projecting a HK$22.1b surplus (0.6% of GDP) from last year’s HK$67.0b deficit (2% of GDP), which will lift fiscal reserves from 8 months to 10 months of government expenditure. Real GDP growth is projected at 2.5-3.5% yoy, with CPI at 1.7% yoy. Policy prioritises Northern Metropolis and AI investment, while property measures have turned more prudent, raising luxur...
Company Update | Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL TB/BUY/Bt39.25/Target: Bt45.00) There was a positive tone during CENTEL’s 4Q25 analyst meeting, with solid 2026 growth guidance driven by new Maldives hotels. Hotel and food revenues are expected to grow 14-15% yoy. 4Q25 earnings beat expectations on stronger margins and lower interest costs. Momentum remains strong into 1Q26, supported by the Maldives performance and recovery of the food business. Chinese arrivals are rebounding strongly, supporting ...
Top Stories Company Results | Betagro (BTG TB/HOLD/Bt20.50/Target: Bt21.00) BTG reported a 4Q25 core profit of Bt935m (-3% yoy and -23% qoq). The results beat our and the market’s forecasts. Management expects swine prices to increase gradually to around Bt65/kg and targets a swine price of Bt70/kg in 2026. Looking ahead, we expect 1Q26 earnings to increase slightly qoq, supported by higher ASPs. However, earnings are expected to decline yoy due to a high base. Maintain HOLD with a target pric...
Company Update | Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL TB/BUY/Bt36.50/Target: Bt42.00) CENTEL is expected to post a slight yoy earnings decline in 4Q25, with net profit of Bt642m (-3.7% yoy) due to hotel renovations and normalisation of profit sharing, despite revenue growth driven by strong Maldives and upcountry performance. Robust hotel performance momentum should extend into 1Q26, supported by rising Chinese tourist arrivals. The acquisition of Lucky Suki will strengthen the food business, with meanin...
Top Stories Company Update | Asset World Corporation (AWC TB/BUY/Bt2.26/Target: Bt3.00) AWC is expected to deliver strong 4Q25 core earnings, with core profit of Bt690m (+2.1% yoy, +160.9% qoq) driven by solid hotel growth and a sharp rebound in retail revenue. Jurassic World continues to outperform, lifting retail revenue, margins, and Asiatique occupancy while enhancing rental pricing power. Although RevPar remains pressured by weak Chinese arrivals, early-26 data show improving momentum ahea...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile CPCA estimates January China passenger NEV wholesale sales at 900,000 units (+1% yoy/-42% mom), with front-loaded purchases ahead of the reduced purchase tax and delayed local subsidies weighing on volumes. Automakers with ICE-car exposure, such as Geely Auto and Great Wall Motor, saw relatively resilient January sales. We expect China’s auto sales to recover after Chinese New Year, with the local subsidies in place. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: ...
Greater China Initiate Coverage | Pony AI Inc (PONY US/BUY/US$12.18/Target: US$26.10) Pony AI is a global leader in autonomous mobility, leveraging its virtual driver technology to enable the mass production and deployment of autonomous vehicles across diverse regions. We expect revenue to grow at a three-year CAGR of 65% from 2024-27, net loss to narrow, and bottom line to turn around in 2028, driven by large-scale commercialisation. Initiate coverage with BUY and a target price of US$26.10...
Company Update | Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL TB/BUY/Bt31.25/Target: Bt37.00) The tone during CENTEL’s analyst meeting was positive, supported by the acquisition of a 40% stake in Lucky Suki which will strengthen its food portfolio despite fierce Sukiyaki-market competition. 3Q25 results were solid with a net profit of Bt160m, driven by strong hotel performance in upcountry, Japan, and Mirage Pattaya, along with steady food SSSG. The outlook for 4Q25 and 1Q26 remains positive, backed by high occu...
Top Stories Company Update | Berli Jucker (BJC TB/BUY/Bt17.20/Target: Bt 24.00) The new JV between BJL and DHL is expected to enhance BJC’s logistics operations. For 2025, management guided for top-line to be flat yoy and a 15-20bps yoy expansion in gross margin, mainly driven by the non-retail segment. Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt24.00. Company Update | Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL TB/BUY/Bt31.25/Target: Bt37.00) The tone during CENTEL’s analyst meeting was positive, supported by t...
Greater China Company Results | Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$17.20/Target: HK$42.00 Geely’s 3Q25 results meet expectations with GAAP net profit/core net profit growing 58%/19% yoy and 6%/24% qoq to Rmb3.82b/Rmb3.96b respectively. Earnings growth will be driven by a strong product cycle, optimisation of sales mix, penetration into overseas markets, and consolidation of its brand portfolios. We maintain our 2025-27 earnings estimates. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of HK$42.00 pegged...
Company Update | Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL TB/BUY/Bt32.25/Target: Bt37.00) CENTEL is expected to report a 3Q25 net profit of Bt157m (-3.5% yoy), and core profit of Bt170m (+4.4% yoy) excluding one-offs, driven by a strong performance from hotels Mirage Pattaya and Centara Osaka. The food segment should see a slight margin expansion. CENTEL will benefit from the new tax deduction measure for hotel renovations, which will support the upgrades in Krabi and Hua Hin (to complete by 2Q27). With imp...
Top Stories Company Update | Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL TB/BUY/Bt32.25/Target: Bt37.00) CENTEL is expected to report a 3Q25 net profit of Bt157m (-3.5% yoy), and core profit of Bt170m (+4.4% yoy) excluding one-offs, driven by a strong performance from hotels Mirage Pattaya and Centara Osaka. The food segment should see a slight margin expansion. CENTEL will benefit from the new tax deduction measure for hotel renovations, which will support the upgrades in Krabi and Hua Hin (to complete by 2Q...
Greater China Company Results | China Resources Building Materials Technology (1313 HK/BUY/HK$1.75 /Target: HK$2.06) CR Building Mat Tech’s 9M25 results were below expectations, with earnings up 7.3% yoy to Rmb331m on lower coal costs. Weather disruptions weighed on 3Q25 cement sales volume, while Guangdong prices stayed soft. Aggregates turned loss-making, prompting capex cuts. Management guided 2025 sales of 55m tonnes (-10.9% yoy) and highlighted a planned capacity-exit fund as a medium-term ...
Hotel stocks reported a combined core profit of Bt3,767m for 2Q25 (+0.4% yoy, +101.3% qoq), mainly supported by MINT’s strong hotel performance in Europe. However, Thai tourism’s 3Q25 outlook should remain dull, similar to 2Q25. Hopes of hotel operators rest on the high travel season in 4Q25, as room bookings still indicate a positive momentum. MINT remains our top pick given its lower cost of debt. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
The tone of the meeting was slightly positive. Management revised down this year’s revenue growth target, but we view this as reasonable given the current situation. We expect to see an improvement in the outlook from 3Q25 onwards as the forward hotel bookings in Thailand and the Maldives suggest a smaller yoy decline. We expect 3Q25 to be another challenging quarter for CENTEL, but we are becoming more optimistic given the signs of recovery. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt33.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Bangkok Chain Hospital (BCH TB/BUY/Bt14.10/Target: Bt17.50) 2Q25: Reported strong earnings as expected. Update Central Pattana (CPN TB/BUY/Bt54.50/Target: Bt79.60) Favourable 2H25 outlook anchored by core business resilience. Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL TB/BUY/Bt27.00/Target: Bt33.00) Expect a gradual improvement in outlook. Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF TB/HOLD/Bt24.40/Target: Bt24.00) 2Q25 earnings in line; 3Q25 earnings momentum to soften. The Erawan ...
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity: Growth decelerates as trade war impact deepens. Results Chongqing Brewery (600132 CH/BUY/Rmb55.26/Target: Rmb67.40): 2Q25: Volume remained flat but ASP dropped 2% yoy; expanding off-trade channel to offset the weakness in on-trade channel. CSPC Innovation Pharmaceutical Co (300765 CH/HOLD/Rmb53.00/Target: Rmb52.00): 1H25: Results in line, smooth progress in R&D. Update Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH/BUY/Rmb44.86/Target: Rmb49.50): Solid 3Q guida...
We expect CENTEL to report a net profit of Bt157m (-6.0% yoy, -78.9% qoq) for 2Q25. The hotel segment’s performance was able to maintain its RevPar to be flat yoy thanks to strong growth in Japan and upcountry hotels. However, the expenses from opening the new hotel at the Maldives will cause the earnings to contract yoy. We expect 3Q25 to be another challenging quarter for CENTEL as there will be fewer supporting factors. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt33.00.
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