Nokian Tyres (Hold, TP: EUR9.50) - Directionally better

For 2024, Nokian Tyres is set to see a boost in capacity, but most of the increase should stem from less-profitable contract manufacturing, leaving limited upside potential to consensus, in our view. For Q1, we expect reiterated 2024 guidance on slightly improved sell-in trends and an update on capacity expansion. We reiterate our HOLD but have nudged up our target price to EUR9.5 (9.0).

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 02/07/2024

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ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 07/02/2024

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Nokian Renkaat Oyj : Making headway but still a long way to go

>Q4 earnings slightly below expectations, low end of the FY guidance range - Nokian Tyres reported Q4 2023 earnings that slightly missed our estimates and the consensus with sales up 2% to € 368m (consensus € 369m) and adjusted EBIT of € 44.5m (consensus € 47m), buoyed by progress in passenger tyres (although less than hoped). Over the full year, the performance therefore came in at the lower end of the guidance range, which was revised down at the end of October (sal...

Nokian Renkaat Oyj : Des progrès mais la route est encore longue

>T4 légèrement inférieur aux attentes, bas de la fourchette de la guidance annuelle - Nokian Tyres a publié des résultats T4 2023 légèrement inférieurs à nos attentes et celles du consensus avec un CA en hausse de 2% à 368 M€ (consensus 369 M€) et un EBIT ajusté de 44.5 M€ (consensus 47 M€), porté par les progrès dans le tourisme (bien que moindres qu’espéré). Sur l’année, la performance ressort donc en bas de la fourchette de la guidance qui avait été abaissée fin o...

Nokian Tyres (Hold, TP: EUR9.00) - Mixed Q4, but better direction

Nokian Tyres expects a better 2024 ahead, driven by improved sell-in activity and higher supply. However, in our view overall Q4 results were soft and the outlook involves an element of uncertainty, while 2024 guidance also seemed vague. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to EUR9.0 (8.5), with a c6% dividend yield lending solid support for the share price.

Nokian Tyres (Hold, TP: EUR8.50) - More optimistic on 2024e

We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to EUR8.5 (7.5) to reflect our c2–3% higher clean EBIT for 2024–2025e and peers’ re-rating since our last update. We expect a soft Q4, but dwindling dealer stocks and potentially lower interest rates should allow for a more positive 2024e demand picture. However, we find the current valuation fair.

Nokian Tyres (Hold, TP: EUR7.50) - A not so merry winter season

The Q3 results were weak, as expected, given the pre-released headline results last week, and offered limited incremental news, in our view. We reiterate our HOLD but have reduced our target price to EUR7.5 (8) following c10% cuts to our clean 2024–2025e EBIT on average. We remain neutral given low near-term visibility and weak trading conditions, although the new capacity ramp-up should eventually lead to solid profit growth.

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 10/25/2023 Date Performance sin...

Ahead of the Q3 publications, we are confident on the sector, which should confirm a soft-landing scenario which limits risks of a warning. However, we fear the market’s reaction as comments are likely to indicate a continuing slowdown in Q4, resulting in weak embedded growth in early 2024. This leads us to lower our growth forecasts for several companies and limits sector momentum. In this context, our Top Picks are: Sopra Steria, Indra, Alten, Bechtle, Wavestone and Assystem. - ...

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 25/10/2023 Date Performance dep...

En amont des publications T3, nous sommes confiants pour le secteur, qui devrait confirmer le scenario de soft landing, ce qui limite les risques de warning. Toutefois, nous redoutons la réaction du marché alors que les commentaires devraient indiquer une poursuite du ralentissement au T4 menant à des croissances embarquées faibles début 2024. Ceci nous conduit à abaisser nos prévisions de croissance de plusieurs titres et limite le momentum du secteur. Dans ce contexte, nos top picks...

Nokian Renkaat Oyj : Q3 well below expectations, FY outlook sharply cu...

>Q3 well below expectations (-36% on the EBIT line), hit by volumes - Nokian Tyres released preliminary Q3 2023 earnings yesterday evening and they came out far lower than expected (-30% on sales and -36% on adjusted EBIT), mostly because of weaker volumes as already mentioned by most of the group’s peers (destocking effect) but particularly pronounced in the case of Nokian Tyres as the most sluggish momentum applies to the winter tyres segment which remains its core ...

Nokian Renkaat Oyj : T3 nettement inférieur aux attentes, forte révisi...

>T3 nettement inférieur aux attentes (-36% sur l’EBIT), pénalisé par les volumes - Nokian Tyres a publié, hier soir, des résultats préliminaires T3 2023 nettement inférieurs aux attentes (-30% sur le CA et -36% sur l’EBIT ajusté), essentiellement en raison d’une faiblesse plus marquée sur le plan des volumes, déjà mentionnée par la plupart des concurrents (déstockage) et d’autant plus importante pour Nokian Tyres que le momentum le plus difficile concerne les pneus hi...

Nokian Tyres (Hold, TP: EUR8.00) - Tyres may not be in season

Nokian Tyres’ Q3e will be boosted by significant volume growth, but macro headwinds and high stock levels in the distribution are likely to weigh on near-term demand. In our view, increased seasonality adds to the full-year guidance downside risk. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to EUR8 (9) after reducing our Segment EBIT by 7–2% for 2023–2024e.

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 24/07/2023 Date Performance dep...

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ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 07/24/2023 Date Performance sin...

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Nokian Renkaat Oyj : Still tough going in Q2 2023

>Earnings short of expectations again - Nokian Tyres reported sharply lower Q2 2023 results (sales down -12%, adjusted EBIT margin of 5.2%), further marked, as expected, by the exit from Russia, but lower than expected (adjusted EBIT of € 15m vs € 17m expected). As anticipated, the group confirmed its full-year guidance, suggesting even more pronounced H1/H2 seasonality. With the consensus already in the middle of the range, revisions are likely to be limited (we are ...

Nokian Renkaat Oyj : Un T2 2023 encore difficile

>Une publication à nouveau en deçà des attentes - Nokian Tyres a publié des résultats T2 2023 en net recul (CA en baisse de 12%, marge d’EBIT ajustée à 5.2%) marqués comme attendu et à nouveau par la sortie de la Russie mais inférieurs aux attentes (EBIT ajusté 15 M€ vs 17 M€ attendus). Comme attendu, le groupe a confirmé ses objectifs annuels, suggérant une saisonnalité S1/S2 encore plus forte. Le consensus étant déjà en ligne avec le milieu de fourchette, les révisi...

Nokian Tyres (Hold, TP: EUR9.00) - Rebuilding in a potentially tougher...

We have trimmed our 2023e Segment EBIT due to the weaker-than-expected Heavy Tyres profitability, but kept our 2024–2025e Segment EBIT largely intact. The guidance was maintained, but the upper end seems to be more dependent upon stable market conditions. We reiterate our HOLD and EUR9 target price.

Northern Lights

Nokian Tyres (Hold, TP: EUR9.00) - Pricing trend continues to flatten

Our proprietary pricing study suggests a continued slowdown in Nokian Tyres’ sell-out prices YOY, and highlights a recent sharp 2%-point drop in competitors’ sell-out prices in the Nordics. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to EUR9 (9.8) after reducing our 2023–2025e segment EBIT by c4%, on average, due to our expectation of cooling demand.