reports
- Jean-François Granjon
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 10/30/2024
The outcome of the US presidential election hangs in the balance, but the momentum seems to be with Donald Trump since the beginning of October: the candidate is now in the lead in six of the seven swing states, has just overtaken Kamala Harris in the national vote while 63% of punters are tipping him to win. We recap in the present note on the European stocks to play or avoid in the event of Donald Trump's victory and have also listed European stocks with a production base in the US,...
ETL EUTELSAT COMMUNICATIONS SA
OUT1V OUTOKUMPU OYJ
ALCLA CLASQUIN SA
TYRES NOKIAN RENKAAT OYJ
ACX ACERINOX SA
TRI TRIGANO SA
NEX NEXANS SA
ROYAL VOPAK NV
MMT METROPOLE TELEVISION SA
CIE CIE AUTOMOTIVE S.A.
AED AEDIFICA SA
MCPHY MCPHY ENERGY SA
SHOT SCANDIC HOTELS GROUP
MELE MELEXIS NV
ENC ENCE ENERGIA Y CELULOSA SA
CSM CORBION NV
LFDE LA FRANCAISE DE L'ENERGIE SA
IBG IBERPAPEL GESTION S.A.
IDR INDRA SISTEMAS S.A. CLASS A
MVC METROVACESA SA
ANTIN ANTIN INFRASTRUCTURE PARTNERS
FPE3 FUCHS PETROLUB SE
ORP ORPEA
- Jean-François Granjon
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 30/10/2024
Le scrutin présidentiel US reste incertain, mais le momentum semble être du côté de Donald Trump depuis début octobre : le candidat est désormais en tête dans 6 des 7 swing states, vient de dépasser Kamala Harris dans le vote national et est donné gagnant à 63% chez les parieurs. Nous rappelons les valeurs européennes à privilégier ou à éviter en cas de victoire de Donald Trump, et avons également listé les valeurs européennes ayant une base de production aux US, par nature moins expo...
ETL EUTELSAT COMMUNICATIONS SA
OUT1V OUTOKUMPU OYJ
ALCLA CLASQUIN SA
TYRES NOKIAN RENKAAT OYJ
ACX ACERINOX SA
TRI TRIGANO SA
NEX NEXANS SA
ROYAL VOPAK NV
MMT METROPOLE TELEVISION SA
CIE CIE AUTOMOTIVE S.A.
AED AEDIFICA SA
MCPHY MCPHY ENERGY SA
SHOT SCANDIC HOTELS GROUP
MELE MELEXIS NV
ENC ENCE ENERGIA Y CELULOSA SA
CSM CORBION NV
LFDE LA FRANCAISE DE L'ENERGIE SA
IBG IBERPAPEL GESTION S.A.
IDR INDRA SISTEMAS S.A. CLASS A
MVC METROVACESA SA
ANTIN ANTIN INFRASTRUCTURE PARTNERS
FPE3 FUCHS PETROLUB SE
ORP ORPEA
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Nokian Renkaat Oyj : An uninspiring Q3 and visibility still too limite...
>A release that is unlikely to move the needle - Nokian Tyres has published Q3 2024 results in line on the operational front (-1% on SOI at € 30m) despite weaker sales growth (+14%) than expected (-7% vs consensus € 314m), buoyed by the better-than-expected performance in passenger car tyres (better costs on higher volumes, mostly raw materials and supply-chain related). However, under the SOI, unadjusted EBIT came in well below expectations at just € 4m (consensus at...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Nokian Renkaat Oyj : Un T3 sans grande saveur et une visibilité toujou...
>Une publication qui ne fait pas beaucoup avancer… - Nokian Tyres a publié des résultats T3 2024 en ligne sur le plan opérationnel (-1% sur le SOI à 30 M€) malgré un CA en croissance (+14%) mais plus faible qu’attendu (-7% vs consensus à 314 M€), porté par la performance meilleure que prévu dans les pneus tourisme (hausse des volumes et baisse des coûts matières). Sous le SOI, l’EBIT non ajusté est toutefois ressorti bien en deçà des attentes à seulement 4 M€ (consen...
- Miika Ihamaki
Nokian Tyres (Hold, TP: EUR8.80) - Mixed Q3
Nokian Tyres reported a mixed Q3 as sales disappointed, while PCT’s (passenger car tyres’) clean EBIT margin was stronger on improved volumes and a continued raw-material tailwind, adjusted for inventory writedowns of delayed contract-manufactured tyres (related to the Red Sea crisis). We reiterate our HOLD but have trimmed our target price to EUR8.8 (9.0), on minor estimate changes.
- Miika Ihamaki
Nokian Tyres (Hold, TP: EUR9.00) - All eyes on crucial winter season
Despite low comparable figures and improved winter-tyre channels YOY, we are cautious ahead of the Q3 report as: 1) consensus is for c17% organic growth for H2, while peers have reported low-to-mid-single-digit sales trends; 2) we believe weak new car sales in Europe could hit winter-tyre demand (often sold as add-ons); and 3) consumers may have continued to favour budget over premium tyres. However, we have raised our target price to EUR9.0 (8.5) on good progress in ramping up new capacity, and...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
ODDO : Software Defined Vehicle (SDV): the next revolution
The growing importance of software, which will be further enhanced by SDV, could be even more disruptive to the automotive sector than electrification. In this report, we take a closer look at the main challenges and opportunities of this technological breakthrough, while on the stock market front, the current negative perception of traditional OEMs (discount at historic levels) seems to us to represent an upside risk, provided the latter make progress in terms of execution. Conv...
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
RNO RENAULT SA
EO FAURECIA SA
DAI DAIMLER AG
POM PLASTIC OMNIUM SE
TYRES NOKIAN RENKAAT OYJ
FR VALEO SE
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
CIE CIE AUTOMOTIVE S.A.
RACE FERRARI NV
PIRC PIRELLI & C. S.P.A.
GEST GESTAMP AUTOMOCION S.A.
AML ASTON MARTIN LAGONDA GLOBAL HOLDINGS
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
VTSC VITESCO TECHNOLOGIES GRP AG
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
ALIV SDB AUTOLIV INC.
BRE BREMBO S.P.A.
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
ODDO : Software Defined Vehicle (SDV): la prochaine révolution
L’importance croissante du logiciel, amenée à se matérialiser encore davantage via le SDV, pourrait bouleverser le secteur automobile encore plus que ne le fait l’électrification. Nous revenons ici sur les principaux enjeux de cette rupture technologique alors que, sur le plan boursier, la perception actuelle négative autour des constructeurs traditionnels (décote à des niveaux historiques) nous semble créer un risque à la hausse, pour peu que ces derniers progressent sur l’exécu...
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
RNO RENAULT SA
EO FAURECIA SA
DAI DAIMLER AG
POM PLASTIC OMNIUM SE
TYRES NOKIAN RENKAAT OYJ
FR VALEO SE
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
CIE CIE AUTOMOTIVE S.A.
RACE FERRARI NV
PIRC PIRELLI & C. S.P.A.
GEST GESTAMP AUTOMOCION S.A.
AML ASTON MARTIN LAGONDA GLOBAL HOLDINGS
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
VTSC VITESCO TECHNOLOGIES GRP AG
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
ALIV SDB AUTOLIV INC.
BRE BREMBO S.P.A.
- Florent Laroche-Joubert
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 22/07/2024
As a leader in plastic pallet recycling, Cabka currently operates in a rather tough macro environment which we expect to persist, at least for the short term. However we see silver linings in terms of margin expansion, roll back in Capex costs and tight working capital management which will lead to strong free cashflow generation soon. Though with pressure on sales persisting, (we reduce our estimates), Cabka to us is a margin expansion and positive free cashflow generation story, he...
- Florent Laroche-Joubert
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 07/22/2024
As a leader in plastic pallet recycling, Cabka currently operates in a rather tough macro environment which we expect to persist, at least for the short term. However we see silver linings in terms of margin expansion, roll back in Capex costs and tight working capital management which will lead to strong free cashflow generation soon. Though with pressure on sales persisting, (we reduce our estimates), Cabka to us is a margin expansion and positive free cashflow generation story, he...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Nokian Renkaat Oyj : Another uninspiring quarter, FY targets still (to...
>Q2 earnings weak but broadly in line, sharp improvement hoped for in H2 - Nokian Tyres reported Q2 2024 results in line with (cautious) consensus expectations with sales of € 325m (+11% at constant FX) and Segment EBIT of € 20m (operating margin 6.2%), also penalised once again by external factors (strikes in Finland, Red Sea headwinds), albeit to a lesser extent than in Q1 (€ 20m impact on EBITDA in H1 with >50% in Q1). Otherwise, the 2024 guidance (significant incr...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Nokian Renkaat Oyj : Un T2 encore difficile, des objectifs annuels tou...
>Résultats globalement en ligne, nette amélioration espérée au S2 - Nokian Tyres a publié des résultats T2 2024 en ligne avec les attentes (prudentes) du consensus avec un CA de 325 M€ (+11% à FX constant) et un EBIT ajusté de 20 M€ (MOP de 6.2%), à nouveau pénalisé par des facteurs externes (grèves en Finlande, impacts Mer Rouge), toutefois à un degré moindre qu’au T1 (20 M€ d’impact sur l’EBITDA au S1 dont >50% au T1). Au-delà, les objectifs communiqués pour 2024 (h...
- Miika Ihamaki
Nokian Tyres (Hold, TP: EUR8.50) - Neutral gear in Q2
We consider the Q2 results as fairly neutral, broadly in line with consensus, despite slightly softer earnings quality due to the small PCT miss. The guidance and outlook were unchanged, while raw materials costs are expected to gradually rise, which should not come as a major surprise, with the company exhibiting good pricing power to offset this. We reiterate our HOLD and EUR8.50 target price, following small cuts to our 2024–2026e clean EPS.
- Miika Ihamaki
Nokian Tyres (Hold, TP: EUR8.50) - Below consensus for Q2e
We expect a muted Q2, still burdened by additional logistics and warehouse costs. We are c13% below consensus on Q2e clean EBIT, after shifting our expectations on back-end loaded profit generation. Encouragingly, the company is making headway in rebuilding its capacity, although we believe risks remain. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to EUR8.5 (9) on minor estimate revisions.
- Jean Danjou
- Oliver Metzger
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 30/04/2024 Date Performance dep...
L’offre de BHP sur Anglo American a confirmé l’intérêt des minières pour le cuivre dans un contexte de tensions croissantes sur la production et de difficultés à faire aboutir les projets. Les perspectives d’Anglo (Neutre) dans le cuivre sont désormais mieux valorisées, c’est aussi le cas de BHP (Neutre vs Sous-performance) mais pas encore assez, selon nous, sur Rio Tinto (Surperformance vs Neutre). En aval, Nexans et Montana Aerospace sont nos valeurs préférées (Surperformance) vs Au...
CRI CHARGEURS SA
VCT VICAT-CIMENTS VICAT SA
FLY SOCIETE FONCIERE LYONNAISE SA
TYRES NOKIAN RENKAAT OYJ
VETO VETOQUINOL SA
BAMNB KONINKLIJKE BAM GROEP NV
BIG BIGBEN INTERACTIVE SA
GMM GRAMMER AG
FIE FIELMANN AG
DEZ DEUTZ AG
VLK VAN LANSCHOT KEMPEN NV CERT. OF SHS
ARCAD ARCADIS NV
FCC FOMENTO DE CONSTRUCCIONES Y CONTRATAS S.A.
ROYAL VOPAK NV
PSG PROSEGUR COMPANIA DE SEGURIDAD SA
FTG111 FLATEXDEGIRO AG
UNI UNICAJA BANCO S.A.
MOR MORPHOSYS AG
NFN NFON AG
WAVE WAVESTONE SA
NACON NACON SASU
ALHRS HYDROGEN REFUELING SOLUTIONS
ANTIN ANTIN INFRASTRUCTURE PARTNERS
FPE3 FUCHS PETROLUB SE
EXN EXCLUSIVE NETWORKS SA
WAGA WAGA ENERGY SA
- Jean Danjou
- Oliver Metzger
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 04/30/2024
BHP's bid for Anglo American has confirmed interest from miners in copper in the context of increasingly challenged production and difficulties in fully completing projects. Anglo’s (Neutral) prospects in copper are now better valued and this is also the case for BHP (Neutral vs Underperform) although not so for Rio Tinto (Outperform vs Neutral). Downstream, Nexans and Montana Aerospace are our Top Picks (Outperform) vs Aurubis, Rexel and Prysmian (Neutral). - ...
CRI CHARGEURS SA
VCT VICAT-CIMENTS VICAT SA
FLY SOCIETE FONCIERE LYONNAISE SA
TYRES NOKIAN RENKAAT OYJ
VETO VETOQUINOL SA
BAMNB KONINKLIJKE BAM GROEP NV
BIG BIGBEN INTERACTIVE SA
GMM GRAMMER AG
FIE FIELMANN AG
DEZ DEUTZ AG
VLK VAN LANSCHOT KEMPEN NV CERT. OF SHS
ARCAD ARCADIS NV
FCC FOMENTO DE CONSTRUCCIONES Y CONTRATAS S.A.
ROYAL VOPAK NV
PSG PROSEGUR COMPANIA DE SEGURIDAD SA
FTG111 FLATEXDEGIRO AG
UNI UNICAJA BANCO S.A.
MOR MORPHOSYS AG
NFN NFON AG
WAVE WAVESTONE SA
NACON NACON SASU
ALHRS HYDROGEN REFUELING SOLUTIONS
ANTIN ANTIN INFRASTRUCTURE PARTNERS
FPE3 FUCHS PETROLUB SE
EXN EXCLUSIVE NETWORKS SA
WAGA WAGA ENERGY SA
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Nokian Renkaat Oyj : Début d’année plus difficile que prévu
>Résultats inférieurs aux attentes mais guidance confirmée - Nokian Tyres a publié des résultats T1 2024 nettement inférieurs à nos attentes et celles du consensus avec un CA seulement stable à 237 M€ (consensus 265 M€) et un EBIT ajusté de -15 M€ (consensus +4 M€, ODDO BHF -3 M€), notamment pénalisé par des facteurs externes (grèves en Finlande, impacts Mer Rouge) qui ont davantage impacté sa production que ce que nous anticipions (impact CA de ~25 M€ au T1) et qui ...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Nokian Renkaat Oyj : A tougher start to the year than expected
>Earnings short of estimates but guidance confirmed - Nokian Tyres reported Q1 2024 earnings far below our estimates and those of the consensus with sales merely stable at € 237m (consensus € 265m and adjusted EBIT of -€ 15m (consensus +€ 4m, ODDO BHF -€ 3m), notably penalised by external factors (strikes in Finland, disruptions in the Red Sea) which have hit the group’s production harder than we expected (sales impact of ~€ 25m in Q1), and which should continue to af...
- Miika Ihamaki
Nokian Tyres (Hold, TP: EUR9.00) - Soft Q1, with or without setbacks
The Q1 results were below our expectations, even after adjusting for the negatives on the group profit from the political strikes in Finland and the Red Sea conflict. On a positive note, the PCT price/mix was guided to hold up well, partly offsetting our revised lower sales expectations, while the Romanian factory appears to be ramping up on schedule. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to EUR9.0 (9.5), after lowering our 2024–2026e clean EBIT by c6% on average.
- Miika Ihamaki
Nokian Tyres (Hold, TP: EUR9.50) - Directionally better
For 2024, Nokian Tyres is set to see a boost in capacity, but most of the increase should stem from less-profitable contract manufacturing, leaving limited upside potential to consensus, in our view. For Q1, we expect reiterated 2024 guidance on slightly improved sell-in trends and an update on capacity expansion. We reiterate our HOLD but have nudged up our target price to EUR9.5 (9.0).
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