reports
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Ageas: The Saga continues. ASM International: KKR reportedly interested in ASM PT. D'Ieteren: Belron €8.1bn debt financing at better rates than expected. Elia: Challenges ahead, CEO appointment necessary. Gimv: €150-250m bond issue by Gimv controlling anchor investor WorxInvest. PostNL: Preparation letter on future of Dutch mail market sent to Parliament. Vonovia: Good progress on disposals
- Wim Lewi
Elia Group Analyst Day Take-Aways
Elia hosted its first Analyst day on the site of its National Control Center (NCC) in Vilvoorde (BXL). Elia intended mainly to educate Analysts on its operations, but also provided a Q&A session with the (interim) CEO and CFO. A new CEO is expected before the year end. Elia is examining different scenario's on the equity needs. There is a lot of noise at the moment with a new government shift in BE, potential early elections in GE and the pending sale of Tennet. The visit to the NCC gave a perfe...
- Baptiste Salaville
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Michael B. Schäfer
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 02/10/2024
Rechutant début septembre à cause des inquiétudes sur un risque de récession aux USA, les marchés actions se sont ensuite repris grâce au pivot de la Fed et au plan de relance chinois qu’on n’attendait plus. La baisse des taux courts permet de mettre fin à l’inversion de la courbe sur les rendements souverains. Autos, Energy et Healthcare ont nettement sous-performé le Stoxx 600. Demain, la Golden Week, l’élection US et le budget français seront clés pour une poursuite de la progressi...
- Baptiste Salaville
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Michael B. Schäfer
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 10/02/2024
Falling back sharply in early September due to concerns about a risk of recession in the US, equity markets then recovered thanks to the Fed's pivot and the Chinese stimulus plan that was no longer expected. The fall in short-term rates did put an end to the inversion of the curve on sovereign yields. Autos, energy and healthcare significantly underperformed the Stoxx 600. To come, Golden Week, the US election and the French budget will be key to a continued market progress. With, of ...
- Thijs Berkelder
Elia Group : Not yet a new CEO but on track to deliver on its growth p...
>Feedback analyst day - Yesterday, Elia Group held its Analyst Day in its Belgian National Control Centre in Schaerbeek, near Brussel. Next to the expanded IR team also present were interim-CEO Catherine Vandenborre and interim-CFO Marco Nix. Selection new CEO takes more time. Where analysts were hoping for a surprise CEO reveal party, reality is that Elia is still busy with the selection of a new CEO preferable having experience in an international industrial gr...
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Quirijn Mulder
Elia/Rapid growth/HOLD
Elia is a good company in the sweetspot of the EU's ambitious plans to have one European electricity network and with Germany-specific plans to replace nuclear power with wind. Elia's asset base is growing fast, with €31bn in capex until FY28 being more than quadruple the FY19-23 level. This is good for profitability in its regulatory framework. While its growth means that the company deserves a premium to its peers, at the same time Elia falls >60% short of the dividend yield offered by peers. ...
- Maxime Stranart
- Stijn Demeester
Recticel/Volumes growth back on the agenda/BUY
We reiterate our BUY and increase our target price from €15 to €16 following Recticel's 1H24 results, to reflect a lower WACC and broadly stable estimates. We remain convinced by the medium-to-long term potential of the Insulation market - this should provide Recticel with ample room to grow organically and, thanks to its net cash position, through M&A. We view future acquisitions as a key catalyst for the share price over the short term, as these would confirm the ambition of the group to mater...
- Nadège Tillier
Elia/Holding tight
The Elia Group's results for the first six months of 2024 showed some growth and management upgraded its bottom-line guidance for year-end 2024. The group's capital expenditure reached €1,736m and should total €4,700m by the end of the year. A substantial part of the investments requires new financial debt and mitigating measures, such as additional capital increases. We expect new bond issuance on the € market to be regular in order to finance capex and redemptions. Elia issues bonds at three e...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
ING Benelux Conference London: Aalberts, Arcadis, Azelis, Barco, Basic-Fit, Brunel International, DEME Group, Euronext, Fagron, Heijmans, Kinepolis, Lotus Bakeries, Melexis, Ontex, Randstad, Recticel, SBM Offshore, TKH Group, Van Lanschot Kempen Other company stories - OCI: Divestment of Methanol to Methanex for US$2.05bn, Staffing: US August temp volumes marginally better trend; NFP jobs miss
BFIT BASIC-FIT NV
SBMO SBM OFFSHORE NV
FAGR FAGRON SA
RAND RANDSTAD NV
LOTB LOTUS BAKERIES NV
REC RECTICEL SA
HEIJM HEIJMANS N.V. CERT
VLK
ARCAD VAN LANSCHOT KEMPEN NV CERT. OF SHS
AALB ARCADIS NV
OCI AALBERTS N.V.
BRNL OCI NV
ONTEX BRUNEL INTERNATIONAL N.V.
MELE ONTEX GROUP N.V.
TWEKA MELEXIS NV
KIN TKH GROUP N.V. CERT
BAR KINEPOLIS GROUP NV
AZE BARCO NV
DEME AZELIS GROUP NV
DEME GROUP NV
- Nadège Tillier
Eurogrid/Fairly valued
Part of the Elia Group, Eurogrid is one of the electricity transmission utilities in Germany. We look back at the company's 1H24 results published earlier during the summer. 1H24 financials saw some cash flow generation expansion but also a swelling debt. With capital expenditure of €1.3bn in the first six months of 2024, the utility expects to spend a total of €3.3bn in investments by the end of the year. At LTM 1H24, capex represented 332% of EBITDA, reflecting the gap between cash flow genera...
- Jacob Mekhael
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Recticel Model update – Structural growth drivers but no ST support fr...
We have finetuned our earnings model post the 1H24 results release, with adjusted EBITDA forecasts for FY24-26 lowered by between 2% and 5%, reflecting the competitive landscape (mainly in the Boards business). Despite the reduced forecasts, we still expect Recticel to grow adjusted EBITDA by c. 31% in FY24 and by 19% in FY25, benefiting from savings initiatives and the Rex integration & growth. Building markets are bottoming out, but we do not expect meaningful improvement in momentum until 202...
- Wim Hoste
Recticel Feedback conference call
Below are the highlights from the 1H results conference call. On the back of double digit underlying volume growth, 1H Adj EBITDA jumped by 38% to € 25.1m, which was roughly in line with our forecast and c 3m above consensus. Although Recticel expects to have seen the market bottom in Western Europe whilst noting an improvement in the UK, FY guidance of around € 50m adjusted EBITDA is slightly below our and consensus forecasts of respectively € 52m and € 54m. Although we do believe in the longer...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Ackermans & van Haaren: Indian participation casts shadow over excellent result of core segments. ASML: Spotlight on export restrictions again. Basic-Fit: Dutch parliament persists in plans to raise VAT for oa Sports to 21%. CFE: Earnings quality improved in challenging markets. Eurocommercial Properties: Better numbers, guidance moved toward the higher end of the range. OCI: IFCO sale successfully closed, cash return unlocked Recticel: Solid 1H24 beat, FY guidance may disappoint. SIF Grou...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Recticel FIRST LOOK: 1H adj EBITDA +38%, FY guidance slightly below co...
On the back of double digit underlying volume growth, 1H Adj EBITDA jumped by 38% to € 25.1m, which was roughly in line with our forecast and c 3m above consensus. Although Recticel expects to have seen the market bottom in Western Europe whilst noting an improvement in the UK, FY guidance of around € 50m adjusted EBITDA is slightly below our and consensus forecasts of respectively € 52m and € 54m. Although we do believe in the longer term growth prospects of the insulation market, short term mu...
- Thijs Berkelder
Elia Group : Time is right to look at upside potential again
Elia Group is on track with its large capex (€ 4.7bn) and funding roll-out for 2024, making it also lift in its earnings outlook for the year. Having underperformed the general equity market year-to-date by around 23%, the time in our view now is right to start looking again at the Elia Group share. Assuming that (1) the new CEO will be presented before end of 24Q3, (2) an updated larger capex plan in 24Q4, and (3) the long awaited equity raise to be government supported in 25H1...
- ING Helpdesk
- Lynn Hautekeete
Ascencio 3Q24 results slightly above estimates, Intermarché at 18%
Ascencio reports 3Q24 results slightly above our estimates. The uptick is mainly driven by a higher than expected like-for-like growth. The occupancy rate remained stable at 97.7% vs 98.6 % at 1H24. The like-for-like growth is strong and above inflation at 4.5% (+4.9% BE, 4.1% FR, -5.1% SP). At 1H24 results we increased our TP from EUR 51.0 to EUR 52.0 on the back of a 3% EPRA EPS increase and lower than expected financial costs. Ascencio is an interesting dividend stock which offers a good risk...
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