SamhAllsbyggnadsbolaget I Norden AB: 1 director

A director at SamhAllsbyggnadsbolaget I Norden AB bought 1,000,000 shares at 7.084SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over t...

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Sector optimism

In the past week, Citycon divested a retail asset in Norway, Logistea updated its financial targets following the merger with KMC Properties, Cibus carried out a rights issue as it is targeting M&A in the daily-goods property sector, and we saw sector optimism at DNB’s Nordic Real Estate & Construction Conference. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.21% for 2024e and 4.65% for 2025e.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Bonds, market data and investments

This week, Castellum issued a EUR500m bond loan, and according to Bloomberg, Catena is contemplating launching 1–2 green bonds next week. Pandox acquired another UK asset, Logista and Public Property Invest look set to join the FTSE EPRA index, and finally, August data for Swedish and Norwegian house prices and commercial transaction volumes was published. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.26% for 2024e and 4.70% for 2025e.

Small Cap Miner – August 2024

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Buy the consolidator

Castellum (Buy, TP: SEK155.00) - Yield gap is back

We have upgraded Castellum to BUY (HOLD) in light of falling market interest rates, and as it has lagged behind the sector YTD. We consider the 2025–2026e P/FFO of 14–13x appealing (peers at 17–16x), and note that its implied yield gap (implied yield – 5Y SEK swap rate) is near its historical average, giving valuation support in our view. We see positive indications from the credit market, with downside potential for credit margins; a potential catalyst could be if Castellum again issues an EUR ...

Nyfosa (Buy, TP: SEK125.00) - Ride the momentum

We have upgraded Nyfosa to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to SEK125 (120) following a decline in market interest rates. We expect it to enjoy some of the strongest FFOPS growth momentum in our sector coverage, and see an increased probability for our bull-case M&A scenario. However, given the ongoing CEO recruitment process, we believe a ramp-up of M&A activity could take a few quarters. The stock is trading at a 2026e P/FFO of 14.1x, or 12.6x in our bull-case scenario.

Hufvudstaden up to HOLD, layoffs in construction sector and rate cut

This week we upgraded Hufuvdstaden to HOLD following its Q2 results, JM is laying off 145 employees, and the Riksbank cut the policy rate by 25bp to 3.50%. While we retain our neutral stance on the Swedish real estate sector, we have turned slightly more positive since last month’s reduction in long-term market interest rates. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.27% for 2024e and 4.71% for 2025e.

Hufvudstaden (Hold, TP: SEK132.00) - Up to HOLD due to lower rates and...

We have upgraded to HOLD (SELL) and increased our target price to SEK132 (115) following Q2 results with PFPM fully in line with our forecast, while key positives were an improved vacancy rate to 7.9% (versus 9.2% in Q1). We have raised our 2025–2026e FFOPS by 4–8% mainly on an updated interest cost forecast.

Earnings miss and negative rent reversion

Fastighets AB Balder: 1 director

A director at Fastighets AB Balder sold 1,981,500 shares at 80.743SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years...

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Aurora Eiendom (Buy, TP: NOK110.00) - Vacancy rate up on terminations

With two lease terminations by a retailer in a bankruptcy protection restructuring in Q2, rental income and FFO disappointed. However, with one of the vacated stores already re-let from Q4, we believe the negative effects will be short-term. We reiterate our BUY and NOK110 target price.

More Q2 results and other news

The Q2 reporting season is again underway, following the summer break, with results from Olav Thon and Kojamo. In other news, Pandox announced it is considering a large UK investment, Norges Bank signalled the policy rate will not be cut near-term, and in Sweden, CPI has increased on an expected cut. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.29% for 2024e and 4.74% for 2025e.

Pandox AB: 1 director

A director at Pandox AB sold 4,312,188 shares at 185.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 87/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...

Olav Thon (Buy, TP: NOK265.00) - Indication of increased investments

Q2 FFOps was better than we expected on minor deviations, and we find the balance sheet strong with a LTV of 37% and available liquidity of cNOK7.8bn. Investment activity remains low, with just two minor JV developments in Q2, but the company indicated it expects to increase investments in the coming quarters, looking at new developments and transactions, where we expect the latter to be the most likely near-term. We reiterate our BUY and NOK265 target price.