Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK105.00) - Q3 beat, edging closer to targets

Q3 earnings outperformed expectations, and Orkla is making good progress towards its targets. We reiterate our HOLD as we view the stock as fairly valued, trading in line with our SOTP, but have raised our target price to NOK105 (100) on our positive estimate revisions.

Still serving it hot

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK100.00) - Underlying figures beat consensus

We consider this a slightly positive report for Orkla, including underlying figures above expectations, partly masked by write-downs, and no material change in outlook. We expect consensus 2024e adj. EBIT to come up 2–3% and believe a slightly positive share price reaction is warranted.

Rock solid beat

Core EBIT 8% better on 0.4pp higher EBIT margin and sales 3% better. Underlying '24 / '25 estm up 3-4%, stock up 4-5%

GM climbing, EBIT growing

Jotun, another solid quarter

EBIT for Jotun down 6% y-o-y (May - Aug), in line with cons. Outlook largely unchanged, but somwhat more cautious

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK100.00) - Organic growth and margin recovery set t...

We are slightly positive ahead of the Q3 results, expecting figures marginally above consensus, supported by continued organic growth and margin recovery. We reiterate our HOLD as we still find the valuation fair but have raised our target price to NOK100 (90), reflecting a sector revaluation.

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK90.00) - Q2 above, but weak mix

The Q2 results were better than expected, but with a weak mix as consolidated portfolio companies (CPC) were slightly below expectations on lower organic growth. Nevertheless, we find it constructive that volume growth remains positive, and the contribution margin continued to improve. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to NOK90 (87) on positive estimate revisions.

More is coming

Q2: Better on GM, sold volumes. Peers' margins have recovered – now it's Orkla's turn. Record-low valuation: P/E 13.5x. BUY, TP NOK 108 (105).

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK87.00) - Q2 slightly above

We consider this a positive report for Orkla, including group figures above expectations, and no material change in outlook. We expect consensus 2024e adj. EBIT to come up 1–3% on the back of the report and believe a positive share price reaction is warranted.

Beat and strong mix

Core EBIT 7.7% better on 0.9pp higher EBIT margin. As for Q1, outlook more pos: Volume/ raw material pressure easing. Estm up 8%, stock up 5-7%

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK87.00) - Improved contribution margins and volumes...

We are slightly positive ahead of the Q2 results (due at 07:00 CET on 15 July), expecting adj. EBIT 5% above consensus on slightly higher Orkla CPC revenues and margins and Hydropower EBIT. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to NOK87 (81) after increasing our estimates. At our target price the stock would be trading broadly in line with its historical average discount to our SOTP.

Let's get started

4-5% ahead for Q2e adj. EBIT on higher margins & better volumes. Margin recovery to surprise: EPS up ~6%, ABGSC now +8% vs cons. Record-low valuation: P/E 12-13x in '25/'26e. BUY, TP NOK 105 (90)

Orkla ASA: 1 director

A director at Orkla ASA bought 20,000 shares at 82.100NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sho...

Comeback kickoff

Q2 better on margins and volumes; earnings mix also strong. Further improvement in coming quarters on margin recovery. Record-low valuation: P/E 12-13x, SOTP at NOK 107/share.

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK81.00) - Signs of light

Orkla’s Q1 results were slightly above consensus, with positive developments in volume and gross margin. Nevertheless, we reiterate our HOLD and NOK81 target price, as we continue to find the valuation fair, and we have made only minor estimate revisions.

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK81.00) - Q1 slightly above consensus

We consider this a slightly positive report, including figures above consensus on higher-than-expected organic growth, a slight contribution-margin improvement, and no significant change in outlook. We expect 1–2% positive revisions to consensus 2024e adj. EBIT, and believe a slightly positive share price reaction is warranted.

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK81.00) - From gross margin to opex focus

We are slightly positive ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:00 CET on 3 May), expecting adj. EBIT 6% above consensus on marginally higher margins in the consolidated portfolio companies (CPC). We reiterate our HOLD and NOK81 target price.

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK81.00) - Early signs of margin recovery

Q4 disappointed; however, encouragingly, we believe there were early signs that the negative volume trend looks to be easing and margins seem to have troughed. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to NOK81 (85) on our negative estimate revisions.

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK85.00) - Weak Q4 with an improved outlook

We consider this a soft report, with figures below expectations due to weaker than expected margins and slightly positive outlook comments. We expect a 1–3% negative revision to consensus 2024 adj. EBIT on the back of the report and believe a slight negative share price reaction is warranted.