Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK110.00) - Colouring outside expectations

We expect Orkla to report Q1 EBIT broadly in line with consensus, but with net profit above on continued strength at Jotun. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK110 target price as we continue to find valuation fair, with the stock trading slightly below its historical discount to SOTP.

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK110.00) - Indian assets spice it up

The mixed Q4 report had results above expectations and some softness, as CPC was a bit below consensus on weak margins. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to NOK110 (105), as a revaluation of the Indian assets offsets slight estimate cuts.

Cash flowing freely

Core below, higher divi, takeout India next?

Core EBIT 5% better on lower sales / margin. Divi NOK 10 vs cons at 3.4. Outlook largely unchanged

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK105.00) - Hydropower assets fetch higher price tha...

This morning, Orkla announced it has agreed the sale of its hydropower assets for a total consideration of NOK6.1bn (NOK6.1/share) in two separate transactions. The price is well above our valuation (NOK3/share), and we expect a positive share-price reaction of 3% on the back of the announcement. The sale was widely expected and in line with Orkla’s strategy. We consider the transaction risk low.

Selling hydro for NOK 6.1/sh, likely divi

Selling hydro power for NOK 6.1/sh, ~50% above our SOTP. Likely to come as extraordinarily divi

Profits wrapped, margins unpacked

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK105.00) - Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates to reflect the higher-than-expected volumes and prices for Hydro Power announced by Orkla in its pre-close update for Q4 this morning. We have raised our 2024e adj. EBIT by 1%, and we now forecast Q4 adj. EBIT of NOK1,923m, 1% above consensus (results due at 07:00 CET on 13 February). We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our HOLD recommendation. We reiterate our NOK105 target price.

Orkla ASA: 1 director

A director at Orkla ASA maiden bought 10,000 shares at 98.550NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 58/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK105.00) - India’s sweetness versus cocoa’s increas...

We are slightly negative ahead of the Q4 report, expecting results below consensus on slightly lower revenue growth and margins. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK105 target price, as we continue to find the valuation fair.

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK105.00) - Q3 beat, edging closer to targets

Q3 earnings outperformed expectations, and Orkla is making good progress towards its targets. We reiterate our HOLD as we view the stock as fairly valued, trading in line with our SOTP, but have raised our target price to NOK105 (100) on our positive estimate revisions.

Still serving it hot

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK100.00) - Underlying figures beat consensus

We consider this a slightly positive report for Orkla, including underlying figures above expectations, partly masked by write-downs, and no material change in outlook. We expect consensus 2024e adj. EBIT to come up 2–3% and believe a slightly positive share price reaction is warranted.

Rock solid beat

Core EBIT 8% better on 0.4pp higher EBIT margin and sales 3% better. Underlying '24 / '25 estm up 3-4%, stock up 4-5%

GM climbing, EBIT growing

Jotun, another solid quarter

EBIT for Jotun down 6% y-o-y (May - Aug), in line with cons. Outlook largely unchanged, but somwhat more cautious

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK100.00) - Organic growth and margin recovery set t...

We are slightly positive ahead of the Q3 results, expecting figures marginally above consensus, supported by continued organic growth and margin recovery. We reiterate our HOLD as we still find the valuation fair but have raised our target price to NOK100 (90), reflecting a sector revaluation.

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK90.00) - Q2 above, but weak mix

The Q2 results were better than expected, but with a weak mix as consolidated portfolio companies (CPC) were slightly below expectations on lower organic growth. Nevertheless, we find it constructive that volume growth remains positive, and the contribution margin continued to improve. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to NOK90 (87) on positive estimate revisions.

More is coming

Q2: Better on GM, sold volumes. Peers' margins have recovered – now it's Orkla's turn. Record-low valuation: P/E 13.5x. BUY, TP NOK 108 (105).

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK87.00) - Q2 slightly above

We consider this a positive report for Orkla, including group figures above expectations, and no material change in outlook. We expect consensus 2024e adj. EBIT to come up 1–3% on the back of the report and believe a positive share price reaction is warranted.