Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK81.00) - From gross margin to opex focus

We are slightly positive ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:00 CET on 3 May), expecting adj. EBIT 6% above consensus on marginally higher margins in the consolidated portfolio companies (CPC). We reiterate our HOLD and NOK81 target price.

Orkla ASA: 1 director

A director at Orkla ASA bought 12,930 shares at 76.300NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 51/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sho...

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK81.00) - Early signs of margin recovery

Q4 disappointed; however, encouragingly, we believe there were early signs that the negative volume trend looks to be easing and margins seem to have troughed. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to NOK81 (85) on our negative estimate revisions.

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK85.00) - Weak Q4 with an improved outlook

We consider this a soft report, with figures below expectations due to weaker than expected margins and slightly positive outlook comments. We expect a 1–3% negative revision to consensus 2024 adj. EBIT on the back of the report and believe a slight negative share price reaction is warranted.

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK85.00) - Set for CPC margin recovery in Q4

We are positive ahead of the Q4 results (due at 07:00 CET on 8 February), expecting adj. EBIT 19% above consensus, largely reflecting a margin recovery in CPC and continued strong price-driven organic growth. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK85 target price.

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK85.00) - CMD takeaways

Orkla’s financial targets for the consolidated portfolio companies (CPC) were broadly in line with our expectations, with greater visibility on potential asset sales, as Orkla is exploring opportunities to crystallise value for assets worth NOK19/share in our SOTP. We have made minor estimate revisions and reiterate our NOK85 target price, but have downgraded to HOLD (BUY), as we find the valuation fair.

Orkla (Buy, TP: NOK85.00) - Long-awaited CMD

Orkla is set to host its CMD in London on 29 November. We believe the event should represent an opportunity for Orkla to increase investor confidence in its transformation to an investment company and EBIT growth for CPC. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to NOK85 (78), reflecting our slightly positive estimate revisions and narrowed discount to our SOTP.

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK78.00) - Biscuit blues, margin woes

The Q3 results were in line with our expectations, but the mix was weak and the margin trend disappointing. We reiterate our HOLD but have lowered our target price to NOK78 (83). At our target price Orkla would be trading in line with its historical discount to our updated SOTP reflecting the 40% sale of OFI.

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK84.00) - Times are changing

Orkla (ORK NO, Hold) - Times are changing (48 pages)

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK80.00) - Q2 above

We consider this a positive report for Orkla, including results above consensus and no material change in the outlook. We expect 2–3% positive revisions to consensus 2023e adj. EBIT on the report and believe a positive share price reaction is warranted.

Northern Lights

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK80.00) - H2 likely to be highlight of Q2

We are 2% above consensus on Q2e EBIT (results due at 07:00 CET on 14 July), expecting BCG EBIT in line with consensus but a higher contribution from Hydropower. We expect focus in the presentation to be on the ongoing restructuring and outlook for a margin recovery in BCG in H2. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK80 target price.

Northern Lights

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK80.00) - Better than expected Q1

We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to NOK80 (74) on positive estimate revisions on the better than expected Q1 results. Although we find the strong organic growth in Q1 encouraging near-term, the weak volume trend with market share loss to private label is a concern in the medium term.

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK74.00) - Q1 above on higher organic growth

We consider this a positive report for Orkla, including figures above expectations due to higher organic growth, primarily driven by price and strong figures from Jotun. We expect 3–5% positive changes to consensus 2023 adj. EBIT on the back of the report and believe a positive share price reaction is warranted.

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK74.00) - Still facing some headwinds

We expect Orkla to report weak Q1 results (due at 07:00 CET on 9 May), in line with consensus, with the soft margin trend in BCG yet to turn. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to NOK74 (70) on slightly positive estimate revisions.

Northern Lights

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK70.00) - Underlying trend remains weak

Orkla’s Q4 report disappointed on weak results and a soft outlook, with cost inflation and lower volumes putting pressure on margins. We reiterate our HOLD but have lowered our target price to NOK70 (75) after cutting our 2023–2024e EPS by 8–10%.

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK75.00) - Weak report and outlook

We consider this a weak report for Orkla, including figures below expectations and a soft outlook. We expect consensus EBIT to come down by 2% for 2022e and 3–5% for 2023e. We believe a negative share price reaction is warranted.

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK75.00) - Likely tepid Q4e

We are lukewarm ahead of Orkla’s Q4 results, expecting the figures to be broadly in line with consensus. Investors’ key focus in the report should be on the outlook for a margin recovery and progress of its transformation into an investment company. We reiterate our HOLD as we believe a greater discount to SOTP than its historical average is warranted given the weak operational performance and ongoing structural changes.