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ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Aalberts: highlights ING Benelux Conference Brussels 2024, Ackermans & Van Haaren: Highlights ING Benelux Conference Brussels,Ackermans & Van Haaren: Strong operational performance of underlying companies and guidance fine-tuned upwards, AMG: Highlights ING Benelux Conference Brussels, Aperam: Highlights ING Benelux Conference Brussels, Arcadis: Highlights ING Benelux conference, Azelis: Highlights ING Benelux Conference Brussels, Bekaert: Guidance cut and €200m buyback as sweetener, CFE: No new...

Martijn Den Drijver
  • Martijn Den Drijver

TKH GROUP NV : Not 100% de-risked yet, estimates and TP lowered again

>Lowering estimates modestly, 2024 EBITA guidance still at risk - We have updated our estimates after the Q3 2024 earnings release, which disappointed and caused the full year EBITA guidance to be lowered, as we had feared. We are lowering our 2024-2026 sales estimates by 2%-3% and our 2024-2026 EBITAe by 3%, reflecting a continued cautious stance on Smart Vision and several businesses in Smart Connectivity. For 2024, we are now forecasting an EBITAe of €203m, which i...

Tijs Hollestelle
  • Tijs Hollestelle

TKH Group/We can only change our expectations/BUY

TKH published yet another disappointing set of results. 3Q24 EBITA was around 16% below our forecast and TKH lowered its FY24 EBITA guidance by roughly 5% taking the mid-point of the guidance. Our previous forecasts were rather optimistic as we anticipated significantly higher revenue in the Connectivity division from offshore cable production, covering the already increased fixed cost base. But TKH had to postpone the ramp up of the new offshore wind cable factory in 3Q due to start-up issues. ...

Jacob Mekhael ... (+2)
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Thibault Leneeuw
Martijn Den Drijver
  • Martijn Den Drijver

TKH GROUP NV : Weak Q3, 2024 EBITA guidance lowered

>Weak sales, EBITA and EBITA margins in Q3 - Continued setbacks in Smart Connectivity and Smart Vision are the key reason for a weak Q3 for TKH. Sales came in at €393m or a miss of 9% versus our estimates (no css) with organic growth coming in at -6.2% where we had anticipated positive growth of 1.2%. Due to the lower sales volumes and start-up costs in Smart Connectivity and despite good progress on the €15m cost savings program, EBITA came in at €42.1m or a miss of ...

Martijn Den Drijver
  • Martijn Den Drijver

TKH GROUP NV : Preview Q3 + lowered 2024-2026 estimates and TP

>Cautiousness Vision + Manufacturing results in lower 2024-2026 estimates - We had not updated our forecast for TKH since the Q1 2024 trading update and H1 2024 results release: mea culpa. So although not ideal, we are using this preview to update our estimates. Given the disappointing H1 2024 results and 2024 guidance, we lower our estimates materially. We lower our 2024 to 2026 sales forecast by 3% to 8% and our EBITA estimates by 16% to 19%. For 2024, we now forec...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ahold Delhaize: A strong 3Q24, driven by Europe. CFE: 3Q24 preview - able to keep net profit outlook? CTP: Good results, guidance reiterated. DEME Group: 3Q24 preview - keeping the FY outlook. Exor: Ferrari hitting Chinese wall. IBA: Contract win for E-beam sterilisation solution in the Dominican Republic. Kendrion: 3Q24 preview - harsh end markets but easy comps. Proximus: 2025 price increases on the high side, more asset sales in the pipeline. Solvay: 3Q24 results beat by 4% bu...

Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thibault Leneeuw

TKH Group Model update, reducing 2H24 outlook

In this note we update our 2024 numbers, with no adjustments in growth rates as of 2025. This results in a revenue reduction of 1.5% in 2024. Furthermore, we adjust our margins based on the recent developments. EBITA decreases with 7% in 2024, 4% in 2025 and 3% in 2026. However, no impact on our DCF based valuation, as 2% lower EBITA by 2030 is offset by lower interest rates. Therefore, we maintain our TP of € 55 per share and maintain our Buy Recommendation. We expect a revaluation in 2025, due...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

ING Benelux Conference London: Aalberts, Arcadis, Azelis, Barco, Basic-Fit, Brunel International, DEME Group, Euronext, Fagron, Heijmans, Kinepolis, Lotus Bakeries, Melexis, Ontex, Randstad, Recticel, SBM Offshore, TKH Group, Van Lanschot Kempen Other company stories - OCI: Divestment of Methanol to Methanex for US$2.05bn, Staffing: US August temp volumes marginally better trend; NFP jobs miss

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Euronext: Dog Days of Summer. TKH Group: Weak 2Q, FY outlook comes in below

Michiel Declercq ... (+2)
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thibault Leneeuw
Martijn Den Drijver
  • Martijn Den Drijver

TKH GROUP NV : Disappointing H1 2024 results and 2024 EBITA guidance

>Disappointing H1 results, mainly at the EBITA (margin) level - Although the results of TKH improved in Q2 2024 over Q1 2024, the overall H1 2024 results disappoint. Sales were in line but EBITA missed css by 5% with the EBITA margin coming in at 11.0% versus css at 11.7% (AOe 11.4%). Adjusted net profit came in at €45m which is a miss of 15%. Net debt came in lower than expected (€575m vs css €610m) but were higher than we had pencilled in (AOe €547m) as there was a ...

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