Veidekke (Hold, TP: NOK160.00) - Seasonal low despite mild winter

Q1 is typically the low season for Veidekke on Nordic winter effects and a seasonal EBIT margin decline in the Infrastructure division (including asphalt). Despite the mild winter in the Nordics in Q1, we expect the positive impact to be limited as weather effects tend to affect Q4 more than Q1. We expect zero EPS for Q1. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK160 target price.

Veidekke (Hold, TP: NOK160.00) - DPS beat, but valuation getting fair

The reported Q4 EPS was 5% below our forecast, but 3% above when adjusted for a Swedish goodwill write-down. The company proposed a NOK9 DPS for 2024, given its strong net cash position. We have made minor forecast changes, but as we publish 2027 estimates, we have rolled forward our valuation, and raised our target price to NOK160 (155) but downgraded to HOLD (BUY).

Better orders

Headline figures and dividend above

Q4e: Improving market outlook

Construction markets at the bottom

Wide peer valuation range on market recovery expectations

Various waves of expectations for a recovery in newbuild markets have led to volatility in the sector, but an upwards share-price trend overall. Although we still await proof the new-volume market (both residential and commercial) is recovering, consensus is fuelled by falling rates. However, trailing profits under IFRS valuations are record-wide. We maintain a neutral sector view and stock-picking approach.

Veidekke (Buy, TP: NOK155.00) - Above consensus on Q4e EBIT

We are 5% above consensus EBIT and 6% above on EPS, assuming broadly flat EBIT margins YOY. Given Veidekke’s solid cash position, we continue to expect a high DPS ratio and attractive EV/EBIT. We expect M&A to be a key catalyst that could boost EBIT and EPS in 2025. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK155 (140) on updated peer valuation.

Steady and strong performance

Veidekke (Buy, TP: NOK140.00) - Q3 revenues below, EPS above

While Q3 revenues missed expectations, higher order intake than expected left the order backlog 10% above our estimate. Despite lower volumes, the EBIT margin beat our forecast, led by the Norwegian Infrastructure division, particularly its portfolio of large civil engineering orders and the asphalt operations. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our SOTP-based target price to NOK140 (135).

Sound performance, small beat, outlook better

Margins holding up despite lower production

KPIs and profits reflect cycle-lows

While the sector has rallied on expectations of a recovery in Nordic CRE and residential starts, there are no signs of an actual recovery yet. With our base case still for a gradual sales recovery in 2026, our longer-term estimates remain below consensus, reflecting slow profit-recognition under IFRS – the latter also underlies our expectation of declining revenues and EBIT YOY in Q3 for several names we cover. Our sector top picks are still Skanska, NCC and Veidekke, while we see downside risk ...

Veidekke (Buy, TP: NOK135.00) - Mixed Q2, 2024–2026e EPS raised

The Q2 results were mixed, with revenues and order intake below our forecasts, EBITDA in line, and EBIT and EPS above. We have reduced our 2024–2026e revenue, but raised EPS by c2–3% on strong EBIT margins. We reiterate our BUY and NOK135 target price.

Only Building Sweden left to turn

Asphalt profitability back to normal levels

Veidekke (Buy, TP: NOK135.00) - M&A and market boost for EPS

We have raised our 2024–2026e revenue and EPS to reflect the pending Euromining acquisition (2023 revenues of SEK750m according to Veidekke), as well as our increased Norwegian civil engineering forecasts and updated estimates for the Danish market. We are 6% above Infront consensus on Q2e EBIT, but just 2% above on EPS (results due at 07:00 CET on 15 August). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK135 (125).

Too solid for P/E 10x

Q2e: PTP NOK 440m vs. consensus at NOK 425m. '25e-'26e PTP estimates up ~4%. DPS = EPS = 8-9% dividend yield.

Expectations running ahead

We continue to see upside potential for diversified construction (Skanska, NCC and Veidekke), but downside risk for residential developers (YIT, JM, Peab and Selvaag Bolig) that have rallied on improving market expectations while new housing sales remains lacklustre. We await the adaptation of the recently EU-approved Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD). We see a mixed picture for EPS ahead of the Q2 reporting season. We keep a neutral sector view, and still recommend a stock-pickin...

Veidekke (Buy, TP: NOK125.00) - Low-season beat, and raised EPS

Veidekke avoided the usual Q1 seasonal loss, reporting EBIT of zero, beating our estimate and Infront consensus. Order intake was also strong, and broadly in line with expectations. Following the results, we have increased our 2024–2026e revenue by c2% and EBIT by c3.5–4%, but raised our EPS by c8–9% after also increasing our financial income estimates. In turn, we have raised our target price to NOK125 (120), and upgraded Veidekke to BUY (HOLD).