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Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Fortnox - Receives approval for its digital mailbox

“Kivra for businesses” will be launched before year-end We expect the initiative to enhance its stickiness… …but not trigger any estimate changes from consensus

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Fortnox - Y-o-y margin improvement to continue in Q4e

Organic growth momentum continues (+35% y-o-y) We keep ‘23e-‘24e EBIT largely intact 30% org. growth in ‘23e – we keep BUY, TP SEK 65

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Fortnox - Organic growth continues to improve well

2% sales beat vs. ABGSCe, +35% org. growth y-o-y Adj. EBIT 145m (ABGSCe SEK 138m, cons. SEK 144m) Positive est. revisions of 1-3%, share up similarly today

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Fortnox - Riding on price tailwinds: Q3e to be strong

Q3 report on Wednesday, 26 October ’23e-’24e sales down 2% on lower customer intake Reiterate BUY, TP SEK 65 (70), ~50% upside

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Fortnox - Reassured confidence from trade fair visit

Fortnox is the number-one player in Sweden (for SMEs) Most discussions were around automation & financing… …which Fortnox seems poised to capitalise on

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Fortnox - Well-positioned for tomorrow’s accounting market

AI-driven bookkeeping to improve the accounting industry FNOX poised to capitalise on strong relations with bureaus Strong H2 and 2023 outlook – reiterate BUY, TP SEK 70

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Fortnox - Newly registered companies keep growing

No. of new companies +14% in August, +6% y-o-y in July We expect solid net customer intake for ‘22… …but strong org. sales growth on the back of recent ARR

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Fortnox - Impressive ARR growth bodes well for H2

Organic growth momentum is picking up Fine-tuned estimate changes (-1% on ‘22e-‘23e EBIT) We stick to BUY on the long-term story – TP of SEK 70

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Fortnox - Organic growth accelerated in Q2

2% sales beat vs. ABGSCe, 28% org. growth y-o-y Adj. EBIT SEK 103m (ABGSCe 101m, cons. 98m) Low single-digit positive est. revisions, share up similarly

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Fortnox - Organic growth momentum picking up

Q2 report on Friday, 19 August Fine-tuned estimates, -1% on ‘22e-‘23e EBIT Reiterate BUY, TP SEK 70, ~19% upside

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Fortnox - Another piece to the puzzle

Acquires the remaining shares of Agoy… …which is a well-fitting piece to its offering Expect minor estimate changes from cons.

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Fortnox - Most accounting SW actors are hiking prices

Avg. prices are up 22% y-o-y (vs. Fortnox ~10%) We expect to see more price hikes SEK 149/product/month would add 27% to our ’23e EBIT

Douglas Lindahl ... (+16)
  • Douglas Lindahl
  • Frank Maaø
  • Håkon Astrup
  • Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
  • Jesper Ingildsen
  • Joachim Gunell
  • Johannes Grunselius
  • Martin Arnell
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Mattias Holmberg
  • Nicolas McBeath
  • Niklas Wetterling
  • Ole Martin Westgaard
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Patrik Ling
  • Tomi Railo
Joachim Gunell
  • Joachim Gunell

Fortnox (Buy, TP: SEK77.00) - Moving up a gear

The Q1 results demonstrated the inherent scalability of Fortnox’s business model, as accelerating organic revenue growth of 24% YOY translated into 45% EBIT drop-through to set up a 22% adj. EBIT beat to Bloomberg consensus. We expect EPS growth to accelerate to ~50% YOY in H2, with a tailwind from recent ~10% price hikes, which could offer more positive surprises and prolong the positive EPS revisions trend. We have raised our 2022–2023e adj. EBIT by 5–3%, and reiterate our BUY and SEK77 target...

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Fortnox - Strong margins and exciting 2022 outlook

24% organic sales growth y-o-y and 16% adj. EBIT beat ’22e-‘23e adj. EBIT up by 5-2% BUY: strong growth outlook and good pricing power

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Fortnox - Operational leverage is back

Sales -1% and 0% vs. ABGSC & cons., respectively Adj. EBIT SEK 97m (ABGSC SEK 84m, cons. SEK 80m) Share to trade up slightly today on positive est. revisions

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Fortnox - Price hikes to yield a strong 2022

Q1 report on Thursday, 28 April ’22e-‘23e sales +2-4%, driven by price hikes Keep BUY, TP up to SEK 70 (65), ~28% upside

Joachim Gunell
  • Joachim Gunell

Fortnox (Buy, TP: SEK77.00) - Bullish thesis gains momentum

Fortnox’s recently implemented ~10% price increases support our view that it has a large, untapped monetisation opportunity to grow ARPC beyond its 2025 targets, allowing for 30%+ revenue CAGR over the coming years. We expect it to gradually increase EBIT growth from 25%+ YOY to 50%+ by Q4 2022e, which supports its valuation multiples, in our view. We have increased our 2022–2023e EBIT by 2–7%, and reiterate our BUY with a raised SEK77 (74) target price.

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Fortnox - New price hikes to drive positive est. revisions

Price increases of ~10%... …driving at least 4% upgrade on cons. ’23e sales Share should trade up more than 5% today

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