The Q1 results demonstrated the inherent scalability of Fortnox’s business model, as accelerating organic revenue growth of 24% YOY translated into 45% EBIT drop-through to set up a 22% adj. EBIT beat to Bloomberg consensus. We expect EPS growth to accelerate to ~50% YOY in H2, with a tailwind from recent ~10% price hikes, which could offer more positive surprises and prolong the positive EPS revisions trend. We have raised our 2022–2023e adj. EBIT by 5–3%, and reiterate our BUY and SEK77 target...
Fortnox’s recently implemented ~10% price increases support our view that it has a large, untapped monetisation opportunity to grow ARPC beyond its 2025 targets, allowing for 30%+ revenue CAGR over the coming years. We expect it to gradually increase EBIT growth from 25%+ YOY to 50%+ by Q4 2022e, which supports its valuation multiples, in our view. We have increased our 2022–2023e EBIT by 2–7%, and reiterate our BUY with a raised SEK77 (74) target price.
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