reports
- Quirijn Mulder
Fugro/Another strong year ahead/BUY
Despite 45% performance in the last two months, we continue to view Fugro as attractive. Likely slower than last year's 28% but the company keeps growing revenue, supporting profitability on the back of strong execution, and continued high added value of its services. For FY24-26 we are optimistic that the company will deliver double digit growth. In our view €3-3.5bn revenues with an 11-15% EBIT margin range by FY27 does not seem too challenging. The tailwinds of relevant markets, such as offsh...
- ING Helpdesk
Fugro N.V.: 1 director
A director at Fugro N.V. maiden bought 6,160 shares at 22.540EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 64/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...
- Marc Zwartsenburg
- CEFA
ING Benelux Favourites/Weekly performance and valuation update
In this publication we update the performance of our ING Benelux Favourites list as well as all valuation and ranking tables for our coverage universe. Performance on the front page is dated from the 26 April 2023, while historical performance is included on the second page. The methodology for our favourites selection is based on a bottom-up approach with a focus on absolute performance with clear near-term triggers. It is a rolling list, ie, stocks can enter/exit whenever we think opportune.
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
AB InBev: A Bit Light, Bud. Ackermans & van Haaren: Core units AM/Banks and DEME. Adecco: Beats by 17% on 4Q23 EBITA; outlook solid. Air France-KLM: Peak reached already? Allfunds Group PLC: MoreFunds. ASR: 2H23 squeezed between two CMDs, no surprises. Belgian telecoms: Digi to launch convergent offers in Belgium. CM.com: FY23 results, EBITDA positive in 2H23. Fugro: Strong? Excellent!. NN Group: FY23 better, modest 2025 targets, capital distribution strategy better. Recticel...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Ageas: FY23 - DPS +8%, S2 ratio 217%, strong Asia even with FX headwinds. ASM International: 4Q23 results, weak start to 2024. Deceuninck: Turkey continues to surprise positively. DEME Group: Handsome set of FY23 results. Fugro: Double digit growth expected. Just Eat Takeaway.com: FY23 results, supportive EBITDA guidance. Kendrion: Balance sheet risk reduced UCB: Material beat to consensus in 2H23, 2024 outlook in line with consensus
- ING Helpdesk
- Marc Zwartsenburg
- CEFA
ING Benelux Favourites/Weekly performance and valuation update
In this publication we update the performance of our ING Benelux Favourites list as well as all valuation and ranking tables for our coverage universe. Performance on the front page is dated from the 26 April 2023, while historical performance is included on the second page. The methodology for our favourites selection is based on a bottom-up approach with a focus on absolute performance with clear near-term triggers. It is a rolling list, ie, stocks can enter/exit whenever we think opportune.
- David Vagman
- CFA
- Jason Kalamboussis
- Marc Hesselink
- CFA
- Marc Zwartsenburg
- CEFA
- Maxime Stranart
- Quirijn Mulder
- Stijn Demeester
- Thymen Rundberg
- Tijs Hollestelle
ING Benelux Favourites: ASM International, ASR, DEME Group, D'Ieteren,...
We refresh our ING Benelux Favourites list, adding Fugro and OCI and removing Azelis and Vopak. We still apply a fundamental bottom up approach in which we select stocks that provide the best (relative) upside within our Benelux coverage universe and these stocks need clear catalysts. Besides this, we screen the ING Benelux coverage in terms of earnings momentum, multiple contraction/expansion, and relative valuation vs historical averages in order to spot which companies have positive earnings ...
- Quirijn Mulder
Fugro/Tailwinds ahead/BUY
Fugro's outlook was strengthened by its 3Q23 results. More important was the CMD in November at which plans to FY27 were laid out. Fresh financial targets seem realistic when taking into account the tailwinds of relevant markets, such as offshore wind. The steps management takes to improve its operational performance are important as well. Clearly a growth story, in our view, but not valued as such. At a 2023-25F EV/EBITDA of 4.6x, Fugro has a low valuation that is more representative of an ordi...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Ageas: Debt issue by YE23 boosts China Solvency. Eurocommercial Properties: Unsurprising Woluwe Shopping Center expansion issues. Fugro: Two more geotechnical vessels acquired. IBA: Nice new Proteus One contract in Poland. NN Group: Longevity deals (+8%) vs Mortgage spreads (-8%). Philips: Another recall hurts sentiment. Recticel: Breaking into PIR Insulated Panels with the acquisition of REX. Van Lanschot Kempen: Accuro acquisition, bolt-ons in Belgium to accelerate
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
AEGON: 3Q23 Preview (trading update). Agfa-Gevaert: FY23 guidance looks difficult to attain. Belgian telecoms: Niel buys 6% stake in Proximus via Carraun. Fugro: Focus on performance, convincing steps. Melexis: CMD highlights, supportive event. Melexis: Change in shareholder structure. SBM Offshore: Prosperity start up. UCB: Bimzelx now commercially available in the US
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Barco: Preview of analyst meeting, support needed. Deceuninck: To stop manufacturing activities in Germany. Fugro: Ambitious and possible. Greenyard: 1H23/24 in line with expectations, guidance reiterated. Melexis: CMD presentation published, healthy growth. TKH Group: Lowers FY23 outlook. Universal Music Group: Warner Music adopts Deezer ‘artist centric' model in France
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Arcadis: Good results, Places reasonably solid. Belysse: A decent quarter, outlook revised down slightly. BESI: 2H23 in line, strong 2024 prospects. CM.com: 3Q23 trading update, continued gross profit growth. Corbion: Death by a thousand cuts. Flow Traders: Strong revenue capture overpowers lower volumes. Fugro: Strong 3Q and resumption of dividend. Kinepolis: Very strong 3Q23, net debt down €28m, EBITDAL YTD in excess of 2019. Unilever: New management, new strategy. Xior Stude...
- David Vagman
- CFA
- Francesca Ferragina
- Marc Hesselink
- CFA
- Marc Zwartsenburg
- CEFA
- Maxime Stranart
- Quirijn Mulder
- Reg Watson
- CFA
- Stijn Demeester
- Thymen Rundberg
- Tijs Hollestelle
ING Benelux Conference London/Highlights of company meetings
Last week, on 5-7 September 2023, we hosted the annual ING Benelux Conference at our ING office, 8-10 Moorgate, London. This report provides an overview of the key topics discussed with each of the Benelux listed companies that attended the conference. The participants are listed below together with the board members representing each company.
APAML APERAM SA
BFIT BASIC-FIT NV
SBMO SBM OFFSHORE NV
FUR FUGRO NV CERT OF SHS
FAGR FAGRON SA
BAR BARCO NV
LOTB LOTUS BAKERIES NV
REC RECTICEL SA
ARCAD ARCADIS NV
AED AEDIFICA SA
AALB AALBERTS N.V.
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
OCI OCI NV
MELE MELEXIS NV
TWEKA TKH GROUP N.V. CERT
AZE AZELIS GROUP NV
DEME DEME GROUP NV
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Highlights ING Benelux Conference London 2023 - Aalberts, Aedifica, AMG, Aperam, Arcadis, Azelis, Barco, Basic-Fit, Brunel International, CM.com, DEME Group, Euronext, Fagron, Fugro, Kinepolis, Lotus Bakeries, Melexis, OCI, PostNL, Recticel, SBM Offshore, TKH Group, Vopak Gimv: Flemish government to sell its 27.8% stake Staffing Sector: French data weaker in July, August Outlook negative Results Calendar
APAML APERAM SA
BFIT BASIC-FIT NV
SBMO SBM OFFSHORE NV
FUR FUGRO NV CERT OF SHS
FAGR FAGRON SA
BAR BARCO NV
RAND RANDSTAD NV
LOTB LOTUS BAKERIES NV
REC RECTICEL SA
GIMB GIMV NV
ARCAD ARCADIS NV
AALB AALBERTS N.V.
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
OCI OCI NV
MELE MELEXIS NV
TWEKA TKH GROUP N.V. CERT
AZE AZELIS GROUP NV
DEME DEME GROUP NV
- Quirijn Mulder
Fugro/Excellent execution in 2Q23/BUY
FY23's second quarter saw a strong margin development. Land was a little bit weak due to incidents, but Marine was an excellent performer. We believe Fugro's growth will continue in the years ahead, supported by better pricing and more ships available to execute the work. Currently valued at an EV/EBITDA of 5.4x for FY23-25F, we believe the share price is undervalued. Unchanged, we aim at an average FY23-25F EV/EBITDA of 6.0x. This combined with a DCF approach leads to an unchanged target price ...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
AMG: 2Q23 satisfactory, FY2023 guidance cut by c.10%. Aperam: 2Q23 in-line on lowered bar, outlook remains subdued. Arcadis: Solid quarter, negative cash flow as expected. ArcelorMittal: Limited 2Q23 EBITDA, sequential weakening reflected in FY. BE Semiconductor Industries: 2Q23 results – towards the bottom of the cycle. Colruyt: Closing of the divestment of Parkwind to JERA. Fugro: Another strong quarter. Shell plc: A bit light but that is not an issue. UCB: Strong 1H23 results,...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Air France-KLM: No excitement in 2Q numbers expected. ASML: Preview 2Q23. Barco: Preview 1H23. Fugro: Consensus out, modest leverage expected. Heijmans: Preview; weak home sales compensated. TomTom: Preview 2Q23. Staffing sector: Hays - 4Q22/23 trading update; weaker trends but in line with consensus as well as the outlook. Results Calendar
- Quirijn Mulder
Fugro/Profitability above growth/BUY
The first quarter of FY23 saw an encouraging improvement of margins and we believe more positive news is to come such as further passing on higher costs, focus on better execution of projects and more non-oil and gas-related activities. Undemanding multiples at 4.5x FY23-25F show that the market is still focussed on risk while not thinking about Fugro's continued growth. We aim at an average FY23-25F EV/EBITDA of 6.0x. This combined with a DCF approach leads to a TP of €18.50 (previously €15.8) ...
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