reports
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping And Ports: Strong freight rates further raise container...
The latest economic indicators for global trade remain mixed with some negative tilt. With the unabated Red Sea attacks, ocean freight futures prices rose further in the past weeks, reflecting the market’s expectations that upbeat freight rates may extend into 1H25. In line with the updated futures price curve, we raise earnings forecasts for our container shipping coverage by over 40% in FY24 and over 100% in FY25 (from a low base). We upgrade OOIL to BUY on its better dividend prospect (FY24 y...
- Greater China Research Team
Greater China Strategy Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls
The HSI and the MSCI China fell 9.2% and 10.5% mom respectively in Jan 24, dragged down by IT and consumer discretionary stocks amid low market confidence and negative geopolitical news flow. The policy easing in late-Jan 24 may have established a bottom, but the timing of a new upcycle remains uncertain, contingent on favourable macro news flow in the near term. Hence, we remain hedged, adding COSCO Shipping Holdings and FII to our BUY list, with additional SELL calls on Li Auto and Xpeng.
00992 LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
601919 COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS A
4DS 4DS MEMORY
COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS H
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
TCOM US TRIP.COM TCOM US
1199 COSCO SHIPPING PORTS LIMITED
601138 FOXCONN INDUSTRIAL INTERNET CO. LTD. CLASS A
LI LI AUTO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
XPEV XPENG INC. ADR SPONSORED CLASS A
9868 XPENG INC
2015 LI AUTO INC
9999 HK PINDUODUO PDD US
9961 NETEASE INC
4DX TRIP.COM GROUP LTD
4D MEDICAL LTD
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping and Ports: Economic indicators still point to a slow ne...
Economic indicators for global trade demand were still largely weak in the most recent month, but we maintain our expectations for a moderate reacceleration of global trade by mid-24 driven by potential restocking needs in the US. The ongoing Red Sea crisis has driven a significant surge in spot ocean freight rates in recent weeks, which should bolster shipping players’ near-term earnings. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top picks: CSP for ports and CSH for container shipping.
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping and Ports: Near-term outlook still subdued; trade volu...
Recent economic indicators still point to a slow near-term trade outlook, but global trade could see a moderate reacceleration in 2024, as the US inventory destocking may come to an end, giving rise to restocking needs by mid-24. This could support Chinese ports’ throughput growth. For container shipping, overcapacity remains an overhang on freight rates in 2024, subduing container shipping players’ earnings outlook. We prefer ports (OVERWEIGHT) to container shipping (MARKET WEIGHT). Top pick: C...
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK): 3Q23: Results below expectations; o...
CSH’s 9M23 net profit of Rmb22.1b (-77% yoy) was in line with its preliminary guidance but behind our projection at 74% of our full-year forecast (we expect a weak 4Q due to lower freight rates qoq). The container shipping sector’s outlook remains cautious in the near to medium term, but we believe the negatives are priced in and CSH’s valuation should be supported by its large net cash position of about Rmb100b (over 80% of CSH’s market cap). Maintain BUY. Target: HK$9.30.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Greater China Research Team
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Ken Lee
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Terence Chiu
- Tham Mun Hon
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Wednesday, November 1, 2023
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI September’s improvement was a flash in the pan. Sector Property Top 100 developers’ Oct 23 sales weaker than expected; government housing supply to accelerate. Results Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK/BUY/HK$19.52/Target: HK$28.20) 3Q23: In line; margins compressed by lacklustre demand and high coal prices. Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$14.88/Target: HK$22.50) 3Q23: Slight miss; expect a better 4Q23. Chongqing Brewery (600132 CH/BUY/Rmb78.50/Target: Rmb100.50) 3Q23: ...
600132 CHONGQING BREWERY CO.LTD CLASS A
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
601919 COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS A
0914 ANHUI CONCH CEMENT COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2747 ESTUN AUTOMATION
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
2359 WUXI APPTEC CO LTD
9988 ALIBABA (9988 HK)
603259 WUXI APPTEC CO. LTD. CLASS A
1876:HK BUDWEISER BREWING CO APAC LTD
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Damon Shen
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Jo Yee Ng
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Malaysia Research Team
- Paula Ruth
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Singapore Research Team
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Notes - Wednesday, November 01, 2023
GREATER CHINA Sector Property: Top 100 developers’ Oct 23 sales weaker than expected; government housing supply to accelerate. Results Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK/BUY/HK$19.52/Target: HK$28.20): 3Q23: In line; margins compressed by lacklustre demand and high coal prices. Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$14.88/Target: HK$22.50): 3Q23: Slight miss; expect a better 4Q23. COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK/BUY/HK$7.95/Target: HK$9.30): 3Q23: Results below expectations; outlook still cautious but valuatio...
FCT FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
ISAT INDOSAT
600585 ANHUI CONCH CEMENT COMPANY LIMITED CLASS A
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
601919 COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS A
BSDE PT BUMI SERPONG DAMAI TBK
BURSA BURSA MALAYSIA BHD
2747 ESTUN AUTOMATION
01876 BUDWEISER BREWING CO. APAC LTD.
2359 WUXI APPTEC CO LTD
TWC TIONG WOON CORPORATION HOLDING
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping and Ports: Outlook still largely cautious despite some ...
Most recent economic indicators still indicate a cautious near-term outlook for global trade despite some signs of stabilisation. For container shipping, freight rates have retraced after a short-lived rebound between July and mid-August, implying earnings pressure for container shipping plays in 2H23. For ports, overall container volume of Chinese ports has been largely stable with low-to-mid single-digit growth ytd. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT given the sector’s cheap valuation. Top picks: CSP and ...
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK): 1H23: Results in line; dividend pay...
CSH’s 1H23 net profit of Rmb16.6b (-74.5% yoy) was in line with our expectations at 52% of our full-year forecast. It declared an interim dividend of Rmb0.51 based on a 50% payout ratio which tops the guided range of 30-50%. Although container shipping sector’s outlook remains uncertain in the near- to medium-term, CSH is cheap and currently trading at merely 0.60x 2023F P/B (2.5SD below sector historical mean), offering an outsized yield of 12.5% for 2023. Maintain BUY. Target: HK$9.71.
- Ariel Poh Yun Li
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Damon Shen
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Ken Lee
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Terence Chiu
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Thursday, August 31, 2023
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Insurance Outstanding 1H23 results from PICC P&C, Ping An and Prudential. Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$6.27/Target: HK$8.80) 1H23: Above expectations; wind power utilisation hours grew 8.4% yoy. China Merchants Port (144 HK/BUY/HK$9.46/Target: HK$13.33) 1H23: Results broadly in line; attractive valuation amid cautious outlook. Maintain BUY. CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$33.25/Target: HK$47.48) 1H23: Results beat expectations; leading market position further str...
00144 CHINA MERCHANTS PORT HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
601899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
7777 3-D MATRIX
601919 COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS A
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
2899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS H
3933 THE UNITED LABORATORIES INTE
2877 CHINA SHINEWAY PHARMACEUTICA
916 CHINA LONGYUAN POWER GROUP-H
333 MIDEA GROUP
300760 SHENZHEN MINDRAY BIO-MEDICAL ELECTRONICS CO. LTD. CLASS A
6862 HAIDILAO INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
1209 CHINA RESOURCES MIXC LIFESTYLE SERVICES
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping and Ports: Global trade outlook is likely to stay subdu...
Leading economic indicators for global trade remain weak but we reckon that the weaknesses have been more than priced in by the cheap valuation of our port and container shipping coverage. Maersk recently raised its full-year financial outlook on the back of a better-than-expected 1H23 performance, despite still expecting a subdued 2H23 market outlook. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: CSH (1919 HK/BUY/Target: HK$9.71) and CSP (1199 HK/BUY/Target: HK6.65).
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping and Ports: Weak global trade outlook more than priced i...
Recent economic indicators point to a subdued 2H23 global trade outlook. However, we think the global trade weakness is more than priced in by the cheap valuation of our port and container shipping coverage. CSH’s preliminary results guidance significantly beat our expectations, implying that container shipping players’ earnings may stabilise at levels better than our previous projections. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: CSH (1919 HK/BUY/Target: HK$9.71) and CSP (1199 HK/BUY/Target: HK6.65).
- Greater China Research Team
- Tham Mun Hon
2H23 Market Strategy: Time for a booster?
MSCI China now trades at an undemanding 12-month forward PE of 10.2x, or a 37.0% discount to Emerging Asia. This steep discount is unwarranted and we expect valuation to normalise in 2H23, backed by additional policy support. However, a significant re-rating is only possible if credit growth accelerates; hence, our index target is at 74 points for now, implying 12.0x target PE. We prefer exposure to automobiles, consumer, industrial automation and online gaming. Steep discount unwarranted. We...
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
XGH ENN ENERGY HOLDINGS LIMITED
00823 LINK REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
PRU PRUDENTIAL PLC
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
002594 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS A
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
300015 AIER EYE HOSPITAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
ORI1 ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL) LIMITED
600872 JONJEE HI-TECH INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL HOLDING CO. LTD. CLASS A
601919 COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS A
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
02669 CHINA OVERSEAS PROPERTY HOLDINGS LIMITED
0914 ANHUI CONCH CEMENT COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2318 PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
753 AIR CHINA LTD-H
670 CHINA EASTERN AIRLINES CO-H
1928-HK SANDS CHINA
916 CHINA LONGYUAN POWER GROUP-H
300760 SHENZHEN MINDRAY BIO-MEDICAL ELECTRONICS CO. LTD. CLASS A
1055 CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES CO-H
2747 ESTUN AUTOMATION
700 HK TENCENT 700 HK
TCOM US TRIP.COM TCOM US
9988 ALIBABA (9988 HK)
1199 COSCO SHIPPING PORTS LIMITED
9922 JIUMAOJIU INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD
1585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
2696 SHANGHAI HENLIUS BIOTECH INC
1024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER HOLDINGS CO LTD
3692 HANSOH PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
9961 TRIP.COM GROUP LTD
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK): 1Q23: Results beat on good cost con...
CSH’s 1Q23 net profit of Rmb7.1b (-74% yoy) came in above our expectations, forming 57% of our full-year forecast. The beat was mainly due to operating cost declining faster than expected. Sea freight spot rates seemed to have stabilised in recent weeks but downward pressures are likely to stay as the sector faces overcapacity issues in the near to medium term. CSH’s large cash pile would offer stability in the downcycle. Maintain BUY with a slightly higher target price of HK$10.66.
- Ariel Poh Yun Li
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Ken Lee
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Sabrina Soh
- Sunny Chen
- Terence Chiu
- Tham Mun Hon
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Tuesday, May 2, 2023
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI Points to weak employment outlook. Sector Aviation Airlines: 1Q23 narrowing losses broadly in line with expectations. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Results Baoshan Iron & Steel (600019 CH/BUY/Rmb6.44/Target: Rmb7.10) 2022/1Q23: In line; speeding up M&A. China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$5.25/Target: HK$6.06) 1Q23: Results in line; NIM to stabilise in next few quarters. China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$37.65/Target: HK$58.00) 1Q23: Results in line; cautiously op...
600660 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
600036 CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS A
601919 COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS A
601939 CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK CORPORATION CLASS A
X2S SINOPHARM GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
600019 BAOSHAN IRON & STEEL CO. LTD. CLASS A
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
300760 SHENZHEN MINDRAY BIO-MEDICAL ELECTRONICS CO. LTD. CLASS A
2747 ESTUN AUTOMATION
2460 GANFENG LITHIUM
338 WEICHAI POWER
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
002340 GEM CO LTD
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
- Ariel Poh Yun Li
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Chong Lee Len
- Jacquelyn Yow Hui Li
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Ken Lee
- Leow Huey Chuen
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Sunny Chen
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Notes - Monday, May 2, 2023
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation: Airlines: 1Q23 narrowing losses broadly in line with expectations. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Results Baoshan Iron & Steel (600019 CH/BUY/Rmb6.44/Target: Rmb7.10): 2022/1Q23: In line; speeding up M&A. COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK/BUY/HK$9.08/Target: HK$10.66): 1Q23: Results beat on good cost control; maintain BUY. Estun Automation (002747 CH/BUY/Rmb22.80/Target: Rmb29.70): 4Q22/1Q23: Results in line, poised for another year of solid growth. Fuyao Glass Industry Grou...
INCO VALE INDONESIA
PTTEP PTT EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION PLC
601919 COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS A
X2S SINOPHARM GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
600019 BAOSHAN IRON & STEEL CO. LTD. CLASS A
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
CDREIT CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
300760 SHENZHEN MINDRAY BIO-MEDICAL ELECTRONICS CO. LTD. CLASS A
2747 ESTUN AUTOMATION
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
CICT CAPITALAND INTEGRATED COMMERCIAL TRUST
TAPG TRIPUTRA AGRO PERSADA PT
CDB CELCOMDIGI BHD
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK): 2022: Results beat on good cost con...
CSH’s 2022 net profit of Rmb$109.7b beat our estimate by 6.4% on better-than-expected cost control. The decently-sized final dividend of Rmb1.39 would unlock value for shareholders. While CSH is set to see a sharp profit decline in 2023 on the back of lower freight rates, its valuation appears attractive to us and we see potential for value unlocking through more dividend and/or strategic M&As. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$10.47 (adjusted to HK$8.88 after its shares go ex-dividend).
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Damon Shen
- Jessie Guo Yuting
- Jieqi Liu
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Kate Luang
- Kelvin Chau Siu Pong
- Ken Lee
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Sunny Chen
- Terence Chiu
- Tham Mun Hon
- Zhifeng Shen
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Monday, April 3, 2023
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI Points to further recovery, but employment still soft. Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$8.97/Target: HK$11.50) 2022: Below expectations; recognition of RMB2,045m in impairment provision. China Merchants Port (144 HK/BUY/HK$12.04/Target: HK$13.48) 2022: Core earnings a slight beat; expecting earnings decline in 2023. Maintain BUY. China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK/BUY/HK$18.96/Target: HK$27.14) 2022: Results below expectations; targeting 20% sale...
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
00144 CHINA MERCHANTS PORT HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
LGX1 CHINA RESOURCES GAS GROUP LIMITED
01177 SINO BIOPHARMACEUTICAL LIMITED
000338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS A
601919 COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS A
601633 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS A
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
853 MICROPORT SCIENTIFIC CORP
COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS H
2202 XINJIANG GOLDWIND SCIENCE&TECHNOLOGY
916 CHINA LONGYUAN POWER GROUP-H
6862 HAIDILAO INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD
189 DONGYUE GROUP LTD
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping And Ports: Global trade is likely to see a muted 1Q23, ...
Recent economic indicators and our channel checks point to a muted 1Q23. However, looking beyond that, global trade is likely to regain strength from 2Q23 onwards, driven by China’s economic activity recovery post its reopening and a potential pick-up in retail consumption of Western countries. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the shipping and port sector - we prefer ports (OVERWEIGHT) over container shipping (MARKET WEIGHT). CSP (1199 HK/BUY/Target: HK$7.79) is our top pick.
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping & Port: We initiate coverage on China’s shipping and po...
Despite a slowdown in volume growth amid near-term economic headwinds, we expect the port segment’s profitability to be stable due to recent rate hikes and note that China’s integration within RCEP is a medium-term positive. For the container shipping segment, we expect sea freight rates to remain subdued in the medium term and forecast two years of sharp profit declines for the segment in 2023-24. We initiate coverage on the China shipping and port sector with MARKET WEIGHT. We prefer the port ...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.