GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Calls: Add Alibaba, Innovent, Shuanghuan, Trip.com to our BUY list. Take profit on JBM Healthcare and CR Land. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Apr 25: Remove ICBP, EXCL and MIKA; add BBTN and GOTO. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Capitalising On Sentiment Turnaround: Our Apr 25 Alpha Picks underperformed. May 25 picks: Duopharma, Gamuda, IJM, IOI Properties, TIME dotCom, MYEG, Nationgate, Northeast Group and RHB Bank. SINGAPO...
In 1Q25, core net profit grew 0.8% yoy, driven by: a) a 1.1% increase in revenue, b) lower net finance cost and R&D expenses, c) a 24.7% yoy growth in investment income, and d) higher credit impairment reversal. Gross margin decreased 0.2ppt yoy to 7.8%. OCF was -Rmb95.9b, improving from -Rmb96.6b in 1Q24. Debt-to-asset ratio decreased 0.1ppt qoq to 75.5%. For 2025, CSCEC targets high quality developments with better OCF and lower debt ratio. Trim earnings forecast. Maintain BUY. Target price: R...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Online Travel Agencies We saw continuous vitality in cultural and tourism consumption based on 1Q25 travel data and Labour Day travel data projections. Key travellers’ preference trends during Labour Day 2025 will be long-haul travel, inbound tourism and county-level travel. With favourable policy support such as the implementation of "instant tax refunds" for outbound travel, we expect to see promising revenue and earnings growth from OTA companies in 1H25. Maintain OVER...
GREATER CHINA Sector Online Travel Agencies: Travel data preview: Expecting a vibrant 2025 Labour Day Results BYD Electronic (285 HK/BUY/HK$31.80/Target: HK$41.20): 1Q25: Margins below expectations; automotive business to lead the charge in 2025. Maintain BUY. China Resources Building Materials Technology (1313 HK/BUY/HK$1.69/Target: HK$2.30): 1Q25: In line; severe drought in Guangxi restricts cement products outflow. China State Construction Engineering Corporation (601668 CH/BUY/Rmb5.49 /Targe...
In 2024, although net profit fell 14.9% yoy and is 6.9% below our estimate, the stable gross margin, higher dividend payout ratio and significant cash flow improvement in 4Q24 are major highlights, reflecting CSCEC’s competitiveness in a challenging environment. The company targets stable DPS in 2025. Potential fiscal stimulus to stable domestic demand will support CSCEC’s IC order growth and cash collection. Trim 2025/26 forecasts by 5.3%/8.4%. Maintain BUY. Target price: Rmb6.61.
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity: 1Q25 growth tops estimates as stimuli gain traction. Strategy Small-Mid Cap Monthly: Sidestepping Trump’s tariffs: Prefer domestic names. Top pick: JBM Healthcare. Sector Automobile: Weekly: PEV sales surge continues, BYD leads as competition escalates. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV. Results China State Construction Engineering Corporation (601668 CH/BUY/Rmb5.48 /Target: Rmb6.61): 2024 earnings below expectation...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls: Add CR Beer, Desay, JBM Healthcare, JD Logistics, Minth, WuXi App Tech and Xiaomi Corp to our BUY list. Take profit on AIA, Hansoh Pharma, JD and Zijin Mining. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperform In Mar 25: Remove BBNI, BBRI, ASII, JSMR and KLBF; add BBCA, ICBP, ERAA and BUKA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Pockets of Opportunities: Our Mar 25 Alpha Picks outperform. Apr 25 picks: Alpha IVF, Duopharma, IJM, IOI Properties, TIME...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: March Conviction Calls: Add Geely, JD, SHKP and Zijin Mining to our BUY list. Take profit on CATL, Desay, JD Logistics, Mengniu, Plover Bay and Tencent. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In Feb 25: Our picks are BBNI, BBRI, MIKA, EXCL, KLBF, JSMR and ASII. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Unprecedented Combo Of Disappointments: Our Feb 25 Alpha Picks sorely underperformed. Mar 25 picks: 99SpeedMart, Alpha IVF, KPJ Healthcare, MrDIY, MYEG, RHB Ba...
The HSI and MSCI China index rose 0.8% mom and 0.9% mom respectively in January as investors awaited clarity on Sino-US relations and any additional Chinese stimulus. Looking ahead, we will focus on oversold names, policy beneficiaries and stocks that will also be quick to book profits due to greater market volatility. We are adding AIA, CR land, Haier and Han’s Laser to our BUY list. We take profits on Crystal, Geely, Trip.com and Weimob, and cut losses on Sinopharm.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls: Add AIA, CR Land, Haier and Han’s Laser to our BUY list. Take profit on Crystal, Geely, Trip.com and Weimob. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Slight Underperformance In Jan 25: Our picks are ISAT, KLBF, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, JSMR, BBNI and ASII. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Spotlight On The Upcoming Results Winners: Our Alpha Picks outperformed in Jan 25. Feb 25 picks: Gamuda, GENM, Kossan, MrDIY, MYEG, Pekat, RGB, RHB Bank, VSI...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls: Add CATL, JD Logistics, Miniso and Plover Bay to our BUY list, and Weimob to our SELL list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Our Selections Outperform In 2024: Our picks are ISAT, KLBF, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, JSMR, BBNI, CMRY and ASII. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Still Ample Domestic Catalysts: Our Alpha Picks outperformed in Dec 24. Jan 25 picks: Gamuda, GENM, MrDIY, MYEG, Pekat, RGB, RHB Bank, SP Setia, VSI and Yinson. SINGAP...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Add CATL, JD Logistics, Miniso and Plover Bay to our BUY list, and Weimob to our SELL list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Our Selections Outperform In 2024 Our picks are ISAT, KLBF, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, JSMR, BBNI, CMRY and ASII. MALAYSIA Update VS Industry (VSI MK/BUY/RM1.16/Target: RM1.50) Despite a 17% recovery in its share price since its low in m...
Expect increased market volatility in 1H25 as the US embarks on another round of trade rebalancing with China via higher tariffs. We expect China to roll out growth supportive policies on top of the de-risking measures that have been announced. Hence, we prefer a domestic orientation and policy beneficiaries for 1H25. Our MSCI China Index target is at 68pt, based on 7% EPS growth and 10.5x PE. The downside target is 51pt in the event of a full-fledged trade war. China is focusing on de-riskin...
The HSI and MSCI China both fell 4.4% mom in November, as investors took profit on the lack of new catalysts from the NPCSC meeting. Looking ahead, Sino-US tensions are expected to increase and Trump’s preference for hiking tariffs will be disruptive. We prefer domestic exposure and policy beneficiaries. We are adding Desay, Meituan, Mengniu, Tencent and Trip.com to our BUY list. We take profit on CATL and BYDE.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Add Desay, Meituan, Mengniu, Tencent, and Trip.com to our BUY list. Take profit from CATL. Update CR Mixc Lifestyle (1209 HK/BUY/HK$29.20/Target: HK$32.15) Takeaways from reverse roadshow in Shenzhen. China Resources Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$23.25/Target:HK$32.40) Takeaways from reverse roadshow in Shenzhen. Small/Mid Cap Highlights Regina Miracle (2199 HK/Not Rated/HK$2....
We conducted a channel check for CSCEC. For 2025, we expect infrastructure orders to grow by 15-20% yoy. In the real estate sector, with support from macroeconomic policies, we anticipate single-digit growth in housing construction orders, while property sales are expected to decline yoy to 5%. Trim earnings forecasts for 2024/25/26 by 3.7%/4.5%/6.6% to factor in slower economic recovery. Maintain BUY. Lower target price by 2.7% to Rmb6.61.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Healthcare Geopolitical tensions and weak economic conditions may cloud 2025’s growth outlook of the CRDMO, medical devices and services segments. However, the biopharma segment will see continued recovery, supported by a lower cost of capital and constant innovative product launches in China and even overseas. Leading internet healthcare players, with stabilising business models, also expect robust revenue growth and improving profitability. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Up...
GREATER CHINA Sector Healthcare: Striving for growth in 2025. Update Anta Sports (2020 HK/BUY/HK$78.25/Target: HK$120.60): Issuance of new CB for refinancing and additional share buybacks; qtd operations meet expectations. China State Construction Engineering Corporation (601668 CH/BUY/Rmb5.96/Target: Rmb6.61): Trim earnings forecast on slower macro recovery; stay positive on 2025 outlook. Small/Mid Cap Highlights Best Pacific International Holdings (2111 HK/NOT RATED/HK$2.89): Takeaways from Vi...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls: Add Hansoh Pharma, Sands China, CSCEC and BYDE to our BUY list. Add Sinopharm to our SELL list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance in Oct 24: Our picks are NCKL, BBTN, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, JSMR, BBNI, CMRY and ASII. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Gearing Up For The Reporting Season: Our Alpha Picks outperformed in Oct 24. Nov 24 picks: EcoWorld, Gamuda, Lagenda, MYEG, Pekat, RGB, RHB Bank, Top Glove, VSI and Yinson...
The HSI and MSCI China dropped 3.9% and 5.9% mom respectively in October, as investors took profit pending further details on the expected fiscal package. We expect the fiscal stimulus to have been largely priced in and will take profit on most outperformers. Our focus will be on stocks with specific catalysts in the near term. We are adding Hansoh Pharma, Sands China, CSCEC and BYDE to our BUY list. We add Sinopharm to our SELL list.
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