The phasing out of local car trade-in subsidies has hammered auto sales. PEV sales fell 17% yoy during the first week of December. Subsidies will resume in early-26 and trigger a sales rebound. We expect PV sales and EV sales to grow 4.9% and over 20.0% in 2026 respectively, driven by exports. Geely is catching up with BYD in terms of market share (12.1% vs 13.8%). Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Geely. Top SELL: Li Auto.
We expect China’s vehicle wholesale shipment to grow 4.9% to 35.7m units in 2026, with EV shipments surging 22.9% and exports rising 20.8%. The anti-involution policy and subsidy rollback will curb overall sales growth but improve OEM margins by banning price wars, while auto parts suppliers will regain bargaining power. Key 2026 investment themes include ADAS, humanoid robotics, eVTOL and recovery of lithium carbonate prices. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Ge...
Auto Guangzhou 2025 highlighted intelligent electrification, all-scenario NOA, smart cockpits, EREVs, and futuristic concepts like flying cars and humanoid robots. Stock winners: Geely, XPeng, GWM; supply chain beneficiaries: CATL, Fuyao, Tuopu, Desay SV, Minth, BYD and Li Auto are expected to face margin pressures in 2026. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely, XPeng and Minth. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto.
China’s PV retail sales basically remained flat yoy in Oct 25, while PEV retail sales grew 7% yoy. PV retail sales fell 19% yoy and 4% mom in 1-9 Nov 25, mainly due to the high base. China has launched a three-month crackdown on exaggerated auto ads to curb false claims, restore market order, and strengthen consumer trust. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto.
The anti-involution policy boosted OEMs’ 3Q25 earnings by ending the price war. However, the industry disruptor BYD saw worsened liquidity due to sales slowdown and inventory pile-up. Auto part companies saw margin erosion in 3Q25 due to delayed impacts from the OEMs’ price war, but 4Q25 margin will stabilise. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Cut target price for Li Auto to HK$60.0. Raise target price for Weichai to HK$24.50.
Ganfeng Lithium’s 3Q25 results beat our expectation, with net profit making a turnaround to Rmb557m (+364.0% yoy). This brings 9M25 net profit to Rmb26m. We change our 2025 net loss forecast of Rmb149m to a net profit of Rmb407m. We also raise our 2026-27 earnings forecasts by 42%/21% to Rmb1,925m/Rmb3,309m respectively, based on higher sales volume and gross margin. Upgrade from HOLD to BUY and increase the target price from HK$40.00 to HK$78.00 for Hshare. Our rating and target price for A-sha...
China’s PV insurance registrations grew 16.9% yoy but fell 30.4% wow in the 27th week of 2025 due to the roll-back of promotional discounts, in line with expectations. On 9 July, BYD announced L4 smart parking and promised to take responsibility for any losses incurred; Geely unveiled the ground-breaking SEA-S platform and its new flagship hybrid SUV, Zeekr 9X. Chongqing recently announced a new EV subsidies policy. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu.
China’s PV insurance registrations grew 6.9% yoy/4.0% wow in the 26th week of 2025, in line with expectations, while BYD’s sales fell 5% wow during the week. The rollback of discounts and the high inventory level constitute earnings headwinds. We cut BYD’s target price from HK$163.30 to HK$142.00. Geely raised its 2025 sales target to 3m units on upbeat sales. We raise target price for Geely from HK$31.00 to HK$35.00. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu.
China’s PV insurance registrations grew 26% yoy, 40% mom and 22% wow in the 25th week of 2025, with a PEV market share of 51.6%. BYD’s sales surge on discounts is unsustainable, and long-term growth will rely on product innovations and overseas expansion. China’s vehicle exports jumped 21% yoy in May, with EVs up 43% and PHEVs soaring 134%. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Desay SV and Tuopu.
China’s PV insurance registrations grew 24% yoy, 18% mom and 27% wow in the 24th week of 2025, with a PEV market share of 55.1%. BYD’s sales rebounded 25% wow during the week on price cuts, easing inventory pressure. Geely launched the AI-powered Xingrui Cloud Power 2.0 and Galaxy A7 EM-i, featuring ultra-low fuel use and smart energy management. Robotaxi commercialisation is accelerating vehicle intelligentisation. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Desay SV and Tuopu.
China’s PV insurance registrations rose 0.5% yoy, 26.5% mom and 5% wow in the 19th week of 2025, with PEV market share increasing to 50.2%. Geely’s Zeekr, Lynk & Co, and Galaxy saw strong sales growth driven by new model launches, aggressive pricing, tech upgrades, and robust export expansion. We lift Geely’s 2025 net profit forecast by 24%, given its upbeat 1Q25 earnings. Maintain BUY and raise target price to HK$31.00 Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV.
GFL’s 1Q25 net loss narrowed 19% yoy/75% qoq to Rmb356m on margin expansion despite an ASP decline. Looking ahead, GFL’s bottom line will be driven by sales volume growth, stabilisation of lithium carbonate prices, optimisation of sales mix and battery recycling. We raise our 2025-27 net profit forecasts to Rmb388m/Rmb1,288m/ Rmb2,233m respectively. Upgrade from HOLD to BUY. Raise target price to HK$30.00. We believe the worst is over and fully priced in.
This week, we have takeaways from the 2025 Shanghai Auto Show. OEMs like BYD and Geely showcased promising new models, eg Ocean-S, Galaxy Warship. BYD’s 1Q25 net profit doubled yoy, in line with expectations. GWM’s 1Q25 earnings missed estimates on margins. We downgrade GWM from BUY to SELL. EVE Energy’s 1Q25 results beat estimates on shipments and margins. We upgrade EVE Energy from SELL to BUY. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV.
China’s PV insurance registrations rose 13% yoy and 4% wow in the 15th week of 2025, with PEV market share climbing to 53.0% as EV sales surged and ICE-cars demand softened. Galaxy and Zeekr underperformed amid rising competition from BYD’s DiPilot models and broader EV price cuts. Management will adjust pricing and launch five new models at two-month intervals, with major upgrades in July-August. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV.
US tariffs on Chinese autos (up to 150%) have limited direct impact but raise global trade tensions, posing risks to demand and earnings. China’s auto sales grew 25% yoy but fell 30% wow in the 14th week of 2025, mainly due to Qingming Festival. PEV market share remained at 50.1%. BYD and Geely respectively guide for 86-119% yoy and 205-233% yoy spike in 1Q25 earnings, beating expectations. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV.
China auto sales declined wow in the 10th week of 2025, with a 55.7% share of the PEV market. BYD successfully raised HK$43.4b (US$5.6b) in an H-share placement. ASEAN investors are becoming increasingly positive on China’s auto sector, with BYD and Geely leading in AI/ADAS and overseas expansion, while risks like margins, US tariffs, and chip restrictions remain manageable. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao, CATL and Desay SV.
China auto sales rebounded in the ninth week of 2025, with a 53.8% PEV market share. BYD plans to issue 118m H-shares to raise around US$5.6b, aiming at funding the construction of overseas plants. Geely’s AI Technology Launch event introduced the "Qianli Haohan" intelligent driving system featuring a five-tier framework. With regard to US tariffs on Mexico and China, direct impacts on Chinese automakers are limited. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao, CATL and Desay SV.
China’s auto sales picked up in the eighth week of 2025, but consumers’ wait-and-see sentiment continues amid the transitional period of product upgrades. Geely will hold an AI Intelligence Strategy Conference on 3 Mar 25, which may boost its stock price. Given the stronger-than-expected market response, we upgrade Li Auto and XPeng from HOLD to BUY and raise target prices to HK$156.00 and HK$110.00 respectively. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao, CATL and Desay SV.
China auto sales rebounded in the seventh week of 2025, but remained low compared with the previous month due to consumers’ wait-and-see sentiment amid a price war and the transitional period of product upgrade. Zeekr’s acquisition of Lynk & Co strengthens Geely’s premium EV strategy. GWM has unveiled a strategy for affordable smart driving solutions. DeepSeek is gaining traction among automakers. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao, CATL and Desay SV.
Insurance registrations for major EV makers in China remained low due to continued disruptions from the Chinese New Year holiday. BYD announced plans to equip all its EVs with DiPilot ADAS, making smart driving technology available even in budget models. Geely remains a strong competitor to BYD with its AI strategy about to be launched. Upgrade BYD from HOLD to BUY and raise target price to Rmb410.00. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao, CATL and Desay SV.
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