Storm models approved by NFSA

Release NOK 1.3bn of capital requirements, and its NOK 900m Tier 2 issue.up the proforma solvency ratio to ~185% as of 30 Sept 2024 (from 164%). Could up consensus dividend expectations for both 2024e-25e, positive.

Nordic non-life insurance – Q3 reporting wrap

Tryg (Buy, TP: DKK185.00) - Building on a solid foundation

We expect focus at the CMD set for 4 December to be on how best to utilise the scale achieved after the RSA transaction. Building on newfound scale in Sweden, together with profitability measures in Norway, we see continued underwriting improvements. In sum, we expect Tryg to update its key financial targets for 2027, with a combined ratio of ≤80% and an insurance service result of DKK8.2bn–8.6bn. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK185 (180), having increased our 2025–20...

More front-end loaded margin expansion

Actual y-o-y underlying improvements to show in Q4; Lower CR staring point with same contraction; On an improving trend: BUY reiterated

Gjensidige Forsikring (Hold, TP: NOK206.00) - Repricing remains in foc...

Repricing of customer premiums remains in focus as Gjensidige attempts to mitigate the effects of lingering inflation and increased claims frequencies. Q3 PTP was up 97% YOY on investments and benign weather conditions, but the underlying claims ratio deteriorated by 1.3%-points. Although growth momentum continues to support long-term improvements, with Q3 insurance revenue growth at 10.6% YOY in local currency, we have reduced our 2025–2026e EPS by 1–2%. We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) and cut...

Q3: Underlying claims continue to improve

PTP +13% vs IR cons, +12% vs ABGSCe, on financials...; ...as large claims weight on rep CR 83.9%, underl 1.3pp better; Cons. est. up 0-2% for 25e-26; stock just up 0-2%

Heads-up for Q3-report 22 October

Like clockwork, now time to look to 2027

Q3: Underlying claims in line, 3% UW beat (weather & large losses); Adj. EPS +1% for both 24e (inv.return) and 26e (premiums); Unwarranted P/E discount 24e-25e, BUY into CMD

Reported UW beat, underlying in line

PTP +3% vs both cons & ABG, driven by 3% better UW; Reported growth inline, '24 guidance repeated ahead of CMD; Stock +0-2% today, cons.est.rev. +0-2%; pos. read to peer GJF

Nordic non-life: Q3e – set to improve again

Continuing on the path towards a CR <80%

Q3: expect continued 30bp improvement, neutral risk/reward. UW -1-2% on lower discounting; '24e adj. EPS +2% (financials). Trading at 5-12% warranted cap. adj. P/E premium to peers: BUY.

Largest improvement to come next quarter

Expect 11% y-o-y growth for both premiums and claims. High underlying claims growth expected for entire '24e. Preferred Norwegian non-life player, runner-up in the Nordics.

Consolidating forces

A benign quarter without major weather events should lead to strong YOY improvement in earnings across the Nordic non-life sector, helped by favourable financial markets and the ongoing momentum from multiple rounds of premium price rises. Industry consolidation continued with the acquisition of Topdanmark by Sampo, set to be completed by 18 October. The transaction should lead to increased consolidation, promoting rational market behaviour in Denmark. Based on a growing discount to peers, we hi...

Norway: Best ideas Q3'24

A look into the Norwegian claims inflation

Motor frequency taking a breather: Property claims inflation to be determined by frequency: Gross premiums up 9.5% y-o-y vs. claims 8.9%

Insurance trip: 14 insurers in three days

High price increases in non-life = margin expansion; Attractive dividend levels to come from life units; BUY stability from Sampo/Tryg; earnings growth STB/GJF

Storebrand ASA - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliance...

Summary Marketline's Storebrand ASA Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments report includes business description, detailed reports on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), divestments, capital raisings, venture capital investments, ownership and partnership transactions undertaken by Storebrand ASA - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances since January2007. Marketline's Company Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments repor...

Sale of its Baltic operation to ERGO

Sell its Baltics operations for 2x book; To receive EUR 80 million, but to book a loss of NOK 120m; Transaction accretive for 25e-26e ROE; Stock up 1.5% is fair

BUY the 2025-26 margin improvements

We do not yet see premiums repricing reflected in earnings. Adj. EPS -10%, -1.3% and +1.1% for '24e/ '25e/ '26e. On an improving trend: BUY reiterated.

Gjensidige Forsikring (Buy, TP: NOK199.00) - Need for further repricin...

Q2 PTP was 37% higher YOY, as strong results from investments and pensions helped offset a soft underwriting result. The underlying claims ratio deteriorated 3.8%-points YOY adjusted for periodisation of Q1 claims, and Gjensidige has implemented further price increases to reach a run-rate of 15–17% YOY for Norwegian private property and motor in 2024. Despite the strong pricing momentum, we have reduced our 2025–2026e EPS by 3–6% and cut our target price to NOK199 (202), but reiterate our BUY.