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ABGSC Financials Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Fredrik Flørnes Støle
  • Jan Erik Gjerland

Nordic non-life: Q2e - Repricing to show effects

A more normal claims quarter should start to show the repricing. Expanding margins up avg. adj EPS '25e-'26e by ~1%. Prefer Sampo to Tryg and GJF (all BUYs); TOP (SELL)

ABGSC Financials Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Fredrik Flørnes Støle
  • Jan Erik Gjerland

FX could soon become a tailwind

Q2: huge turnaround in UW (both q-o-q and y-o-y). Raise premiums for all years (FX): fine-tune estimates -1% to +3%. Still trading at an undeserved 12-16% discount on capital-adj. P/E

ABGSC Financials Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Fredrik Flørnes Støle
  • Jan Erik Gjerland

BUY into 2025e-26e margin expansion

Repricing effects boost profitability, FX lower premiums. We up UW results further for all years, while financials mute '24e. Preferred Norwegian non-life player, runner-up in the Nordics.

Håkon Astrup
  • Håkon Astrup

Seeing the effects of repricing

Warm weather in the quarter, albeit with periods of heavy rainfall, should support seasonally low claims, while we expect to see the results of the strong premium repricing since H2 2023. Stable interest rates in most markets and solid equity performance QOQ should further support Q2 earnings. Sampo is our Nordic non-life top pick, following its long-awaited bid for the remaining shares in Topdanmark.

 PRESS RELEASE

Tryg analyst day

Tryg analyst day   Tryg is hosting an analyst day today at Tryg's headquarters in Ballerup. The event is dedicated to the sell-side analysts that cover the share. No new financial or strategic targets will be revealed - presentations from different business units will be shown. The presentation can be found on Tryg.com or attached here.   Attachment

ABGSC Financials Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Fredrik Flørnes Støle
  • Jan Erik Gjerland

CEO repeats its strong repricing message

Repeat its profitable growth, price and cost discipline. Weather effects of 7.2pp in Q1'24 give hope of improved 2H. No estimate changes, ~10% upside to TP of NOK 195, BUY.

MarketLine Department
  • MarketLine Department

Storebrand ASA - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliance...

Summary Marketline's Storebrand ASA Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments report includes business description, detailed reports on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), divestments, capital raisings, venture capital investments, ownership and partnership transactions undertaken by Storebrand ASA - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances since January2007. Marketline's Company Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments rep...

 PRESS RELEASE

Tryg A/S – total number of voting rights and capital

Tryg A/S – total number of voting rights and capital With reference to section 32 of the Danish Capital Markets Act (Kapitalmarkedsloven), Tryghereby publishes the company's total number of voting rights and the total share capital. After the capital decrease registered on 29 April 2024 the company's share capital was reduced by nominal DKK 92,214,355 to nominal DKK 3,081,960,545. Tryg's nominal share capital amounts to DKK 3,081,960,545 equivalent to 616.392.109 shares and 308,196,054,500 voting rights as of 30 April 2024. Attachment

 PRESS RELEASE

Tryg A/S – capital reduction

Tryg A/S – capital reduction   At Tryg’s annual general meeting on 21 March 2024, it was decided to cancel repurchased shares from the Group’s share buy back programmes. The Group’s share capital is reduced by nominal DKK 92,214,355 to nominal DKK 3,081,960,545. The reduction of the share capital was announced by the Danish Business Authority on 22 March 2024. Tryg has not received any objections to the capital reduction. Therefore, the reduction is effective as the Danish Business Authority has registered the capital reduction. After the cancellation of the 18,442,871 repurchased share...

ABGSC Financials Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Jan Erik Gjerland

Striving to improve margins - up to BUY

Weather weight as expected, but a more bullish margin story evolving. We increase our estimates by 5-10% from improved UW. Up to BUY (Hold) with TP NOK 195 (171); 10% upside.

Håkon Astrup
  • Håkon Astrup

Gjensidige Forsikring (Buy, TP: NOK197.00) - Turning point in sight

Harsh weather during Q1 led to elevated claims and a combined ratio deterioration of 5.7%-points YOY despite insurance revenues growing 11% YOY. Adjusting for weather and other items, the claims ratio improved 0.2%-points YOY, a sign that the sharp repricing efforts during 2023 are starting to take effect. Combined with signs of abating claims frequencies and further repricing, we expect continued underwriting improvements. We reiterate our BUY, having raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 3% and our tar...

ABGSC Financials Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Jan Erik Gjerland

Weather weighs on underwriting; life beat (corrected)

Adj. PTP -7% vs IR cons, -3% vs ABGSCe, as reported CR 92.6%. High premium growth of 11%, in line with us and cons. Cons. est. -1% to -3% amid UW, life mute; stock -1% to -4%

 PRESS RELEASE

Tryg shares are traded ex-dividend

Tryg shares are traded ex-dividend Today, 18 April 2024, Tryg shares are traded ex-dividend of DKK 1.95. Attachment

Håkon Astrup
  • Håkon Astrup

Tryg (Buy, TP: DKK185.00) - Continued underlying improvement

Q1 PTP was down 15% YOY to DKK1,007m (as we and consensus expected), reflecting the harsh winter weather and a high-profile claim in Sweden. However, the underlying claims ratio extended its long run of improvements, ending 0.5%-points stronger YOY. Given the ongoing premium repricing and CMD in December, we expect focus to remain on maintaining underwriting discipline, supporting continued improvements. We have made limited changes to our 2025–2026e net profit, and reiterate our BUY and DKK185 ...

 PRESS RELEASE

Reporting of trading in Tryg shares by senior management and their rel...

Reporting of trading in Tryg shares by senior management and their related parties  CEO Johan Kirstein Brammer has transferred 4,365 Tryg shares at DKK 138.8 for a total amount of DKK 605,862 on 17 April 2024.                                                            Attachment

 PRESS RELEASE

Reporting of granting of Tryg shares to Allan Kragh Thaysen (CFO) and ...

Reporting of granting of Tryg shares to Allan Kragh Thaysen (CFO) and Alexandra Bastkær Winther (CCO)   Group CFO Allan Kragh Thaysen has been granted 5,002 Tryg shares for a total amount of DKK 687,775. Group CCO Alexandra Bastkær Winther has been granted 4,473 Tryg shares for a total amount of DKK 615,037. Granting of the shares are related to the bonus programme in 2020. Attachment

 PRESS RELEASE

Tryg A/S – 1. kvartals rapport 2024

Tryg A/S – 1. kvartals rapport 2024   Trygs bestyrelse har i dag godkendt 1. kvartals rapport for 2024 Tryg rapporterede et insurance service result på 1.275 mio. DKK (1.474 mio. DKK) og en combined ratio på 86,6 (84,0) i 1. kvartal 2024 påvirket negativt af højere end normalt vejr- og storskader niveau for mere end 180 mio. DKK. Den underliggende erstatningsprocent for Tryg Koncernen blev forbedret med 0,5 procentpoint, hvorimod Privat havde en forværring i den underliggende erstatningsprocent på 0,5 procentpoint påvirket af en stigning i frekvensen for motor skader. Tryg rapporterede en...

 PRESS RELEASE

Tryg A/S – Interim report Q1 2024

Tryg A/S – Interim report Q1 2024   Tryg’s Supervisory Board has today approved the Q1 2024 interim report. Tryg reported an insurance service result of DKK 1,275m (DKK 1,474m) and a combined ratio of 86.6 (84.0) in Q1 2024, adversely impacted by more than DKK 180m higher than normal weather and large claims level. The underlying claims ratio for the Group improved by 50bps, whilst the Private segment displayed a deterioration of 50bps driven by an increase in motor claims frequency. Tryg reported a top-line growth of 4.8% primarily driven by price increases to offset inflationary pressu...

 PRESS RELEASE

Consensus estimates on Tryg A/S

Consensus estimates on Tryg A/S Tryg has compiled consensus estimates ahead of the Q1 2024 report. Consensus is based on input from 14 financial analysts. Consensus is also available on . Attachment

Håkon Astrup
  • Håkon Astrup

Repricing the tonic for bad weather

We expect above-normal weather-related claims in Q1 as a result of heavy rain and snowfall (and record-low temperatures) in the Nordics at the start of the year. On the positive side, we believe the non-life insurers should see the effects of 2023’s repricing efforts, while their latest CMD presentations leave us confident the sector remains committed to maintaining underwriting discipline. Tryg is our top pick in the Nordic P&C sector, while we also reiterate our BUYs on Sampo and Gjensidige an...

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