Solid growth momentum into 2025e

Helped by benign weather with few storms, we expect solid underwriting across the Nordic P&C sector for Q1, with underlying performance further supported by earned repricing momentum and abating claims inflation. The sector is trading at an attractive average 2026e P/E of c15.2x and we see solid capital distribution prospects. We reiterate our recommendations on all our covered sector names and highlight Tryg as our top pick.

Non-life: Competition authority consider to look at the competition

The DCCA is out with report describing inefficient comp. Could be a drag for Tryg and ALMB despite the industry objections. ALMB drop looks attractive, but it could drag on for two more years.

Gjensidige Forskring ASA: 1 director

A director at Gjensidige Forskring ASA bought 5,000 shares at 233.640NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 60/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ye...

Realised claims synergies ahead of plan

Realised ~2.1pp (NOK 812m), 2 years ahead of time, 75% in NO. ~50% operational, ~40% fraud & procurement & ~10% RedGo. More synergies will be taken out; consensus could improve '27e CR.

Acquire a 20% COI market stake at 7-9x P/E

Acquire Buysure that has 5-years agreements with real estate agents. A 12.5x P/E payment, but with GJF as risk carrier, more 7-9x. The NOK 430m is 4pp of its solvency; neutral to LT-positive

Norway: Best ideas Q1'25

Nordic non-life insurance – Q4 reporting wrap

UW improvements to last

Beat driven by UW as financials miss

Adj PTP +1%/+9% (ABG/cons) driven by UW as financials miss; DPS just soft, SBB likely to be announced in connection with AGM; Cons 25e-26e (+0-2%) underl. UW; stock follow up 1-2%

Heads-up for Q4-report, 6 February

Expect further improvements in UW

Gjensidige Forsikring (Hold, TP: NOK230.00) - Long-awaited turnaround

Q4 PTP was NOK1,605m, 2% higher YOY, but with a significant underwriting improvement following 11.6% insurance revenue growth and a 6.5%-points stronger underlying claims ratio YOY. Following price hikes of ~19% for Motor Norway from January, we expect the underwriting performance to drive growth momentum in 2025, closing in on the 2026 combined ratio target of

Massive improvement y-o-y; stock up

Adj. PTP +23% vs IR cons (UW & financials), -1% vs ABGSCe (financials); Expect repricing to continue to filter trough and increase profitability; Cons. est. up 3-6% for 25e-26; stock to follow 3-6%

Market hit it hard for financials

Tryg (Buy, TP: DKK185.00) - Continued repricing momentum

Underwriting continued to improve, helped by recent repricing efforts to mitigate inflation, although a soft investment result led to earnings pressure in Q4. With Private segment premium growth of 6.8% YOY in local currencies, supported by continued momentum from Norwegian motor price hikes, we see Tryg as on track to meet its 2027 combined ratio target of ~81%. We have made limited EPS revisions for 2025–2026e, and reiterate our BUY and DKK185 target price.

Miss Q4 due to financials, reiterate 2027 guidance

PTP -8-10% from softer financials anb just soft UW and premiums;Reiterate 2027 guidance, 2025 premium growth from private/SMEs; Stock -1-2% today, cons.est.rev. minor; softer read-x into GJF

Heads-up for Q4-report 24 January

Repricing set to support profitability

The outlook for strong growth momentum in the Nordic P&C sector remains, with the recent rounds of premium repricing yet to take full effect. Furthermore, underwriting profitability is still a key focus, illustrated by Tryg raising its long-term combined ratio target to ~81% at the 2024 CMD. We believe signs of slowing claims inflation, albeit from high levels, together with mostly normal weather, bode well for Q4 underwriting. We have three BUYs and one HOLD, and highlight Sampo as our top sect...

Nordic non-life Q4 preview: positive R/R in GJF

At an unwarranted discount

Q4e: Sampo CR of 85% and adj. PTP of EUR 380m; Adj. EPS '24e -1% (Hastings) and '25e +3% (financials); A great franchise at an unwarranted discount: BUY