Nordic non-life: Q2e - Repricing to show effects

A more normal claims quarter should start to show the repricing. Expanding margins up avg. adj EPS '25e-'26e by ~1%. Prefer Sampo to Tryg and GJF (all BUYs); TOP (SELL)

Fully valued

Q2e: easier comps vs. last few quarters, but Oona headwind remains. Adj. EPS trimmed by 6% and 3% for '24e-'25e (claims). Valuation premium has jumped with the Sampo offer: SELL

FX could soon become a tailwind

Q2: huge turnaround in UW (both q-o-q and y-o-y). Raise premiums for all years (FX): fine-tune estimates -1% to +3%. Still trading at an undeserved 12-16% discount on capital-adj. P/E

BUY into 2025e-26e margin expansion

Repricing effects boost profitability, FX lower premiums. We up UW results further for all years, while financials mute '24e. Preferred Norwegian non-life player, runner-up in the Nordics.

Approaching the end of its transformation

Q2e: offer for Top, share buyback, premium growth & fire headwind. Adj. EPS '24e -1% (financials & associates), '26e -1% (Hastings). We continue to argue for a premium valuation for Sampo: BUY

Seeing the effects of repricing

Warm weather in the quarter, albeit with periods of heavy rainfall, should support seasonally low claims, while we expect to see the results of the strong premium repricing since H2 2023. Stable interest rates in most markets and solid equity performance QOQ should further support Q2 earnings. Sampo is our Nordic non-life top pick, following its long-awaited bid for the remaining shares in Topdanmark.

Sampo Plc: Acquisition of Topdanmark's remaining shares is credit posi...

The transaction will strengthen Sampo's market position in the Nordics, unlock growth opportunities and enhance efficiencies.

Sampo with an all-share transaction for Topdanmark

CEO repeats its strong repricing message

Repeat its profitable growth, price and cost discipline. Weather effects of 7.2pp in Q1'24 give hope of improved 2H. No estimate changes, ~10% upside to TP of NOK 195, BUY.

A solid underwriter at an unwarranted discount

Underl. CR of 87%, in line with ABGSCe, rep. 3pp worse (weather). Adj EPS'24e-25e unchanged, '26e +3% on better underlying UW. Cap. adj. P/E'25e 12.3x (10% discount to peers) and yield of 25.9%.

Underlying CR inline, beat driven by financials

If P&C's underlying CR in line with ABG, much better financials. Reported CR (If P&C) weaker at 86.7% hit by tough Nordic weather. Cons.24e (+0-2% amid financials), 25e-26e intact; stock end up +1%.

Heads-up for Q1-report, 7 May

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Striving to improve margins - up to BUY

Weather weight as expected, but a more bullish margin story evolving. We increase our estimates by 5-10% from improved UW. Up to BUY (Hold) with TP NOK 195 (171); 10% upside.

Gjensidige Forsikring (Buy, TP: NOK197.00) - Turning point in sight

Harsh weather during Q1 led to elevated claims and a combined ratio deterioration of 5.7%-points YOY despite insurance revenues growing 11% YOY. Adjusting for weather and other items, the claims ratio improved 0.2%-points YOY, a sign that the sharp repricing efforts during 2023 are starting to take effect. Combined with signs of abating claims frequencies and further repricing, we expect continued underwriting improvements. We reiterate our BUY, having raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 3% and our tar...

Weather weighs on underwriting; life beat (corrected)

Adj. PTP -7% vs IR cons, -3% vs ABGSCe, as reported CR 92.6%. High premium growth of 11%, in line with us and cons. Cons. est. -1% to -3% amid UW, life mute; stock -1% to -4%