Storm models approved by NFSA

Release NOK 1.3bn of capital requirements, and its NOK 900m Tier 2 issue.up the proforma solvency ratio to ~185% as of 30 Sept 2024 (from 164%). Could up consensus dividend expectations for both 2024e-25e, positive.

Nordic non-life insurance – Q3 reporting wrap

Strong UW results muted by softer financials

Stronger UW muted by financials; Adj. EPS down 3% for '24e, unchanged '25e-'26e; Cap. adj. P/E in '26e at 11.7x (5% below peers) and yield of ~21.3%

Underlying UW better, one-offs mute

Adj PTP beat 1% (cons/ABG) incl non-rec EUR 15m (Top); underl. UW are stronger; Group reported CR 83.8% vs ABG 83.7% and cons 82.7%; Cons 25e-26e (+1-2%) underl. UW; stock follow up 1-2%

Heads-up for Q3-report 6 November

Tryg (Buy, TP: DKK185.00) - Building on a solid foundation

We expect focus at the CMD set for 4 December to be on how best to utilise the scale achieved after the RSA transaction. Building on newfound scale in Sweden, together with profitability measures in Norway, we see continued underwriting improvements. In sum, we expect Tryg to update its key financial targets for 2027, with a combined ratio of ≤80% and an insurance service result of DKK8.2bn–8.6bn. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK185 (180), having increased our 2025–20...

More front-end loaded margin expansion

Actual y-o-y underlying improvements to show in Q4; Lower CR staring point with same contraction; On an improving trend: BUY reiterated

Gjensidige Forsikring (Hold, TP: NOK206.00) - Repricing remains in foc...

Repricing of customer premiums remains in focus as Gjensidige attempts to mitigate the effects of lingering inflation and increased claims frequencies. Q3 PTP was up 97% YOY on investments and benign weather conditions, but the underlying claims ratio deteriorated by 1.3%-points. Although growth momentum continues to support long-term improvements, with Q3 insurance revenue growth at 10.6% YOY in local currency, we have reduced our 2025–2026e EPS by 1–2%. We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) and cut...

Q3: Underlying claims continue to improve

PTP +13% vs IR cons, +12% vs ABGSCe, on financials...; ...as large claims weight on rep CR 83.9%, underl 1.3pp better; Cons. est. up 0-2% for 25e-26; stock just up 0-2%

Heads-up for Q3-report 22 October

Like clockwork, now time to look to 2027

Q3: Underlying claims in line, 3% UW beat (weather & large losses); Adj. EPS +1% for both 24e (inv.return) and 26e (premiums); Unwarranted P/E discount 24e-25e, BUY into CMD

Reported UW beat, underlying in line

PTP +3% vs both cons & ABG, driven by 3% better UW; Reported growth inline, '24 guidance repeated ahead of CMD; Stock +0-2% today, cons.est.rev. +0-2%; pos. read to peer GJF

Nordic non-life: Q3e – set to improve again

Continuing on the path towards a CR <80%

Q3: expect continued 30bp improvement, neutral risk/reward. UW -1-2% on lower discounting; '24e adj. EPS +2% (financials). Trading at 5-12% warranted cap. adj. P/E premium to peers: BUY.

Margins to widen with Top synergies

Q3e: group CR of 83.7% and group adj PTP of EUR 464m. Adj. EPS '24e +2% and '25e-'26e -4% (mainly int. rate-driven). We argue that its UW skills deserve a premium valuation: BUY.

Largest improvement to come next quarter

Expect 11% y-o-y growth for both premiums and claims. High underlying claims growth expected for entire '24e. Preferred Norwegian non-life player, runner-up in the Nordics.

Topdanmark (No_rec, TP: DKK) - Discontinuing coverage

Given Sampo’s pending acquisition of Topdanmark and its subsequent delisting, we have discontinued coverage. Our last published recommendation, target price, and estimates should no longer be relied upon.

Consolidating forces

A benign quarter without major weather events should lead to strong YOY improvement in earnings across the Nordic non-life sector, helped by favourable financial markets and the ongoing momentum from multiple rounds of premium price rises. Industry consolidation continued with the acquisition of Topdanmark by Sampo, set to be completed by 18 October. The transaction should lead to increased consolidation, promoting rational market behaviour in Denmark. Based on a growing discount to peers, we hi...

Norway: Best ideas Q3'24

Transformation complete: >20% upside