Value support with attractive yield

Expect further improvements in UW

Gjensidige Forsikring (Hold, TP: NOK230.00) - Long-awaited turnaround

Q4 PTP was NOK1,605m, 2% higher YOY, but with a significant underwriting improvement following 11.6% insurance revenue growth and a 6.5%-points stronger underlying claims ratio YOY. Following price hikes of ~19% for Motor Norway from January, we expect the underwriting performance to drive growth momentum in 2025, closing in on the 2026 combined ratio target of

Massive improvement y-o-y; stock up

Adj. PTP +23% vs IR cons (UW & financials), -1% vs ABGSCe (financials); Expect repricing to continue to filter trough and increase profitability; Cons. est. up 3-6% for 25e-26; stock to follow 3-6%

Market hit it hard for financials

Tryg (Buy, TP: DKK185.00) - Continued repricing momentum

Underwriting continued to improve, helped by recent repricing efforts to mitigate inflation, although a soft investment result led to earnings pressure in Q4. With Private segment premium growth of 6.8% YOY in local currencies, supported by continued momentum from Norwegian motor price hikes, we see Tryg as on track to meet its 2027 combined ratio target of ~81%. We have made limited EPS revisions for 2025–2026e, and reiterate our BUY and DKK185 target price.

Miss Q4 due to financials, reiterate 2027 guidance

PTP -8-10% from softer financials anb just soft UW and premiums;Reiterate 2027 guidance, 2025 premium growth from private/SMEs; Stock -1-2% today, cons.est.rev. minor; softer read-x into GJF

Stepping up profit sharing and distribution

Heads-up for Q4-report 24 January

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK140.00) - Minor model adjustment

We have updated our estimates to reflect the closing of the AIP transaction, which increased Storebrand’s ownership in the Danish infrastructure fund from 10% to 60%. Closing in mid-November, the transaction should affect the latter half of Q4. In sum, we see this as mostly neutral, having made only limited estimate revisions to our 2025–2026e EPS. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate our NOK140 target price.

Small Caps, Big Ideas – December 2024

Repricing set to support profitability

The outlook for strong growth momentum in the Nordic P&C sector remains, with the recent rounds of premium repricing yet to take full effect. Furthermore, underwriting profitability is still a key focus, illustrated by Tryg raising its long-term combined ratio target to ~81% at the 2024 CMD. We believe signs of slowing claims inflation, albeit from high levels, together with mostly normal weather, bode well for Q4 underwriting. We have three BUYs and one HOLD, and highlight Sampo as our top sect...

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK140.00) - Seeing the results of repricing

As the repricing efforts to counter inflationary pressure and increased disability trends start to yield results, along with more normal winter weather, we expect a solid Q4 pre-tax profit before amortisation of NOK1,015m, 7% stronger YOY, driven by an improved insurance result. We have made limited EPS revisions for 2025–2026e and reiterate our BUY and NOK140 target price.

Nordic non-life Q4 preview: positive R/R in GJF

Best short-term margin expansion

Good underwriting hit by financials

Norway: Best ideas Q4'24

Tryg (Buy, TP: DKK185.00) - Underwriting excellence in focus

Underwriting and capital efficiency remained in focus at Tryg’s 2024 CMD in London. The company lowered its long-term combined ratio target to ~81% and has launched a DKK2bn share buyback programme, following a series of de-risking activities. Despite the strong outlook for continued shareholder distributions, we have reduced our 2025–2026e EPS by 1–3% on somewhat lower financial result than expected. We reiterate our BUY and DKK185 target price.

CMD - plan towards 2027

2027 underwriting result target of DKK 8-8.4bn; DKK 15-16bn normal divi added by SBB of DKK 2bn for '24-'27; Stock likely up 0-2% today driven by share buyback

Heads-up for CMD 4 December