Swedish forest prices up 3% y-o-y

Leading indicators

Paper cuts

Difficulties continue

Large forest deal at EV/EBITDA 36-60x

Currency slips, wood chips

EBIT miss driven by soft pulp performance

Still challenging, but price hikes help

Still waiting for a relief

Q3 slightly above, Q4 likely flat/slightly better

Stora acquires a Finnish sawmill company

Q3 muted, but Q4 should be better

Q3e: Clean paper EBIT of PLN ~27m. Paper prices up, but demand growth is abating. Fair value range of SEK 40-80.

Challenges continue

Miss on paper - higher costs and soft demand

Paper improves, but pulp costs weigh

Q2e: Clean EBIT of ~PLN 38m. Paper is recovering: better demand, more supply cuts, higher prices. Fair value range of SEK 40-80 per share.

Leading indicators

OECD: The indicator points up from a low level. US: The indicator points up (housing starts, monetary policy, interest rates, real FX). EU: The indicator points up from a low level (bond yields, stock market). Japan: The indicator is neutral (monetary policy, housing starts).

Paper EBITDA in line

Paper EBITDA PLN 109m, in line vs ABGSCe PLN 108m. Group EBITDA miss driven by Rottneros. Paper markets still weak, but demand better

Arctic Paper - FY23 focused on margin management

Arctic Paper’s FY23 results highlight the resilience of its business model in a year of cyclical weakness. Management successfully focused on margins, which were broadly protected through the implementation of cost containment measures and adjusting capacity to match demand. The FY23 EBITDA margin stood at 13%, substantially higher than the historical average of 10%. The cash flow and balance sheet remained strong with net cash of PLN348m, an increase from the FY22 level (PLN276m).

Arctic Paper - Resilient FY23 masked by record comparator

FY23 was a year with numerous obstacles for the European paper and pulp industry, including lower demand due to an economic downturn and customer destocking. Nevertheless, Arctic Paper’s performance was resilient, with an EBITDA margin of 13%, substantially higher than the long-run historical average, although this is somewhat masked by a record comparator year. The strength of the balance sheet was maintained with net cash of PLN348m, which should bolster the company’s capex programme, focused ...

Arctic Paper - 4P strategy set to mitigate sector headwinds

Arctic Paper is a leading European producer of graphical fine paper, bio-based packaging solutions, high-quality wood pulp, and energy, with a growing renewables portfolio. The company is undergoing a comprehensive transformation process, proactively repositioning its model from largely a niche and agile pulp and paper company to a more diversified business by adding Packaging and Power divisions, as part of its four pillar (4P) strategy for 2030.