reports
- Johannes Grunselius
Metsa Board (Buy, TP: EUR5.60) - Market recovery should be here
Reflecting more conservative earnings margins, we have lowered our EBITDA for 2025–2026e by 20–10%. While this is negative, we still have confidence in the investment case. We continue to like Metsa Board’s earnings exposure to pulp, where we believe prices are about to rise which, combined with leverage to increased paper board volumes, should lead to higher earnings in 2025–2026e. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to EUR5.6 (5.8).
- Simen Mortensen
Wide peer valuation range on market recovery expectations
Various waves of expectations for a recovery in newbuild markets have led to volatility in the sector, but an upwards share-price trend overall. Although we still await proof the new-volume market (both residential and commercial) is recovering, consensus is fuelled by falling rates. However, trailing profits under IFRS valuations are record-wide. We maintain a neutral sector view and stock-picking approach.
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- Simen Mortensen
YIT (Sell, TP: EUR2.00) - Set for zero Q4 EPS
We forecast Q4 EPS to be close to zero, in line with Vara consensus; EPS should improve in 2025–2026e but remain low nominally. For the Q4 webcast, we expect the focus to be on capital releases and cost efficiency programmes. We reiterate our SELL and EUR2 target price, finding a better risk/reward elsewhere.
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- Emira Sagaama
- Ghada Ben Sedrine
- Nicolas David
- Oddo Sustainability Team
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ATO ATOS SE
OSE OSE IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS SA
ACN ACCENTURE PLC CLASS A
INF INFOTEL SA
FGA FIGEAC AERO SA
LXS LANXESS AG
SQI SQLI SA
SWP SWORD GROUP SE
AUB AUBAY SA
ATE ALTEN SA
BB SOCIETE BIC SA
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
COR CORTICEIRA AMORIM SGPS SA
VRNL VERNEUIL PARTICIPATIONS
CTAC CTAC N.V.
TIETO TIETOEVRY OYJ
COK CANCOM SE
BC8 BECHTLE AG
ADN1 ADESSO AG
IDR INDRA SISTEMAS S.A. CLASS A
FTG111 FLATEXDEGIRO AG
ECONT ECONOCOM GROUP SE CLASS D
REY REPLY S.P.A.
AEIN ALLGEIER HOLDING AG
WAVE WAVESTONE SA
NA9 NAGARRO
EXN EXCLUSIVE NETWORKS SA
IOS IONOS GROUP SE
TUI TUI AG
SCHOTT PHARMA AG
- Emira Sagaama
- Ghada Ben Sedrine
- Nicolas David
- Oddo Sustainability Team
- Thomas Zlowodzki
SOP SOPRA STERIA GROUP SA
ATO ATOS SE
ROG ROCHE HOLDING LTD
ACN ACCENTURE PLC CLASS A
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
LONN LONZA GROUP AG
INF INFOTEL SA
SQI SQLI SA
SWP SWORD GROUP SE
IAG INTERNATIONAL CONSOLIDATED AIRLINES GROUP SA
AUB AUBAY SA
ATE ALTEN SA
ZAL ZALANDO SE
GRF GRIFOLS S.A. CLASS A
SAN SANOFI
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
TLX TALANX AG
VRNL VERNEUIL PARTICIPATIONS
CTAC CTAC N.V.
TIETO TIETOEVRY OYJ
COK CANCOM SE
BC8 BECHTLE AG
ADN1 ADESSO AG
ITX INDUSTRIA DE DISENO TEXTIL S.A.
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
IDR INDRA SISTEMAS S.A. CLASS A
GRF.P GRIFOLS S.A. PREF CLASS B
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
ECONT ECONOCOM GROUP SE CLASS D
REY REPLY S.P.A.
AEIN ALLGEIER HOLDING AG
WAVE WAVESTONE SA
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
NA9 NAGARRO
EXN EXCLUSIVE NETWORKS SA
GSK GSK PLC
IOS IONOS GROUP SE
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
- Emira Sagaama
- Ghada Ben Sedrine
- Nicolas David
- Oddo Sustainability Team
- Thomas Zlowodzki
SOP SOPRA STERIA GROUP SA
ATO ATOS SE
ROG ROCHE HOLDING LTD
ACN ACCENTURE PLC CLASS A
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
LONN LONZA GROUP AG
INF INFOTEL SA
SQI SQLI SA
SWP SWORD GROUP SE
IAG INTERNATIONAL CONSOLIDATED AIRLINES GROUP SA
AUB AUBAY SA
ATE ALTEN SA
ZAL ZALANDO SE
GRF GRIFOLS S.A. CLASS A
SAN SANOFI
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
TLX TALANX AG
VRNL VERNEUIL PARTICIPATIONS
CTAC CTAC N.V.
TIETO TIETOEVRY OYJ
COK CANCOM SE
BC8 BECHTLE AG
ADN1 ADESSO AG
ITX INDUSTRIA DE DISENO TEXTIL S.A.
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
IDR INDRA SISTEMAS S.A. CLASS A
GRF.P GRIFOLS S.A. PREF CLASS B
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
ECONT ECONOCOM GROUP SE CLASS D
REY REPLY S.P.A.
AEIN ALLGEIER HOLDING AG
WAVE WAVESTONE SA
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
NA9 NAGARRO
EXN EXCLUSIVE NETWORKS SA
GSK GSK PLC
IOS IONOS GROUP SE
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
- Emira Sagaama
- Ghada Ben Sedrine
- Nicolas David
- Oddo Sustainability Team
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ATO ATOS SE
OSE OSE IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS SA
ACN ACCENTURE PLC CLASS A
INF INFOTEL SA
FGA FIGEAC AERO SA
LXS LANXESS AG
SQI SQLI SA
SWP SWORD GROUP SE
AUB AUBAY SA
ATE ALTEN SA
BB SOCIETE BIC SA
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
COR CORTICEIRA AMORIM SGPS SA
VRNL VERNEUIL PARTICIPATIONS
CTAC CTAC N.V.
TIETO TIETOEVRY OYJ
COK CANCOM SE
BC8 BECHTLE AG
ADN1 ADESSO AG
IDR INDRA SISTEMAS S.A. CLASS A
FTG111 FLATEXDEGIRO AG
ECONT ECONOCOM GROUP SE CLASS D
REY REPLY S.P.A.
AEIN ALLGEIER HOLDING AG
WAVE WAVESTONE SA
NA9 NAGARRO
EXN EXCLUSIVE NETWORKS SA
IOS IONOS GROUP SE
TUI TUI AG
SCHOTT PHARMA AG
- Nicolas David
- Nicolas Thorez
ATO ATOS SE
ACN ACCENTURE PLC CLASS A
INF INFOTEL SA
SQI SQLI SA
SWP SWORD GROUP SE
AUB AUBAY SA
ATE ALTEN SA
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
VRNL VERNEUIL PARTICIPATIONS
CTAC CTAC N.V.
TIETO TIETOEVRY OYJ
COK CANCOM SE
BC8 BECHTLE AG
ADN1 ADESSO AG
IDR INDRA SISTEMAS S.A. CLASS A
ECONT ECONOCOM GROUP SE CLASS D
REY REPLY S.P.A.
AEIN ALLGEIER HOLDING AG
WAVE WAVESTONE SA
NA9 NAGARRO
EXN EXCLUSIVE NETWORKS SA
IOS IONOS GROUP SE
- Nicolas David
- Nicolas Thorez
ATO ATOS SE
ACN ACCENTURE PLC CLASS A
INF INFOTEL SA
SQI SQLI SA
SWP SWORD GROUP SE
AUB AUBAY SA
ATE ALTEN SA
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
VRNL VERNEUIL PARTICIPATIONS
CTAC CTAC N.V.
TIETO TIETOEVRY OYJ
COK CANCOM SE
BC8 BECHTLE AG
ADN1 ADESSO AG
IDR INDRA SISTEMAS S.A. CLASS A
ECONT ECONOCOM GROUP SE CLASS D
REY REPLY S.P.A.
AEIN ALLGEIER HOLDING AG
WAVE WAVESTONE SA
NA9 NAGARRO
EXN EXCLUSIVE NETWORKS SA
IOS IONOS GROUP SE
- ABGSC IT Research
- Herman Caspersen
- Øystein Elton Lodgaard
- Simen Mortensen
YIT (Sell, TP: EUR2.00) - New ambitions, but with a condition
At its CMD, the company presented new financial and non-financial targets through 2029. However, these depend on a reversion in the Finnish residential market to an historical average of c16,000 new housing starts annually. Given YIT’s track record of not achieving its financial targets, we have made no forecast changes. We reiterate our SELL and EUR2 target price, finding a better risk/reward elsewhere.
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- Simen Mortensen
YIT (Sell, TP: EUR2.00) - Finnish recovery not started yet
According to YIT, the Baltic and CEE residential markets have recovered – but Finland has still to see any sign of a rebound. Reported Q3 EBIT was broadly in line with our estimate, including a EUR6m one-off. The order backlog was down 18% YOY, another concern for us, but we believe it should improve in Q4. However, we continue to see downside risk to consensus, expecting the recovery to be slower than is reflected in the former and the share price. We reiterate our SELL and EUR2 target price.
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
SCA B SVENSKA CELLULOSA AKTIEBOLAGET CLASS B
STERV STORA ENSO OYJ CLASS R
HUH1V HUHTAMAKI OYJ
RROS ROTTNEROS AB
METSB METSA BOARD OYJ CLASS B
BILL BILLERUDKORSNAS AB
ATC ARCTIC PAPER SA
BRG BORREGAARD
HOLM B HOLMEN AB CLASS B
NPAPER NORDIC PAPER HOLDING
ELO ELOPAK ASA
NSKOG NORSKE SKOG ASA
- Johannes Grunselius
Metsa Board (Buy, TP: EUR5.80) - Worst should be over
Although we were negative surprised by the poor Q4 earnings guidance, we believe Q4 represents the worst business conditions in the business cycle. We have made hefty cuts to our 2024–2025e EBITDA of 30–20%. While this is negative, we still have confidence in the investment case. Assuming improved pulp prices and incremental profits after the completed investments, we see strong earnings growth from Q1e, translating into attractive valuation multiples. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our ...
- Luis de Toledo Heras
ATO ATOS SE
NXI NEXITY SA CLASS A
FLY SOCIETE FONCIERE LYONNAISE SA
MF WENDEL SE
EXE EXEL INDUSTRIES SA
BIO BB BIOTECH AG
MERY MERCIALYS SA
ASY ASSYSTEM SA
WHA WERELDHAVE N.V.
SWP SWORD GROUP SE
CGM CEGEDIM SA
MTU MANITOU BF SA
FII LISI SA
GBT GUERBET SA
ATE ALTEN SA
FR VALEO SE
XIOR XIOR STUDENT HOUSING N.V.
COFB COFINIMMO SA
SAVE SAVENCIA SA
MBWS MARIE BRIZARD WINE & SPIRITS SA
VID VIDRALA SA
TIETO TIETOEVRY OYJ
VIS VISCOFAN S.A.
MONT MONTEA SCA
SIGHT GENSIGHT BIOLOGICS SA
WAF SILTRONIC AG
LIGHT SIGNIFY NV
NVG NAVIGATOR COMPANY SA
A3TV ATRESMEDIA CORPORACION DE MEDIOS DE COMUNICACION SA
LFDE LA FRANCAISE DE L'ENERGIE SA
TEC TECHNIPFMC PLC
XFAB X-FAB SILICON FOUNDRIES SE
SPM SAIPEM S.P.A.
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