reports
- Mihaly Gajda
Challenging Transformation Journey Amid Energy Security and Geopolitic...
Our target price for OMV is EUR 48.1, indicating a 27% upside potential, inclusive of the announced EUR 5.05 dividend. For MOL, we propose a target price of HUF 3,245, suggesting an 18% upside potential, factoring in an estimated dividend of HUF 250. We recommend 'Buy' for OMV and 'Accumulate' for MOL. In our opinion OMV holds a smaller risk. Despite challenges in the petrochemical sector, the company has achieved greater success with its international E&P portfolio, boasts more efficient refini...
- Mihaly Gajda
MOL exceeded market consensus expectations in Q4
MOL demonstrated resilience, achieving an impressive Clean CCS EBITDA of HUF 354 bn, a 19% decrease Y-o-Y yet a 3% increase Q-o-Q. This result surpassed market expectations by 13%. The company's market outperformance was driven by strong operational performance in the Upstream segment, robust refining operations, and a recovering petrochemical market.
MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas: 2 directors
A director at MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas sold after exercising options 41,657 shares at 2,832.000HUF and the significance rating of the trade was 44/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's dir...
- Gellert Gaal
Came better than the consensus, + FY EBITDA guidance increased
MOL beat consensus on every P&L level, starting from Clean CCS EBITDA to profit by 10% and 3% thanks to better downstream and lower negative contribution from intersegment and the positive effect of Waste management – the latter two combined explains ca. 60% of EBITDA beat. Clean CCS EBITDA and profit to equity arrived to HUF 345 bn and HUF 176 bn (or an EPS of 224) respectively. Although, Clean CCS EBITDA would have been closer to consensus excluding the relative positive EBITDA effect of inter...
- Gellert Gaal
Looks a huge beat but it is much less than it seems..+ weak guidance
MOL significantly beat consensus on every P&L level, starting from Clean CCSEBITDA to profit level by 15% and 150% thanks to large intersegment income (+USD 90mthat used to be –USD 10m) which is expected to be reverted in H2. Excluding that, CleanCCS EBITDA still should have arrived slightly higher than consensus by ca 3% as a resultof stronger gas midstream (+52% vs. consensus). Below EBITDA, CCS modification (+USD 50m vs. cons.) gains on net financials (+USD 80m vs. cons) and negative tax expe...
- Gellert Gaal
Strong HUF and low tax rate boosted profit BUT EBITDA missed consensus
MOL significantly beat consensus on profit level by 94% thanks to lower tax rateand better financial expenses (low quality beat), but missed the consensus on CCSEBITDA (-8%) on slowing CEE macro. CCS EBITDA of Downstream and Upstream arrivedlower than anticipated by 16% (- 55m USD) and 12% (-40m USD), while consumer serviceand midstream were better than consensus by 25% (+25m USD) and 53% (+27m USD).o We think it is a low quality beat on profit, and market will focus on the weakermacro fueled lo...
- Gellert Gaal
MOL - Low Quality EBITDA Beat, HUGE Tax Expense Drag Profit Into The R...
Low quality EBITDA beat, HUGE tax expense drag profit into the red MOL beat the consensus on CCS EBITDA (+3%) but due to two extraordinary items (impairments + huge tax expense reflecting expected solidarity tax in Croatia, Slovakia, Hungary) with a total effect of ca. USD 590m drag (equivalent of HUF 300 per share) net profit into the red. So far Q4’s CF was not affected by the huge tax increase, taxes paid was in line with historical norms (ca USD 70m). The beat on CCS EBITDA is rather low ...
Raiffeisen Research Institutional Equity Daily 01.12.2022
AT: Mayr-Melnhof - EGM to be convened EGM on December 22 (neutral) AT: Telekom Austria - Baa1 rating affirmed by Moody's (neutral) CZ: CEZ - CEZ received three bids for new nuclear power plant in Dukovany (neutral) HU: MOL - Closing the purchase of Lotos filling stations (neutral) PL: PKN - Finalizing the acquisition of Lotos (neutral) PL: PKO - Rising risk costs in 2023 (neutral)
Raiffeisen Research Institutional Equity Daily 30.11.2022
MSCI November Index Review - Standard indices (STD) changes: DEL: Orange Polska; SmallCap indices (SC) changes: DEL: FACC, Telekom Austria; AT: Andritz - Andritz to supply equipment to Sappi in Austria (neutral) AT: OMV - Market rumors about Carlyle's interest in OMV's upstream assets (neutral) AT: Vienna Insurance Group - Hartwig Löger confirmed to become CEO (neutral) PL: LPP - CEO states company has prepared for weaker sales in coming months (negative) PL: Santander Bank Polska ...
Rosenbauer confirmed at HOLD, TP EUR 38 - Model update: Cutting FY 22 ...
We maintain the HOLD recommendation but tweak the target price to EUR 38 from EUR 39 We project break-even EBIT (guidance: positive EBIT) and a net loss for FY 22e. We think a dividend omission is well possible Given several guidance revisions in the last two years, a track record needs to be restored. We think there is reason to believe that next year could mark a turning point Apart from a certain relief from retreated material costs and less strained supply chains as well as the non-recurrenc...
- Gellert Gaal
MOL - Huge Beat, 9M Reported EPS Reached HUF 960, EBITDA Guidance Lift...
Huge beat, 9M reported EPS reached HUF 960, EBITDA guidance lifted MOL significantly beat the consensus on profit (+13%) and on CCS EBITDA (+20%) because of better DS (+28% vs. cons) and upstream (+13% vs. cons). Key positives: FY CCS EBITDA and simplified FCF guidance is lifted again to USD 4.3bn (+28%) and to USD 2.4 bn (+54% - similar amount in absolute term) yet it still remains below consensus estimates of USD 3.8bn (our USD 4.0bn) ATH clean cash margin at upstream division (84...
Vienna Insurance Group First Impression - Double-digit premium growth ...
PBT of EUR 136 mn somewhat below our and consensus expectations Strong top-line growth continued with ~18% yoy, driven by P&C and Life segments Claims (+c. 17% yoy) and costs (+c. 23%) inflation offset the impressive premium growth Sound investment income performance We view the quarterly results as neutral in the light of rising claims and costs
Raiffeisen Research Institutional Equity Daily 15.11.2022
AT: Rosenbauer - Operating loss in Q3 amplified by restructuring costs, unchanged FY guidance of sales of ca. EUR 1 bn and positive EBIT requires major earnings uptick in Q4 (neutral) AT: Vienna Insurance Group - Strong earnings driven by underwriting and investment performance (neutral) DE: Encavis - Q3 22 above RBIe and consensus without EUR 30 mn provision for potential government revenue skimming, guidance confirmed (neutral) RO: Conpet - Q3 22 net profit up by 27% yoy, on the back o...
Raiffeisen Research Institutional Equity Daily 09.11.2022
AT: FACC - Negative EBIT and bottom line loss in Q3 22, FY outlook confirmed (negative) AT: S IMMO - Acquiring properties in Budapest from CPI Property Group (neutral) AT: Vienna Insurance Group - Application for listing on the Budapest Stock Exchange submitted (neutral) AT: voestalpine - Q2 results live up to pre-announced indication, NWC remains cash flow burden (neutral) CEE: Banks - KBC reports lower Q3 net profit qoq in CZ, but higher in BG and HU (neutral) CZ: CTP - Q3 trends i...
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
VOE VOESTALPINE AG
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
SPI S IMMO AG
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
VIG VIENNA INSURANCE GROUP AG WIENER VERSICHERUNG GRUPPE
FACC FACC AG
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
SNP PETROM S.A.
NLBR NOVA LJUBLJANSKA BANKA DD LJUBLJANA
ADKO ADDIKO BANK
CAP ENCAVIS AG
CTPNV CTP NV
Raiffeisen Research Institutional Equity Daily 04.11.2022
AT: Andritz - Earnings above expectations, new order backlog record, guidance confirmed (positive) AT: Erste Group - Q3 22 net profit broadly in line with expectations / guidance for 2022 tweaked upwards and encouraging outlook for 2023, confirmed DPS of EUR 1.9 for 2022 (positive) AT: voestalpine - Share repurchase of up to 5.6% of the capital starts on November 10 (positive) AT: voestalpine, AMAG - Collective bargaining for the Austrian metal industry brings average wage increase of 7...
- Gellert Gaal
MOL - Offers Value But No Short Term Trigger
Offers value but no short term trigger We update our forecast to reflect the current commodity environment which led us to increase MOL’s 12m-ex div. target price to HUF 3,240 and lift our recommendation to BUY from Neutral. MOL is expected to generate record CCS EBITDA of HUF 1,591 bn in 2022 on the back of cheap ural and high oil price. Share price implies a strikingly low 1.98x adj. P/E’22 and 3.6x P/E’23 (vs. LT avg. of 7-8x P/E) and 2.2x and 2.6 x EV/EBITDA (vs. LT avg. of 4.5x EV/EBITDA...
Raiffeisen Research Institutional Equity Daily 13.10.2022
AT: AGRANA - Final Q2 22/23 results confirm preliminary released key figures and the earlier adapted outlook (neutral) AT: Flughafen Wien - September traffic figures (neutral) HU: MOL - Swiss Supreme Court rejected Croatian government appeal of UNCITRAL ruling (neutral) PL: CCC - PLN 250 mn loan extended for 24 months, with tweaks to covenants and 80% guarantee from BGK (positive)
Raiffeisen Research Institutional Equity Daily 13.10.2022
AT: AGRANA - Final Q2 22/23 results confirm preliminary released key figures and the earlier adapted outlook (neurtral) AT: Flughafen Wien - September traffic figures (neutral) HU: MOL - Swiss Supreme Court rejected Croatian government appeal of UNCITRAL ruling (neutral) PL: CCC - PLN 250 mn loan extended for 24 months, with tweaks to covenants and 80% guarantee from BGK (positive)
Oil Market Bulletin - Can the EU embargo on Russian oils trigger an oi...
-The >30% correction of Brent price since June was mainly driven by rising concerns regarding global oil demand -We see several upside risks for the oil market in the near term, including a potential cut of OPEC supply and lower export of Russian oils -Assuming that Russia does not retaliate by cutting its oil supply, we reckon that an oil price shock could be avoided
Oil&Gas Sector News - Can Europe cover its gas consumption without Rus...
-European gas consumption seems to be well covered this year even without any future inflows from Russia -To cover its 2023 gas consumption, Europe needs to offer competitive prices in order to secure more LNG in 2023e -Higher level of gas in European storages could lower the price premium and push European gas prices to lower levels in Q4 22e and H1 23e
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