Re-focused and re-energised

Q1: EBIT 7-8% better. Profitably > volume growth, the right move. Q2e set to be ATH: '24e-'25e EPS up 4-7%. '24e & '25e P/E 11.2x and 9.3x: Multiple expansion next, BUY.

Sats (Buy, TP: NOK21.00) - On track

Despite underlying results slightly below consensus, we believe the Q1 report underlined that SATS is on track to deliver on its medium-term targets, with further potential from its existing club base longer-term. We reiterate our BUY and NOK21 target price.

A lot to like now organic growth has turned

Q1e: earnings beat as Network Solutions returned to org. growth. We raise '24e-'26e adj. EBITDA-capex by 3-4% on 3-4% higher sales. Low valuation, fruitful cost savings and easy comps: up to BUY (Hold).

Lifco AB: 1 director

A director at Lifco AB bought 2,000 shares at 262.600SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 54/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly show...

Improving market - BUY the leader

EBIT down 4-1%. Uptick in sold units to continue in Q2'24e. Housing market rebound in the making - BUY

A bolt from the blue

Biggest miss in five years, but should not be extrapolated. '24e-'26e EBITA down 7-3%. We keep HOLD, TP of SEK 255 unchanged.

Tough comps, but solid underlying progress

15% EBITA miss, weaker across the board

JM AB: 2 directors

Two Directors at JM AB bought/maiden bought 1,550 shares at between 183.170SEK and 184.000SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors ov...

Jm Ab (Sell, TP: SEK155.00) - Q1 EPS miss

Higher tax costs than forecast meant Q1 EPS missed expectations. Sales of new homes were broadly in line with our estimate – but starts were below, prompting us to cut our 2024e EPS by c19% and 2025e by c5%. However, expecting a catch-up effect, we have raised our 2026e EPS by c16%. In our view, the valuation is already pricing in a market recovery, while we still see a risk of setbacks, mainly from fewer and slower interest rate cuts, and we see a better risk/reward elsewhere in the sector. We ...

SELL built on high expectations

Despite cost cuts, EBITA is -19% y-o-y. Q2: positive LFL unlikely on tough opex comparable. We repeat SELL, more soft signals to come.

Renovation rules now a reality

The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. Member states will have two years to incorporate the provisions into their national legislation. While Q1 is Nordic construction’s low season due to winter effects, we see some downside risk to Q1e consensus and longer-term to 2024–2026e EBIT on lower development gains. We recommend a stock-picking approa...

Skanska (Buy, TP: SEK225.00) - Solid Q1 order intake expected

With no asset divestments of Commercial Development (CD) projects, we expect Q1 group EBIT to be below Infront consensus (results due at c07:30 CET on 8 May). However, with the strong announced orders, we expect a beat on order intake. KPIs in Residential Development (RD) are likely to be weak, we believe, but up from the all-time lows last year. We reiterate our BUY and SOTP-based target price of SEK225.

Jm Ab (Sell, TP: SEK155.00) - Hockey-stick recovery unlikely

The share price has rallied on the peak interest rate narrative, improved consumer sentiment and short covering, but new housing sales remain weak QTD. We expect Q1 profit to miss Infront consensus on price cuts, but starts to be above (results due at 08:00 CET on 23 April). Overall, we believe the share price has run too far ahead of the recovery and profit lead times are much longer than reflected in market expectations. We reiterate our SELL, but have raised our target price to SEK155 (130).

Sats (Buy, TP: NOK21.00) - Yields trump membership growth

Despite being marginally below consensus for Q1e, we are positive ahead of the report as we believe it should provide yet more evidence that SATS is on track to deliver on its medium-term targets to improve profitability. We reiterate our BUY and NOK21 target price, having made slight positive estimate revisions, as we continue to find the valuation attractive.

SATS - Lean and healthy

SATS continues manifestly to deliver on its strategy of premiumisation with currency adjusted membership revenue up 11% in Q423 (15% for the full year) and assurance of ‘significant unleashed potential’ within the existing estate in terms of capacity utilisation and membership yield. Operating leverage, complemented by tight cost control (Q423 currency adjusted opex down 2%) and minimal expansionary capex for the time being, provides scope for lucrative marginal revenue growth (Q423 EBITDA up te...

Sats (Buy, TP: NOK21.00) - Profitability improvement on track

We believe the Q4 report confirmed SATS is on track to improve its existing platform’s profitability through increased memberships, higher yields and good cost control. We have upgraded the stock to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to NOK21 (16) on our positive estimate revisions.

Sats (Hold, TP: NOK16.00) - Strong Q4 report

We consider this a positive report for SATS, including better than expected Q4 results and a membership base slightly above expectations. We expect 3–5% positive revisions to consensus 2024e EBITDA and believe a positive share price reaction is warranted.

Skanska (Buy, TP: SEK225.00) - Q4 raises our SOTP

The Q4 cash release of working capital and divestments raised Skanska’s adjusted cash position more than we expected, and in turn our SOTP and target price. As warned, the Q4 results were affected by asset writedowns in Residential Development (RD), Commercial Development (CD) and Investment Properties (IP), but the underlying construction operations did better than we expected. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK225 (215).

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK44.00) - New guidance structure

Q4 sales and EBITDA missed our forecasts as strategic brands sales were soft. The 2024 guidance was also soft but in a new better structure, we believe, for revenue growth of 7–10% CER (-4% in DKK) and adj. EBITDA growth of 10–16% in CER (-9% in DKK). We also note the decision to move Lu AF82422 into phase III in MSA. We reiterate our BUY and DKK44 target price.