Refining margins retreated again in April, by USD 1.2/bbl, to USD 12.6/bbl, remaining about 40% higher than usual for the season. Petrol cracks continued their seasonal rising trend, but diesel weakened more. Polymer margins had a positive month, but olefins and aromatics saw their margins go the other way.
HEADLINES: • mBank: revises up 1Q24 FX mortgage saga costs NEUTRAL • GEVORKYAN: 4Q23 results broadly in line; new contracts from Poland and Sweden NEUTRAL • DataWalk: preliminary 1Q24 results – sales up 100% yoy, to PLN 6.43m POSITIVE • DataWalk: key takeaways from the 1Q24 preliminary earnings call POSITIVE • Wirtualna Polska: real users in April 2024 NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: 1Q24E preview – 9% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth expected (due on 21 May) • Grupa Pracuj: 1Q24E results preview – flat y...
HEADLINES: • ING BSK: 1Q24 results softer than demanding market expectations, but our medium-term outlook confirmed NEGATIVE • Solutions by STC: mixed 1Q24 financial results NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (29 April-5 May) • Huuuge Games: April bookings estimate at USD 11m, down 21% mom NEGATIVE • Ten Square Games: April bookings estimate down 20% mom NEGATIVE • 11 bit studios: INDIKA release attracts very positive reviews on Steam, but low peak in number of players NEGATIVE • Cyf...
HEADLINES: • Komercni Banka: 1Q24 below market's expectations, on late-cycle provisions and revenue headwinds NEGATIVE • BRD-GSG: high level of provisions booked leads to bottom-line miss in 1Q24 NEUTRAL • Yapi Kredi: 1Q24 highlights • Czech Republic macro: MPC preparing the ground for slower rate cuts • Czech Republic macro: a sound recovery, despite stagnant exports • Wirtualna Polska: Itaka ends cooperation with Wakacje.pl NEGATIVE • Turkish automotive: ADA releases April light vehicle sales ...
EME Equity Market – April 2024 Market performance – green across all geographies, with Turkey outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index was up 5.3% mom in EUR terms and 4.2% mom in USD in April; while the Turkish ISE30 saw the strongest performance, adding 11.6% mom; followed by the Hungarian BUX (+5.0% mom); the Czech PX (+2.8% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+1.2% mom) and the Romanian BET (+0.1% mom) (all in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • CTP: better late than never (upgraded to BUY) • Georgia macro: protests in Tbilisi • Raiffeisen Bank International: posts solid 1Q24, keeps 2024E guidance (but only on ex. Russia and Belarus basis), facing huge pressure to address Russia and Belarus exposures from officials • Air Astana Group: 1Q24 – 15% ASK growth, RASK down slightly yoy, but CASK stable • Piraeus Financial Holdings: 1Q24 highlights NEUTRAL • Alkaloid: 1Q24 numbers a strong start to the year POSITIVE • National Ban...
HEADLINES: • Santander Bank Polska: 1Q24 results – 19%+ headline ROE affected only slightly by FX mortgage saga costs • Bank Pekao: 1Q24 results in line with market's expectations NEUTRAL • PCF Group: 4Q23 headlines hit heavily by write-offs, but a more limited EBITDA loss than we had expected NEUTRAL • Erste Bank: 1Q24 results NEUTRAL • OMV: 1Q24 results – chemicals stronger than expected NEUTRAL • Borouge: 1Q24 results – better than expected POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: 1Q24 results NEUTRAL • Garan...
HEADLINES: • MONETA Money Bank: strong 1Q24 delivery, on better-than- expected revenues POSITIVE • Alior Bank: books small beat on 1Q24 delivery, driven by low credit risk charges; robust 2024E outlook supported POSITIVE • Shoper: 1Q24 adjusted EBITDA 9% above our expectations; FY23 results in line with prelims POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: 4% miss vs. our 4Q23 adjusted EBITDA forecast, weak cash flows NEGATIVE • Wizz Air: fiscal 2024 post-close trading update POSITIVE • Aselsan: CEO's comments on exports...
HEADLINES: • Kaspi.kz: 1Q24 highlights Kruk: buys more portfolios in Italy • Tupras: launches USD 256m propylene investment NEUTRAL • Turkish banks: coverage UNDER REVIEW • Sipchem: 1Q24E results preview (due on 25 April) NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: 1Q24E results preview – 11% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 26 April, before the open) • Erste Bank: 1Q24E preview (due on 30 April) • BRD-GSG: 1Q24E preview (due on 2 May) NEUTRAL • PKO BP: 1Q24E preview (due on 9 May) • Banca Transilvania: 1Q24E...
HEADLINES: • Coca-Cola İçecek: to new horizons (stays BUY) • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (15-21 April) • Benefit Systems: acquires 18.5% stake in SmartLunch in exchange for shares in Lunching and a PLN 38m cash payment NEUTRAL • Georgia macro: offshore law passes third reading • Kazatomprom: BoD proposes a dividend of KZT 1,213/share NEUTRAL • Short News (HUG, OPL, MTELEKOM)
• LPP: the glass is half full (stays BUY) • Eurocash: 4Q23 beat on costs, profit warning for 1Q24E • 11 bit studios: 4Q23 adjusted EBITDA beats expectations on a solid top line • Polish banks: 2024 contributions to the BFG • MOL: oil production starts on a new platform at ACG field • Ford Otosan: completes the Eurobond book-building process • Kalekim: 2023 IAS 29 results - strong operating results • Lamda: 4Q23 results - a significant step-up in Ellinikon revenues, revaluation gain on existing m...
HEADLINES: • Lamda: 4Q23 results - significant step-up in Ellinikon revenues, revaluation gain on existing malls • Electrica: proposed changes to the regulatory framework • Bank Pekao: AGM chooses new Supervisory Board members, approves PLN 19.2 DPS • 11 bit studios: release date of INDIKA moved to 2 May • Nuclearelectrica: shareholders abstain from voting on the items from yesterday’s GMS • EMEA airlines: 1Q24 traffic - a good start to the year • Budimex: 1Q24E flat yoy - profitability improvem...
HEADLINES: • Sok Marketler: weak performance in the 4Q23 results • Inter Cars: targets 15-17% yoy revenue growth this year • Polish telecoms: telecommunications fee to grow from 0.05% of sales to 0.15% sales • Polish media: CPS audience share at 21.53%, WP TV at 0.61% in March 2024 • OMV Petrom: 1Q24E results preview (due out 30 April)
• Pegasus Airlines: 1Q24 traffic - international ASK up 85% vs. 1Q19 • 11 bit studios: Frostpunk 2 Beta now available for seven days, first gameplay deep dive trailer released • VIGO Photonics: 1Q24 sales down 16% yoy to PLN 15.8m • Grupa Pracuj: new online job ads number down 19% yoy in March 2024 • Auto Partner: earnings call takeaways - solid FY24E outlook maintained, despite disappointing March sales • CCC: key takeaways from the recent site visit • Kazatomprom: awarded a licence for Rare Ea...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: reassessing the inflation and rates outlook to 2025E eop • Benefit Systems: strong momentum continues • Dom Development: volume growth, margins stronger for longer (stays BUY) • Kazakhstan macro: NBK keeps policy rate on hold, at 14.75% • Ford Otosan: to issue Eurobond • Bank Pekao: 1Q24E preview (results due on 30 April) • Santander Bank Polska: 1Q24E preview (results due on 30 April) • ING BSK: 1Q24E preview (results due on 7 May) • Short News (HUG)
We maintain our BUY on Benefit Systems (BFT). Our new 12-month price target (PT) of PLN 3,400 (up by 26%) offers 23% potential upside. We have increased our 2024-26E adjusted EBIT forecasts by 20-26%, due mostly to our higher profitability assumptions, reflecting the positive surprises in recent quarters, the company’s strong January-February guidance, and our 1Q24E expectations. We expect 32% yoy growth in the adjusted EBIT this year, driven by 24% top-line growth and 1.3ppt yoy higher profitab...
HEADLINES: • Greek banks: life after the windfall (Alpha, Eurobank, NBG and Piraeus – transfer of coverage) • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Orlen: announces PLN 1.6bn of probable trading losses NEGATIVE • ING BSK: AGM approves PLN 33.35 DPS NEUTRAL • Public Power Corporation: partners with Mytilineos for 2GW solar portfolio NEUTRAL • InPost: PPF realises option to buy 10% stake • ONE United Properties: founders and others selling up to 9.5% in ABB • PKO BP: ...
HEADLINES: • Auto Partner: 4Q23 EBITDA misses our forecast by 4%, but the consensus by 12% NEGATIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: 4Q23 results review – adjusted EBITDA down 17% yoy, 4% below the consensus NEGATIVE • Warsaw Stock Exchange: 4Q23 bottom-line beat lacking some quality NEUTRAL • Pepco Group: lfl worsens to -2.9% in 2Q24; new CEO appointed NEGATIVE • DataWalk: actual 4Q23 numbers fully in line with the preliminaries; strong 1Q24 sales funnel POSITIVE • CEZ: Parliament formally drops Lex CEZ 2.0 N...
HEADLINES: • Middle Eastern Oil Services: we’re going with what’s growing (ADNOC Drilling upgraded to BUY, Arabian Drilling downgraded to HOLD) • Public Power Corporation: 4Q23 earnings review NEUTRAL • Kruk: 1Q24 trading update shows strong recoveries POSITIVE • Budimex: 4Q23 figures in line with the preliminary guidance NEUTRAL • Budimex: management recommends PLN 35.69 DPS (5% dividend yield), above our expectations POSITIVE • Polish utilities: Industry Ministry plans to link mines to coal-fi...
HEADLINES: • OMV Petrom: 1Q24 trading statement POSITIVE • OMV: 1Q24 trading statement NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: 1Q24E CHF mortgage saga provisions land at PLN 507m NEUTRAL • Polish gencos: IndMin floats notion of alternative solution to the NABE NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (1-7 April) • Halyk Savings Bank: pays off State aid fully POSITIVE • Orange Polska: key takeaways from the interview with the CTO NEUTRAL • Polish telecoms: mobile number portability in 1Q24 NEUTRAL • Pub...
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