Luxury goods: The trend should gradually improve in 2025 after a chall...

After a poor 2024 vintage, we expect a gradual recovery during 2025, which will nevertheless remain a soft year as we anticipate an average sales increase of just 4% for our luxury groups sample (+3% excluding Hermès). Q1 is set to be challenging with a 1% average sales decline (-2% excluding Hermès

On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #61

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how Trump's hectic trade policy impacts US consumer sentiment. Happy read

Ferragamo: visibility on 2025 still poor

2024 results were in line with market expectations. Adjusted EBIT fell 56% to EUR35m, implying a further profitability erosion (-350bp to 3.3%). During yesterday's analysts' call, management stated that the 2025 consensus is achievable (for both top line and EBIT). Given the lack of visibility, we

Ferragamo: DTC trends stabilising but FY24e EBIT under pressure

Yesterday, Ferragamo published another disappointing quarter with Q3 2024 sales down 7.4% FX-n. Management guided for FY24e EBIT to reach EUR30m vs. CSSe midpoint of EUR43m, implying only EUR3m in EBIT in H2. As the environment remains complicated for the sector and even more so for brands in turna

Luxury Goods: beware of excessive optimism on China in the near term

Although most stocks in our luxury sample rebounded last week following the launch of a stimulus "bazooka" by the Chinese authorities, we expect no material improvement in China's consumption or household confidence in the near term. As such, we would not be surprised if the Chinese government were

Luxury Goods: only a very slight rebound expected in H2

As expected, H1 was a poor vintage for Luxury groups. On average, our luxury groups sample achieved 1% organic sales growth, in line with Q1. Only Hermès, Moncler and Brunello Cucinelli enjoyed double-digit growth. Consequently, H1 profitability came under pressure. H2 is not expected to be much be

Ferragamo: H1 2024 profitability beat with signs of improvement

Ferragamo published an encouraging set of H1 2024 results which were still negative. The company delivered a clear beat at the bottom-line level, with EBIT down 41% coming in 39% ahead of EBIT CSS expectations. The positive surprise on profitability stemmed from a clear opex reduction over H1, desp

Luxury Goods: H1 profitability under pressure

We turn more cautious on the sector as recent newsflows points to a deterioration of China's macro. H1 should prove to be challenging for the sector with Q2 growth expected to decelerate sequentially from +1% FX-n in Q2 to zero in Q2. With lower topline growth, Luxury groups will be under pressure

Salvatore Ferragamo: 1 director

A director at Salvatore Ferragamo bought 26,579 shares at 9.670EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 76/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cl...

Ferragamo Q1 24: operating performance remains underwhelming

Yesterday, Ferragamo published another disappointing quarter with Q1 24 sales down -17% FX-n. Both retail and wholesale channel sales were down and sales declined in every region. As the environment remains complicated for brands in turnaround, we do not expect to see an inflection point in Ferraga

Ferragamo Q1 preview: far from a sales inflection point

Ahead of Ferragamo's Q1 publication on the 9th May, we become even more cautious on the name as Kering's warning due to Gucci (-20% expected) and a recent contact with the company prompt us to believe that consensus figures for Q1 (-2% lfl sales growth) and FY24 (+2% lfl sales growth) are overly op

Ferragamo: GM expansion and opex decline in H2 helped deliver profitab...

Salvatore Ferragamo released its FY23 results and delivered a clear beat at bottom-line level coming in 13% ahead of CSS expectations. The positive surprise on profitability stemmed from Gross Margin improvement thanks to a focus on higher quality of sales and better product mix whilst management k

Salvatore Ferragamo - Additional investments expected in FY24 (Sell vs...

Among the Luxury groups in our coverage, Kering, Tod's Group and Salvatore Ferragamo are facing the same challenges to relaunch their main brands in a far more mixed environment. Implementing a successful brand turnaround strategy is not easy as we all know. Initial indications prompt us to remain

Turnaround stories are not always successful

Among the Luxury groups in our coverage, Kering, Tod's Group and Salvatore Ferragamo are facing the same challenges to relaunch their main brands in a far more mixed environment. Implementing a successful brand turnaround strategy is not easy as we all know. Initial indications prompt us to remain

Italian Luxury Goods: turn-around derby

Tod's Group & Ferragamo are comparable in a lot of ways. They are both Italian family-owned luxury groups that are similar in size and have undergone a transition period. However, Tod's is currently in more positive shape than the Florentine group, hence our Buy recommendation for Tod's group a

Luxury Goods: normalising demand to limit upside in H2

Where do we stand after H1?Since the start of the year, we have been positive on the European Luxury Goods sector on expectations that China's reopening would bolster Luxury Goods sales throughout 2023. Q2 sales grew 17% on average. As expected, Hermès (+27%), Moncler (+26%) and Tod's Group (+24%)

Bryan, Garnier & Co Consumer Daily | Essilor Luxottica, Food retail, r...

Bryan, Garnier & Co Consumer Daily | RBREW, SFER, French Food

Ferragamo: still too early for a positive inflection

Salvatore Ferragamo results were in line with expectations. EBIT came in at EUR128m (-11%), implying EBIT margin erosion of 240bp due to a significant increase in communication costs. Moreover, management was not very clear during yesterday's conference call on current momentum in China. We remain

SALVATORE FERRAGAMO: Ambitious plan for 2021-26 but with still lack of...

SALVATORE FERRAGAMO - NEUTRAL | EUR20 vs. EUR19 Ambitious plan for 2021-26 but with still lack of visibility on short and medium term Q1 revenues grew 20.6%, above expectations Ferragamo sales should double towards 2026 according to management plan but we are more cautious We keep a cautious view at this stage!