Ferragamo: DTC trends stabilising but FY24e EBIT under pressure

Yesterday, Ferragamo published another disappointing quarter with Q3 2024 sales down 7.4% FX-n. Management guided for FY24e EBIT to reach EUR30m vs. CSSe midpoint of EUR43m, implying only EUR3m in EBIT in H2. As the environment remains complicated for the sector and even more so for brands in turna

Luxury Goods: beware of excessive optimism on China in the near term

Although most stocks in our luxury sample rebounded last week following the launch of a stimulus "bazooka" by the Chinese authorities, we expect no material improvement in China's consumption or household confidence in the near term. As such, we would not be surprised if the Chinese government were

Luxury Goods: only a very slight rebound expected in H2

As expected, H1 was a poor vintage for Luxury groups. On average, our luxury groups sample achieved 1% organic sales growth, in line with Q1. Only Hermès, Moncler and Brunello Cucinelli enjoyed double-digit growth. Consequently, H1 profitability came under pressure. H2 is not expected to be much be

Ferragamo: H1 2024 profitability beat with signs of improvement

Ferragamo published an encouraging set of H1 2024 results which were still negative. The company delivered a clear beat at the bottom-line level, with EBIT down 41% coming in 39% ahead of EBIT CSS expectations. The positive surprise on profitability stemmed from a clear opex reduction over H1, desp

Luxury Goods: H1 profitability under pressure

We turn more cautious on the sector as recent newsflows points to a deterioration of China's macro. H1 should prove to be challenging for the sector with Q2 growth expected to decelerate sequentially from +1% FX-n in Q2 to zero in Q2. With lower topline growth, Luxury groups will be under pressure

Salvatore Ferragamo: 1 director

A director at Salvatore Ferragamo bought 26,579 shares at 9.670EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 76/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cl...

Ferragamo Q1 24: operating performance remains underwhelming

Yesterday, Ferragamo published another disappointing quarter with Q1 24 sales down -17% FX-n. Both retail and wholesale channel sales were down and sales declined in every region. As the environment remains complicated for brands in turnaround, we do not expect to see an inflection point in Ferraga

Tod''S S.p.A.: 1 director

A director at Tod'S S.p.A. sold 162,650 shares at 43.000EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...

On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #27

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we take a look at the Q1 earnings season in the US, which is set to be a good vintag

Ferragamo Q1 preview: far from a sales inflection point

Ahead of Ferragamo's Q1 publication on the 9th May, we become even more cautious on the name as Kering's warning due to Gucci (-20% expected) and a recent contact with the company prompt us to believe that consensus figures for Q1 (-2% lfl sales growth) and FY24 (+2% lfl sales growth) are overly op

Ferragamo: GM expansion and opex decline in H2 helped deliver profitab...

Salvatore Ferragamo released its FY23 results and delivered a clear beat at bottom-line level coming in 13% ahead of CSS expectations. The positive surprise on profitability stemmed from Gross Margin improvement thanks to a focus on higher quality of sales and better product mix whilst management k

Tod's Group receives a tender offer from L Catterton

Tod's Group (Buy | PT: EUR45 vs EUR49)

Among the Luxury groups in our coverage, Kering, Tod's Group and Salvatore Ferragamo are facing the same challenges to relaunch their main brands in a far more mixed environment. Implementing a successful brand turnaround strategy is not easy as we all know. Initial indications prompt us to remain

Salvatore Ferragamo - Additional investments expected in FY24 (Sell vs...

Among the Luxury groups in our coverage, Kering, Tod's Group and Salvatore Ferragamo are facing the same challenges to relaunch their main brands in a far more mixed environment. Implementing a successful brand turnaround strategy is not easy as we all know. Initial indications prompt us to remain

Turnaround stories are not always successful

Among the Luxury groups in our coverage, Kering, Tod's Group and Salvatore Ferragamo are facing the same challenges to relaunch their main brands in a far more mixed environment. Implementing a successful brand turnaround strategy is not easy as we all know. Initial indications prompt us to remain

Italian Luxury Goods: turn-around derby

Tod's Group & Ferragamo are comparable in a lot of ways. They are both Italian family-owned luxury groups that are similar in size and have undergone a transition period. However, Tod's is currently in more positive shape than the Florentine group, hence our Buy recommendation for Tod's group a

Luxury Goods: normalising demand to limit upside in H2

Where do we stand after H1?Since the start of the year, we have been positive on the European Luxury Goods sector on expectations that China's reopening would bolster Luxury Goods sales throughout 2023. Q2 sales grew 17% on average. As expected, Hermès (+27%), Moncler (+26%) and Tod's Group (+24%)

Luxury Goods: VICs keep splashing out

Despite questions raised by investors on China's reopening, and US market normalization, we still expect strong growth in Q2 2023e (+15% y/y FX-n) for our Luxury goods coverage. Beyond Q2, we remain strongly convinced by the growth potential of the China luxury market especially for the most exclus

Time to be more positive on Tod's Group

After nearly two years of investments to enhance desirability of the group's brands, Tod's Group seems to be back on a growth trajectory. We have now turned positive on Tod's Group as we find that its brands have gained momentum across Europe and Asia. Across our coverage, Tod's should be one of th

Bryan, Garnier & Co Consumer Daily | Claranova, Mr Spex, MdM, Tod's