Greater China Economics | Money Supply M1 growth fell to 6.2% yoy in October, short of expectations, while M2 growth eased to 8.2% yoy. New bank loans dropped sharply to Rmb0.22t, and new TSF fell to Rmb0.81t, both below forecasts. Outstanding TSF and bank loan growth moderated to 8.5% (-0.2ppt mom) and 6.5% yoy (-0.1ppt mom) respectively, with the decline led by household loans. The numbers are not encouraging. Sector Update | Automobile China’s PV retail sales basically remained flat yoy in O...
Company Update | PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB/HOLD/Bt20.40/Target: Bt20.00) PTTGC successfully met its management-set targets in early-25. Supported by lower interest expenses, higher ethane feedstock utilisation, and reduced SG&A costs from Allnex, earnings are expected to improve noticeably in 2026. Although the olefins spread outlook remains weak, supply conditions are expected to ease during the year. We have revised down our 2026 earnings forecast but continue to anticipate a solid recover...
Top Stories Company Results | AP (Thailand) (AP TB/BUY/Bt7.90/Target: Bt9.30) AP posted a net profit of Bt1.15b in 3Q25 (-20% yoy, +15% qoq), in line with our estimate. The qoq improvement was underpinned by a solid performance in the low-rise segment, improved gross margin and higher equity income. AP revised down its 2025 launch plan from Bt65.0b to Bt59.6b. However, we are optimistic about the presales and earnings outlook for 4Q25. We still like AP as the market leader with a more aggressi...
Company Results | PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB/SELL/Bt20.90/Target: Bt21.00) PTTGC reported a net loss of Bt2.9b in 3Q25, narrowing both qoq and yoy, mainly driven by higher extra gains, while core earnings remained flat qoq. The olefins chain continued to face a weak performance, though the impact was partially offset by lower interest expenses and the recognition of deferred tax assets. Looking ahead, 4Q25 earnings are expected to remain in a net loss, with a continued negative outlook for th...
Top Stories Company Results | Berli Jucker (BJC TB/BUY/Bt18.80/Target: Bt24.00) 3Q25 net profit declined yoy, in line with our estimate. The key drag remained the weak performance of the modern retail business. Earnings momentum in 4Q25 will continue to be driven by BJC’s non-retail businesses, supported by improving trends in the packaging and consumer segments, while the modern retail business is expected to gradually recover. Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt24.00. Company Results | P...
Greater China Strategy | Small/Mid Cap Monthly – BUY JBM Healthcare On Recent Price Corrections We attribute JBM’s recent price correction to the absence of positive profit alert for 1HFY26, which disappointed the market. We believe the market overreacted, given: a) a relatively high base in 1HFY25, following a 112% EPS CAGR in 1HFY22-1HFY25; b) solid 1HFY26 performance, backed by robust volume growth of its iconic products and gross margin expansion; and c) undemanding valuations of 10.0x FY26F...
Company Update | PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB/SELL/Bt23.90/Target: Bt21.00) We expect PTTGC to report a net loss of Bt2.9b in 3Q25, narrowing both qoq and yoy, supported by higher special gains, while core earnings could remain flat qoq. The olefins and polymer businesses continue to underperform, leading us to anticipate another net loss in 4Q25. We have revised down our 2025 earnings forecast and maintain a cautious outlook on the petrochemical business. Maintain SELL. Target price: Bt21.00...
Top Stories Company Results | Kiatnakin Phatra Bank (KKP TB/HOLD/Bt65.00/Target: Bt68.00) KKP reported a net profit of Bt1.67b for 3Q25, increasing 28% yoy and 19% qoq. The results beat our and consensus expectations by 41% and 33%, respectively. The key positive surprise was a qoq jump in investment gain and a reduction in provision expenses. The CEO guides that the bank will focus on asset quality and lend selectively. We should see a continuous improvement in the loan portfolio’s quality. ...
Greater China Economics | Economic Activity China’s 3Q25 GDP growth slowed to 4.8% yoy, 9M25 growth to 5.1%. Ytd FAI fell 0.5% yoy, dragged by property FAI (-13.9% ytd yoy). September's industrial production rose 6.5% yoy, but retail sales growth eased to 3.0% yoy. With the stronger-than-expected 9M25 growth, we raise the full-year real GDP growth forecast to 5.0% yoy. That said, further policy support is still needed and we expect proposals for the 15th Five-year Plan to provide further clu...
We expect a short-term positive sentiment following the production cut announcements by olefins producers in China and South Korea, driven by weak spreads. The scale of the cuts is modest relative to global olefins capacity and the additional supply expected in 2025-29. We therefore expect the olefins market to remain in oversupply and maintain our underweight and negative outlook on the petrochemical sector. Maintain SELL. Target price: Bt20.00
GREATER CHINA Results CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK/BUY/HK$10.51/Target: HK$12.00) 1H25: Results miss; expects hoh sales recovery and two more BD deals in 2H25. Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK/BUY/HK$30.80/Target: HK$40.00) 2Q25: Net loss in line; 3Q25 turnaround on the back of lithium carbonate price recovery. Maintain BUY, target price: HK$40.00. Li Ning (2331 HK/HOLD/HK$19.70/Target: HK$18.90) 1H25: Results beat but challenges remain in 2H25; fa...
PTTGC reported a net loss of Bt3.6b in 2Q25, in line with our expectation, but 8% higher than consensus estimate. The 2Q25 net loss increased qoq due to higher stock losses. 2Q25 core earnings saw a slight improvement, driven by higher GRM and aromatics spreads. We have revised down our 2025 core earnings forecast to reflect the slower-than-expected performance recovery. Maintain SELL. Target price: Bt20.00
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Amata Corporation (AMATA TB/BUY/Bt16.50/Target: Bt25.00) 2Q25: Earnings below expectations. AP Thailand (AP TB/BUY/Bt7.65/Target: Bt9.60) 2Q25: Earnings in line, optimistic 3Q25 outlook. Bangkok Commercial Asset Management (BAM TB/BUY/Bt8.40/Target: Bt10.00) 2Q25: Results in line with consensus; highest bottom line in the past 22 quarters. Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB/BUY...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Krungthai Card (KTC TB/BUY/Bt27.75/Target: Bt45.00) 2Q25: Results in line; robust bottom line performance and strong asset quality affirm the company's fundamental resilience despite recent share price volatility. TMBThanachart Bank (TTB TB/HOLD/Bt1.89/Target: Bt1.95) 2Q25: Results in line; well-managed asset quality. Update PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB/SELL/Bt22.50/Target: Bt20.00) 2Q25 core earnings expected to remain a loss. Downgrade to SELL.
GREATER CHINA Sector Property: Operational update and 1H25 earnings preview for CR Land and COLI. Update Tiangong International (826 HK/NOT RATED/HK$2.10): Leading global provider of specialty steels benefitting from recovery. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ/BUY/Rp810/Target: Rp1,300): A blue ocean leader in integrated mobility and logistics. MALAYSIA Update PPB Group (PEP MK/BUY/RM9.63/Target: RM15.80): We expect 2Q25 results to come in flat qoq at RM340m-370m, given st...
In 1Q25, earnings under our coverage are at Bt201.14b (-0.1% yoy, +46.2% qoq). The qoq increase was due to seasonality. The banking, telecommunications and consumer staples sectors reported remarkable results. For 2025 we reduce earnings growth by 3.8%, but opportunities remain in domestic and external plays. Overall, we lower 2025F EPS to Bt80 from Bt94and our SET target to 1,280 (from 1,500 in 1Q25) based on 16.0x forward PE. Top picks are ADVANC, RATCH, BCH, IVL, PTTGC.
GREATER CHINA Results Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK/BUY/HK$4.89/Target: HK$6.20) FY25: Results in line; targets adjusted net earnings growth of 10-20% yoy in FY26. Trip.com (9961 HK/BUY/HK$505.50/Target: HK$635.00) 1Q25: Earnings beat; international tourism and AI integration investments as key catalysts. Update Tsingtao Brewery (168 HK/BUY/HK$56.45/Target: HK$66.70) Focus on sales volume and profit growth; aims to raise dividend payo...
We expect PTTGC to post a 1Q25 loss of Bt2.7b, narrowing from 4Q24, supported by improved performances in the refinery business, olefins chain, and Allnex. The olefins chain benefitted from a higher proportion of ethane feedstock, and helped to ease pressure on the olefin spread, which remains weak due to the ongoing supply and demand challenges. Looking ahead, we anticipate a qoq earnings recovery in 2Q25, supported by a rebound in olefin spreads. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt21.00.
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