Greater China Company Results | Yum China Holdings, Inc (9987 HK/NOT RATED/HK$392.40) In 4Q25, YUMC’s total revenue reached US$2,823m, up 9% yoy. Total system sales grew 7% yoy, with a 3% increase in same-store sales. Operating profit rose 25% yoy to US$187m, with operating margin at 6.6% (+80bp). For 1Q26, management targets positive SSS. It aims to maintain flat yoy restaurant margin and operating profit margin on a high base. For 2026, it expects to open more than 1,900 net new stores, wi...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite the risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, and Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebala...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property CRIC data show that the top 100 developers’ contracted sales fell 24.7% yoy in Jan 26, while new-home sales in 28 major cities declined 36% yoy. Second-hand transactions in three Tier 1 cities rose 1% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT but deepening industry downturn leads to rising possibility of policy support, supporting selective exposure. CR Land remains our top pick, with P/B at 1SD below the five-year mean, and PE and yield near the five-year average....
Company Update | Home Product Center (HMPRO TB/HOLD/Bt6.75/Target: Bt6.30) Expect 4Q25 earnings to drop yoy, pressured by weak SSSG, higher SG&A and lower other income. These were partly offset by gross margin expansion. The stock tends to outperform the SET Index in the pre-election period and underperform thereafter. Maintain HOLD with a target price of Bt6.30.
Greater China Company Update | Anta Sports (2020 HK/BUY/HK$82.55/Target: HK$103.40) In 4Q25, the Anta brand’s retail sales missed expectations, recording a low single-digit decline. In contrast, Fila achieved mid-single-digit growth, accelerating from low single-digit growth in 3Q25, and all other brands continued to demonstrate robust growth at 35-40%. For 2026, management expects group-level operating margin to face pressure due to the need for sustained investment in both the Anta brand and F...
Top Stories Company Results | Bangkok Bank (BBL TB/SELL/Bt170.50/Target: Bt140.00) BBL posted a 4Q25 net profit of Bt7.76b, -25% yoy and -44% qoq. The results missed both our and consensus expectations by 27% due to a large reduction in investment gain and higher-than-expected opex. We expect no further material investment gains in the future. BBL attributed the jump in opex to the accrued expenses for consulting and numerous investment projects. Downgrade to SELL with a lower target price of B...
Company Update | PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB/BUY/Bt20.80/Target: Bt25.00) We view PTTGC as attractively valued, with its P/B currently trading at more than -2.0SD, below the historical average. We expect earnings to have already bottomed in 2025. While we think PTTGC’s strategic partner plan will be concluded by 1Q26, PTTGC’s financial position remains solid following deleveraging in 2025. Accordingly, we upgrade PTTGC to BUY, with a higher target price of Bt25.00.
Top Stories Company Update | i-Tail Corporation (ITC TB/BUY/Bt16.30/Target: Bt19.50) We expect ITC to report a core profit of Bt806m for 4Q25 (flat yoy, but up 2.5% qoq). 4Q25 gross profit margin is projected to remain at 25%, supported by a strong premium product mix, despite forex headwinds and the implementation of a sales rebate scheme. The 2026 outlook remains positive, supported by favourable industry trends and a higher premium mix. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of Bt19.50 (pre...
Greater China Company Update | Baidu (9888 HK/BUY/HK$146.60/Target: HK$166.00) We are optimistic on Baidu as the Kunlunxin spin-off could help unlock financial value for Baidu and strengthen its AI ecosystem. Baidu announced that on 1 Jan 26, Kunlunxin applied for a listing on the HK Stock Exchange. Following the spin-off, Kunlunxin will remain a consolidated subsidiary, with Baidu retaining a controlling 59% stake. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$166.00 (US$185.00). Company ...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December pic...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December...
Greater China Economics | Money Supply M1 growth fell to 6.2% yoy in October, short of expectations, while M2 growth eased to 8.2% yoy. New bank loans dropped sharply to Rmb0.22t, and new TSF fell to Rmb0.81t, both below forecasts. Outstanding TSF and bank loan growth moderated to 8.5% (-0.2ppt mom) and 6.5% yoy (-0.1ppt mom) respectively, with the decline led by household loans. The numbers are not encouraging. Sector Update | Automobile China’s PV retail sales basically remained flat yoy in O...
Company Update | PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB/HOLD/Bt20.40/Target: Bt20.00) PTTGC successfully met its management-set targets in early-25. Supported by lower interest expenses, higher ethane feedstock utilisation, and reduced SG&A costs from Allnex, earnings are expected to improve noticeably in 2026. Although the olefins spread outlook remains weak, supply conditions are expected to ease during the year. We have revised down our 2026 earnings forecast but continue to anticipate a solid recover...
Top Stories Company Results | AP (Thailand) (AP TB/BUY/Bt7.90/Target: Bt9.30) AP posted a net profit of Bt1.15b in 3Q25 (-20% yoy, +15% qoq), in line with our estimate. The qoq improvement was underpinned by a solid performance in the low-rise segment, improved gross margin and higher equity income. AP revised down its 2025 launch plan from Bt65.0b to Bt59.6b. However, we are optimistic about the presales and earnings outlook for 4Q25. We still like AP as the market leader with a more aggressi...
Company Results | PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB/SELL/Bt20.90/Target: Bt21.00) PTTGC reported a net loss of Bt2.9b in 3Q25, narrowing both qoq and yoy, mainly driven by higher extra gains, while core earnings remained flat qoq. The olefins chain continued to face a weak performance, though the impact was partially offset by lower interest expenses and the recognition of deferred tax assets. Looking ahead, 4Q25 earnings are expected to remain in a net loss, with a continued negative outlook for th...
Top Stories Company Results | Berli Jucker (BJC TB/BUY/Bt18.80/Target: Bt24.00) 3Q25 net profit declined yoy, in line with our estimate. The key drag remained the weak performance of the modern retail business. Earnings momentum in 4Q25 will continue to be driven by BJC’s non-retail businesses, supported by improving trends in the packaging and consumer segments, while the modern retail business is expected to gradually recover. Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt24.00. Company Results | P...
Greater China Strategy | Small/Mid Cap Monthly – BUY JBM Healthcare On Recent Price Corrections We attribute JBM’s recent price correction to the absence of positive profit alert for 1HFY26, which disappointed the market. We believe the market overreacted, given: a) a relatively high base in 1HFY25, following a 112% EPS CAGR in 1HFY22-1HFY25; b) solid 1HFY26 performance, backed by robust volume growth of its iconic products and gross margin expansion; and c) undemanding valuations of 10.0x FY26F...
Company Update | PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB/SELL/Bt23.90/Target: Bt21.00) We expect PTTGC to report a net loss of Bt2.9b in 3Q25, narrowing both qoq and yoy, supported by higher special gains, while core earnings could remain flat qoq. The olefins and polymer businesses continue to underperform, leading us to anticipate another net loss in 4Q25. We have revised down our 2025 earnings forecast and maintain a cautious outlook on the petrochemical business. Maintain SELL. Target price: Bt21.00...
Top Stories Company Results | Kiatnakin Phatra Bank (KKP TB/HOLD/Bt65.00/Target: Bt68.00) KKP reported a net profit of Bt1.67b for 3Q25, increasing 28% yoy and 19% qoq. The results beat our and consensus expectations by 41% and 33%, respectively. The key positive surprise was a qoq jump in investment gain and a reduction in provision expenses. The CEO guides that the bank will focus on asset quality and lend selectively. We should see a continuous improvement in the loan portfolio’s quality. ...
Greater China Economics | Economic Activity China’s 3Q25 GDP growth slowed to 4.8% yoy, 9M25 growth to 5.1%. Ytd FAI fell 0.5% yoy, dragged by property FAI (-13.9% ytd yoy). September's industrial production rose 6.5% yoy, but retail sales growth eased to 3.0% yoy. With the stronger-than-expected 9M25 growth, we raise the full-year real GDP growth forecast to 5.0% yoy. That said, further policy support is still needed and we expect proposals for the 15th Five-year Plan to provide further clu...
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