Greater China Economics | China China set a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0% yoy, in line with expectations, while maintaining a 4% fiscal deficit ratio. Fiscal policy remains the main growth driver, supported by Rmb4.4t in local government special bonds and Rmb1.3t in ultra-long treasury bonds, while monetary policy stays accommodative. Policy priorities focus on AI+, New Quality Productive Forces, industrial upgrading, and targeted consumption support, alongside welfare improvements and ...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: March Conviction Calls Chinese equities consolidated further in February, with the HSI and MSCI China Index declining 2.8% mom and 5.6% mom, respectively. March is expected to be volatile, as there are signs that the Middle East conflict could last for a while. We focus on names which have greater domestic exposure, adding Anta, China Duty Free, FII, Futu, Kuaishou and Tencent to our BUY list. Indonesia Strategy | Alpha Picks: Rotating To Commodities Amid M...
Greater China Economics | China Investors expect the NPC to set a 2026 real GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0% yoy, with policy support led primarily by fiscal measures while monetary easing remains complementary. The official deficit is likely capped at 4%, though augmented fiscal expansion via special bond issuance will provide additional support. The 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to prioritise hard-tech self-reliance, advanced manufacturing and curbing industrial involution, with only target...
Company Update | PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB/BUY/Bt26.50/Target: Bt31.00) We maintain our 2026 net profit forecast. Key positive drivers include higher capacity utilisation, lower production and financing costs, and the ongoing performance enhancement programme, all of which should support a return to profitability in 2026. The overall petrochemical outlook is turning more constructive, particularly in aromatics. While long-term oversupply in olefins is gradually easing, near-term supply press...
Top Stories Company Update | Airports of Thailand (AOT TB/BUY/Bt57.50/Target: Bt80.00) AOT delivered a positive 1QFY26 analyst meeting, with PSC hike approval signed on 9 Feb 26 and implementation expected in 4QFY26, prompting an 11% upgrade to our 2026 earnings forecast. AOT reported a 1QFY26 profit of Bt4.6b, beating our expectation despite the weaker concession revenue. Costs were below estimates and revenue was slightly stronger than expected. Overhangs from KPD and PSC are resolved. Upgra...
Greater China Economics | Money Supply M0 growth was weaker in Jan 26 due to Chinese New Year effects, while M2 growth rose to 9.0% yoy, the highest since 2023. New bank loans surged to Rmb4.71t and new TSF rose to Rmb7.22t, both above consensus forecasts. However, outstanding bank loan growth fell to a record-low 6.1% yoy, highlighting fragile underlying credit demand despite strong front-loaded lending. Sector Update | Healthcare HSHCI rose 1.8%, outperforming the HSI, which declined b...
Company Results | PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB/BUY/Bt25.50/Target: Bt28.00) PTTGC reported a 4Q25 net loss of Bt5.5b, beating both our and consensus expectations by 30% and 32% respectively. We expect core earnings to recover qoq in 1Q26. The process of securing a strategic partner for PTTGC is taking longer than expected. As the PP price offered to the strategic partner is above PTT’s cost base in PTTGC, PTTGC’s current share price provides more upside than that of TOP. Maintain BUY. Target pr...
Top Stories Company Results | PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB/BUY/Bt25.50/Target: Bt28.00) PTTGC reported a 4Q25 net loss of Bt5.5b, beating both our and consensus expectations by 30% and 32% respectively. We expect core earnings to recover qoq in 1Q26. The process of securing a strategic partner for PTTGC is taking longer than expected. As the PP price offered to the strategic partner is above PTT’s cost base in PTTGC, PTTGC’s current share price provides more upside than that of TOP. Maintain B...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property Recent equity placements proposals by Zhuhai Huafa Properties and Seazen signal improving equity financing conditions for mainland developers. Expected losses in 2025 will lower BPS for SOE/quasi-SOE developers, increasing the likelihood of state-owned capital injections amid industry consolidation. Jan 26 property sales data shows improved yoy performances in both the primary and secondary markets, partly due to a low base in Jan 25 which was impacte...
Greater China Company Results | Yum China Holdings, Inc (9987 HK/NOT RATED/HK$392.40) In 4Q25, YUMC’s total revenue reached US$2,823m, up 9% yoy. Total system sales grew 7% yoy, with a 3% increase in same-store sales. Operating profit rose 25% yoy to US$187m, with operating margin at 6.6% (+80bp). For 1Q26, management targets positive SSS. It aims to maintain flat yoy restaurant margin and operating profit margin on a high base. For 2026, it expects to open more than 1,900 net new stores, wi...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite the risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, and Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebala...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property CRIC data show that the top 100 developers’ contracted sales fell 24.7% yoy in Jan 26, while new-home sales in 28 major cities declined 36% yoy. Second-hand transactions in three Tier 1 cities rose 1% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT but deepening industry downturn leads to rising possibility of policy support, supporting selective exposure. CR Land remains our top pick, with P/B at 1SD below the five-year mean, and PE and yield near the five-year average....
Company Update | Home Product Center (HMPRO TB/HOLD/Bt6.75/Target: Bt6.30) Expect 4Q25 earnings to drop yoy, pressured by weak SSSG, higher SG&A and lower other income. These were partly offset by gross margin expansion. The stock tends to outperform the SET Index in the pre-election period and underperform thereafter. Maintain HOLD with a target price of Bt6.30.
Greater China Company Update | Anta Sports (2020 HK/BUY/HK$82.55/Target: HK$103.40) In 4Q25, the Anta brand’s retail sales missed expectations, recording a low single-digit decline. In contrast, Fila achieved mid-single-digit growth, accelerating from low single-digit growth in 3Q25, and all other brands continued to demonstrate robust growth at 35-40%. For 2026, management expects group-level operating margin to face pressure due to the need for sustained investment in both the Anta brand and F...
Top Stories Company Results | Bangkok Bank (BBL TB/SELL/Bt170.50/Target: Bt140.00) BBL posted a 4Q25 net profit of Bt7.76b, -25% yoy and -44% qoq. The results missed both our and consensus expectations by 27% due to a large reduction in investment gain and higher-than-expected opex. We expect no further material investment gains in the future. BBL attributed the jump in opex to the accrued expenses for consulting and numerous investment projects. Downgrade to SELL with a lower target price of B...
Company Update | PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB/BUY/Bt20.80/Target: Bt25.00) We view PTTGC as attractively valued, with its P/B currently trading at more than -2.0SD, below the historical average. We expect earnings to have already bottomed in 2025. While we think PTTGC’s strategic partner plan will be concluded by 1Q26, PTTGC’s financial position remains solid following deleveraging in 2025. Accordingly, we upgrade PTTGC to BUY, with a higher target price of Bt25.00.
Top Stories Company Update | i-Tail Corporation (ITC TB/BUY/Bt16.30/Target: Bt19.50) We expect ITC to report a core profit of Bt806m for 4Q25 (flat yoy, but up 2.5% qoq). 4Q25 gross profit margin is projected to remain at 25%, supported by a strong premium product mix, despite forex headwinds and the implementation of a sales rebate scheme. The 2026 outlook remains positive, supported by favourable industry trends and a higher premium mix. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of Bt19.50 (pre...
Greater China Company Update | Baidu (9888 HK/BUY/HK$146.60/Target: HK$166.00) We are optimistic on Baidu as the Kunlunxin spin-off could help unlock financial value for Baidu and strengthen its AI ecosystem. Baidu announced that on 1 Jan 26, Kunlunxin applied for a listing on the HK Stock Exchange. Following the spin-off, Kunlunxin will remain a consolidated subsidiary, with Baidu retaining a controlling 59% stake. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$166.00 (US$185.00). Company ...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December pic...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December...
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