EME Equity Market – November 2022 Market performance – Turkey does it again, breezing past everyone else, once more, in November. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 11.6% mom in EUR terms and 16.7% mom in USD. The ISE30 index, again, boasted the best performance among our coverage, adding 18.6% mom in EUR terms and 23.9% mom in local currency (lcl) terms. Positive performances were also recorded in the WIG (+14.0% EU /13.0% lcl mom), the BUX (+12.6% EUR/12.0% lcl mom), the BET (+8.4% EUR/8.6% lcl...
HEADLINES: • Saudi Arabian tech: from oil to data and beyond (initiating on Solutions by STC with a BUY, and Jahez with a HOLD) • Motor Oil Hellas: motoring beyond oil (stays BUY) • Kofola: 3Q22 conference call takeaways NEUTRAL • Photon Energy: increases stake in Lerta, plans to take full control by the year-end • PKO BP: Puls Biznesu on potential changes in management board NEGATIVE • Shoper: key takeaways from the PAP interview with the CEO on the 2023E outlook NEUTRAL • Alrosa: Mir mine p...
EME Equity Market – October 2022 Market performance – in a positive month across the board, Turkey outperforms yet again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 12.7% mom in EUR terms and 14.4% mom in USD. The ISE30 was, once again, the best-performing index in our coverage, adding 23.4% mom in EUR terms and 25.2% in local currency terms. All the other indices recorded positive performances as well, with the WIG (+14.8% EUR / 11.5% lcl), the BUX (+11.4% EUR / 8.5% lcl) and the ASE (+10.3% EUR) del...
HEADLINES: • LPP: 2Q22 above expectations; FY22E guidance maintained; Russian operations sold for PLN 1.7bn POSITIVE • CD Projekt: follow-up on strategy update - press comments and our 1-on-1 NEUTRAL • STS Group: 3Q NGR growth of 21% yoy POSITIVE • Alior Bank: tops up credit holiday provisions, implies take-up ratio of 69% NEUTRAL • Alrosa: excluded from the latest EU sanctions list NEUTRAL • Zagreb Stock Exchange: share buyback announcement NEUTRAL • Ten Square Games: 3Q22 bookings up by 11% q...
EME Equity Market – September 2022 Market performance – in a rough month for the markets, Turkey emerges as the top-performing region, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 8.3% mom in EUR terms and 10.7% mom in USD in September; while the ISE index outperformed all the other indices once again, but with a muted performance this time, adding just 1.0% mom in EUR terms and 0.1% in local currency terms. All the other indices recorded negative performances, with the Czech PX Index losing 4....
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: US macro - may be heading for 6% rates and recession • Shoper: 2Q22 adjusted EBITDA broadly in line with preliminary figure NEUTRAL • Santander Bank Polska: sees increase in OSII buffer - cross-read for Bank Pekao • PKO BP: sees OSII hike to 200bps (up from 100bps) • Polyus: 1H22 financial results - in line with consensus EBITDA, further pressure ahead NEUTRAL • Short News (COTE, SNP, SNG)
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: Greece - a positive growth story • Public Power Corporation: 2Q EBITDA +5% yoy, FY22E guidance maintained NEUTRAL • Ten Square Games: management call takeaways NEUTRAL • CD Projekt: Cyberpunk paid expansion next year not for old-generation consoles NEGATIVE • LiveChat Software: patents method of chat communication rating in the US POSITIVE • Wizz Air: Blue Air forced to suspend operations, positive for Wizz Air and Ryanair • Alrosa: key points from the Easter...
EME Equity Market – July 2022 Market performance – markets mostly up during the month, but Russia’s MOEX down 9.4% in EUR terms. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 2.3% mom in EUR, but lost 0.5% mom in USD in July. The Greek ASE Index was the best performing benchmark, advancing 5.0% mom in EUR. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 4.4% mom and 6.5% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Romania’s BET Index gained 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.3% mom in local currency, while Turkey’s ISE20 added...
HEADLINES: • Erdemir: attractive dividend yield, offset by cost pressures (HOLD - reinitiation of coverage) • Titan Cement: recovering lost ground (stays BUY) • Erste Bank: posts very solid 2Q22 results and guidance mix POSITIVE • Otokar: 2Q22 results - strong beat POSITIVE • Eurobank: strong 2Q22, guidance upgraded for 2022E • National Bank: another solid beat, with upside risks for 2022E forecasts • NLB Banka: 2Q22 results review - annualised ROE reaches as much as 20.8% • Zagreb Stock E...
HEADLINES: • Polish oil & gas: you can't have one, without the other (PKN Orlen stays BUY, Grupa Lotos upgraded to BUY) • Polymetal: considering potential disposal of Russian assets POSITIVE • Polyus/Polymetal: ban of Russian gold imports to the EU could be approved formally today NEGATIVE • Siauliu Bankas: 2Q22E results preview (due on 29 July) • Short News (EL, FP, TEL)
HEADLINES: • LiveChat Software: Zendesk, LVC's closest peer, to be acquired for USD 10.2bn POSITIVE • Fondul Proprietatea: results of the tender offer • OMV Petrom: reduction of price at pump might be voluntary and covered by cuts in other taxes • Alro: completes new automated extrusion line • Zagreb Stock Exchange: increases stake in Macedonian Stock Exchange to 17.05% • Polyus/Polymetal: US and G7 agree on import ban on new gold from Russia
AT: Flughafen Wien - Home carrier Austrian Airlines' summer capacities correspond to roughly 80% of pre Covid levels (neutral) CZ: CEZ - Acquiring Czech nuclear servicing company from Gazprombank (neutral) PL: Consumer - E-commerce momentum seems to weaken as survey shows 51% (down from 64%) declared lasting changes to shopping patterns (neutral) PL: Insurance - Insurers could raise mandatory motor insurance premiums for reckless drivers (positive) RO: Transgaz - Fitch keeps rating BBB...
HEADLINES: • Lotos: announces conditional dividend distribution POSITIVE • Bogdanka: Treasury kicks off acquisition of Enea's shares • CEZ: announces acquisition of Skoda JS, its major nuclear fleet supplier • Magyar Telekom: acquires fibre network covering 110k access points for HUF 6.95bn NEUTRAL • Polyus: buys 100% stake in Chulbatkan gold deposit from Highland Gold Mining POSITIVE • Short News (SNP, SNG, TGN)
ATX indices review - FFF and NoS changes in IMMOFINANZ and Marinomed Biotech AT: Flughafen Wien, Austrian State Holding - Head of state holding's supervisory board to step down, Flughafen Wien CFO Ofner rumoured to take the helm (neutral) AT: voestalpine - FY 21/22 EBITDA in line with guidance, improved CF in Q4, DPS of EUR 1.20; FY 22/23 EBITDA range of EUR 1.8-2.0 bn below headline consensus which however was rather sticky throughout spring (neutral) HU: OTP Bank - Windfall tax estimat...
CZ: CEZ - CEZ not to bid for RWE's storage assets in Czechia, press (neutral) PL: PKO BP - 9% wage hike offered to half of staff (neutral) RU: Polyus - New shareholder may add its representative to the board (neutral) RU: Tatneft - Proposed final DPS revealed weaker than expected payout for 2021 (negative)
AT: Erste Group - CEO Spalt will not extend his contract which ends in June 2023 (negative) CEE: Banks - UniCredit and Citi considering asset swaps with Russian financial institutions RO: Electrica - Dark cloud on the Electrica Q1 22 result, bottom line in red (negative) RO: One United Properties - Q1 22 revenues from sales of RON 197 mn, up 19% yoy, and a net profit of RON 166 mn, up 320% yoy (positive) RO: Purcari Wineries - Q1 22 net profit increased by 16.51% yoy (positive) RU: P...
EME Equity Market – April 2022 Market performance – regional benchmarks performance rather mixed in April. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 5.3% in EUR terms and by 9.9% in USD. The best-performing market was Turkey, whose equities gained 13.3% in EUR terms and 9.2% in local currency. Russia’s MOEX Index added 9.0% in EUR terms, but declined by 9.6% in local currency. In Greece, the ASE Index advanced by 4.9% in EUR terms, the last to end the month in the black; while Romania’s BET Index rec...
HEADLINES: • Romanian utilities: for those willing to wait (Electrica stays BUY, Transgaz stays HOLD, Transelectrica upgraded to HOLD) • Santander Bank Polska: 1Q22 results review - strong beat vs. expectations on low provisions • Bank Millennium: 1Q22 results review - results in line with expectations • Polish banks: government proposals to aid mortgagors may hit Polish banks' 2022-23E earnings NEGATIVE • Garanti: 1Q22 highlights NEUTRAL • Orange Polska: 1Q22 results - EBITDAaL up 2% yoy, in ...
HEADLINES: • Russian commodities: the long and short side of it • Arcelik: 1Q22 results - as expected NEUTRAL • Turkish banks: number of changes by the CBT • Ten Square Games: management recommends PLN 10 DPS from the 2021 net profit POSITIVE • Kety: management recommends PLN 52.4 DPS (8% dividend yield) from the 2021 profit NEUTRAL • Norilsk Nickel: final 2021 dividend yield at 5.9%, ADR holders may not receive payment • Alrosa: Russian rough diamonds stop flowing to main Indian manufacturi...
AT: AMAG - Multi-year order from Ruag Aerostructures (positive) AT: IMMOFINANZ - Radka Doehring appointed as a memeber of the executive board (neutral) AT: Polytec - FY 21 results broadly in line with expectations, no guidance on FY 22 (neutral) CZ: CEZ - CEZ to extend Detmarovice hard coal-fired power plant life byond H1 2023 for security of supply reasons (neutral) PL: PGNiG - Disappointing crude output and lower gas distribution volumes to weigh on Q1 earning (negative) RU: Fertil...
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