Greater China Economics | China Investors expect the NPC to set a 2026 real GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0% yoy, with policy support led primarily by fiscal measures while monetary easing remains complementary. The official deficit is likely capped at 4%, though augmented fiscal expansion via special bond issuance will provide additional support. The 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to prioritise hard-tech self-reliance, advanced manufacturing and curbing industrial involution, with only target...
Company Results | Central Pattana (CPN TB/BUY/Bt65.50/Target: Bt73.50) CPN’s 4Q25 results beat expectations. Core operations remained strong with a robust recovery in the residential segment. 2025 earnings rose 13% yoy. Its 2026 outlook remains promising with projected double-digit growth in core earnings. CPN has recommended a dividend payment with a yield of 3.7%. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt73.50.
Top Stories Company Results | Central Pattana (CPN TB/BUY/Bt65.50/Target: Bt73.50) CPN’s 4Q25 results beat expectations. Core operations remained strong with a robust recovery in the residential segment. 2025 earnings rose 13% yoy. Its 2026 outlook remains promising with projected double-digit growth in core earnings. CPN has recommended a dividend payment with a yield of 3.7%. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt73.50. Company Results | CP Axtra (CPAXT TB/HOLD/Bt16.20/Target: Bt14.80) CPAXT’s 4Q2...
Company Update | Central Pattana (CPN TB/BUY/Bt60.50/Target: Bt73.10) We expect CPN to deliver a robust 4Q25 normalised profit increasing both yoy and qoq, fuelled by a resilient shopping mall performance and year-end high season traffic. With foot traffic and tenant sales maintaining a healthy momentum, we remain optimistic about the 2026 outlook, anticipating double-digit earnings growth. Maintain BUY; target price: Bt73.10.
Top Stories Company Results | PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB/BUY/Bt25.50/Target: Bt28.00) PTTGC reported a 4Q25 net loss of Bt5.5b, beating both our and consensus expectations by 30% and 32% respectively. We expect core earnings to recover qoq in 1Q26. The process of securing a strategic partner for PTTGC is taking longer than expected. As the PP price offered to the strategic partner is above PTT’s cost base in PTTGC, PTTGC’s current share price provides more upside than that of TOP. Maintain B...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property CRIC data show that the top 100 developers’ contracted sales fell 24.7% yoy in Jan 26, while new-home sales in 28 major cities declined 36% yoy. Second-hand transactions in three Tier 1 cities rose 1% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT but deepening industry downturn leads to rising possibility of policy support, supporting selective exposure. CR Land remains our top pick, with P/B at 1SD below the five-year mean, and PE and yield near the five-year average....
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut buoyed sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom respectively amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Ja...
Company Results | Central Pattana (CPN TB/BUY/Bt50.25/Target: Bt73.10) CPN reported a net profit of Bt5.4b in 3Q25 (+31.5% yoy, +26% qoq), supported by one-off items. Core earnings were strong as expected, improving both yoy and qoq. We anticipate the resilient core operational performance continuing into 4Q25. We are optimistic about CPN, given its resilient performance and positive business outlook with expansion plans. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt73.10.
Top Stories Company Results | Central Pattana (CPN TB/BUY/Bt50.25/Target: Bt73.10) CPN reported a net profit of Bt5.4b in 3Q25 (+31.5% yoy, +26% qoq), supported by one-off items. Core earnings were strong as expected, improving both yoy and qoq. We anticipate the resilient core operational performance continuing into 4Q25. We are optimistic about CPN, given its resilient performance and positive business outlook with expansion plans. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt73.10. Company Update | Char...
Greater China Economics | Economic Activity Industrial production growth slowed sharply to 4.9% yoy in Oct 25 (-1.6ppt mom). FAI also stayed weak, falling 1.7% yoy ytd (-1.2ppt mom), dragged by property FAI which dropped 14.5% yoy ytd. Retail sales growth edged lower to 2.9% yoy (-0.1ppt yoy). On a positive note, unemployment improved to 5.1%. Overall, the data points to a weakening growth momentum. Indonesia Company Results | XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,720/Target: Rp3,10...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&C an...
Company Update | Central Pattana (CPN TB/BUY/Bt53.50/Target: Bt73.70) We expect CPN to report stronger core earnings in 3Q25, rising 7% yoy and 2% qoq, supported by continued strength in its rental and services business and effective cost management. We are optimistic about its 3Q25 earnings outlook and expect a solid performance in 4Q25, driven by resilient core operations, higher residential transfers, and sustained cost efficiency. Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt73.70.
Top Stories Company Results | PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP TB/BUY/Bt108.00/Target: Bt136.00) PTTEP reported a net profit of Bt12.7b in 3Q25, down 6% qoq, in line with our expectations but 8% below consensus estimates. Core profit declined 14% qoq, pressured by lower ASP and higher unit costs. Looking ahead, core profit in 4Q25 is expected to rebound qoq, driven by a 6-10% increase in sales volume and reduced unit costs. For 2025, PTTEP is not expected to record any impairment losses f...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls The HSI and MSCI China gained 7.1%/8.2% mom in September on Fed easing and optimism over advancements in semiconductors and AI. We remain positive in the medium term but expect near-term consolidation after the recent strong gains. The best performer of the month was Alibaba (+53.0% mom). With some rotations expected in non-tech stocks, our October calls are: add Galaxy, Jacobson, Ping An, Trip.com and WuXi Bio to BUY; SELL Meituan. ...
• Central Pattana (CPN) launched a new shopping mall, Central Park, aiming to be a new culinary landmark in Bangkok. We expect solid performance in 2H25, outpacing 1H25, supported by new projects. We remain optimistic about its earnings outlook and business plan, mainly driven by mall expansions and renovations. • Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt73.70.
Company Updates | Central Pattana (CPN TB/BUY/Bt55.50/Target: Bt73.70) CPN launched a new shopping mall, Central Park, aiming to be a new culinary landmark in Bangkok. We expect solid performance in 2H25, outpacing 1H25, supported by new projects. We remain optimistic about its earnings outlook and business plan, mainly driven mall expansions and renovations. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt73.70.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: Add Anta, BYDE and CSCEC to our BUY list, Li Auto and OOIL to our SELL list. Take profit on Innovent, JD Logistics, Lenovo, Sino Biopharm, Tencent and TME. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In August: Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, ARCI, BBCA, BBNI, BRMS, MTEL, HRUM and NCKL. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Wake Me Up When September Ends: Our Aug 25 Alpha Picks underperformed marginally. Sep 25 picks: Alpha IVF, Hume ...
The 2H25 outlook appears more favourable than that for 1H25, with improvements expected across all business segments, particularly in the rental & service business as well as the residential segment. We continue to favour CPN’s core business alongside its strategic project launches, while the company’s share repurchase programme should provide support to the share price. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt79.60.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Bangkok Chain Hospital (BCH TB/BUY/Bt14.10/Target: Bt17.50) 2Q25: Reported strong earnings as expected. Update Central Pattana (CPN TB/BUY/Bt54.50/Target: Bt79.60) Favourable 2H25 outlook anchored by core business resilience. Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL TB/BUY/Bt27.00/Target: Bt33.00) Expect a gradual improvement in outlook. Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF TB/HOLD/Bt24.40/Target: Bt24.00) 2Q25 earnings in line; 3Q25 earnings momentum to soften. The Erawan ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls: Add JBM Healthcare and Lenovo to our BUY list. Take profit on CATL, Han’s Laser, KE Holdings and Longfor. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In July: Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, AKRA, ARCI, BBNI, KLBF, MTEL, and MYOR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Some Opportunities Amid A “Summer Lull”: Our July 25 Alpha Picks outperformed. Aug 25 picks: Coraza, Eco World, Gamuda, Hume Cement, IJM, Inari, RHB and Zetrix. SINGAPORE ...
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