reports
- Audrey Celia
- Willinoy Sitorus
Consumer - Tactical Rotation Lingers; Re-iterate OVERWEIGHT on Consume...
Our ground checks suggest improving business sentiment following Purbaya’s appointment, as his pro-growth and consultative stance has begun to restore optimism. Macro indicators point to firmer momentum toward the year-end, supported by typical seasonality and more accommodative fiscal measures that should reinforce consumption-led growth. We re-iterate our tactical allocation to big-cap laggards and consumer names. Top picks: JPFA, CMRY and AMRT. Highlights • Our ground check suggests that bus...
- Audrey Celia
- Hendri Effendi
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Willinoy Sitorus
Indonesia Daily - Thursday, October 30, 2025
Sector Update | Consumer Our ground checks suggest improving business sentiment following Purbaya’s appointment, as his pro-growth and consultative stance has begun to restore optimism. Macro indicators point to firmer momentum toward the year-end, supported by typical seasonality and more accommodative fiscal measures that should reinforce consumption-led growth. We re-iterate our tactical allocation to big-cap laggards and consumer names. Top picks: JPFA, CMRY and AMRT. Company Results | Bank...
- Audrey Celia
- Willinoy Sitorus
Consumer - Consumer Sector 3Q25 Results Preview
Most 3Q25 results are expected to be in line, except for ACES, which may fall short due to heightened competition. JPFA is likely to stand out, supported by higher broiler prices and continued cost efficiency. The recent proposed VAT reduction by the government provides positive sentiment. Our channel checks indicate improving consumer confidence, supported by recent pro-growth policies, with sentiment turning more constructive towards year-end. Top picks: JPFA, AMRT, and CMRY. Highlights • Mos...
- Alden Gabriel Lam
- Audrey Celia
- Benyamin Mikael
- Maskun Ramli
- Willinoy Sitorus
Indonesia Daily - Friday, October 17, 2025
Economics | Indonesia's External Debt Growth Cools As Borrowing Eases In Aug 25, Indonesia's external debt growth slowed significantly to 1.97% yoy, despite a slight monthly increase to US$431.9b. This deceleration was driven by declining public sector debt and a private sector contraction, improving key debt ratios. Looking ahead, debt growth is expected to accelerate with increased domestic spending, but will face challenges from a strong US dollar and high global bond yields, posing risks to ...
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Willinoy Sitorus
Strategy - Equity-Bond Yield Gap: A Renewed Opportunity
Indonesia’s 10-year government bond yield has fallen to 6.3% and could ease further to 6.1% by end-25, narrowing the yield gap with equities. Around 19 JCI stocks offer dividend yields above bond yields, led by SOE banks (>8%) and selected consumers and commodities (filtered by decent liquidity). However, we think HMSP and UNVR are dividend traps, while cyclical resource dividend yields carry risks and rewards that highly depend on the commodity price cycle. Top dividend picks: BBNI and AKRA.
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Willinoy Sitorus
- Audrey Celia
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Chong Lee Len
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Jonathan Koh
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Sunny Chen
- Wei Xiang Ku
- Willinoy Sitorus
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, July 28, 2025
GREATER CHINA Update Baoshan Iron & Steel (600019 CH/BUY/Rmb7.44/Target: Rmb8.20) Riding the policy wave, watching for undercurrents. Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics (300760 CH/BUY/Rmb231.84/Target: Rmb325.00) Regaining growth momentum from Q3 2025, on track for top 10 global medtech status. INDONESIA Sector Consumer 2Q25 preview: Mixed results. Results Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ/BUY/Rp4,090/Target: Rp5,...
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
MYOR MAYORA INDAH
MAPI MITRA ADIPERKASA
ERAA ERAJAYA SWASEMBADA
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
600019 BAOSHAN IRON & STEEL CO. LTD. CLASS A
MLK MALAKOFF CORP BHD
ICBP INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
300760 SHENZHEN MINDRAY BIO-MEDICAL ELECTRONICS CO. LTD. CLASS A
CTOS CTOS DIGITAL BHD
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Audrey Celia
- Willinoy Sitorus
Consumer – 2Q25 Preview: Mixed Results
Despite macroeconomic headwinds, we expect 1H25 results across the consumer sector to reflect resilient momentum in selective segments, with performance diverging by product category, pricing power, margin management and adaptability. While weak purchasing power likely weighed on mass-market demand, easing soft commodity prices may improve sentiment. We upgrade the sector to OVERWEIGHT. Top picks: KLBF, CMRY and ERAA.
- Audrey Celia
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Willinoy Sitorus
Indonesia Daily - Monday, July 28, 2025
Consumer: 2Q25 preview: Mixed results. Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ/BUY/Rp4,090/Target: Rp5,100): 2Q25: NIM likely to have bottomed, with recovery expected in 2H25. TRADERS’ CORNER Tower Bersama Infrastructure (TBIG IJ): Technical BUY Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur (ICBP IJ): Technical BUY
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) - SSSG Down In April; Growth Backed...
ACES posted a sharp SSSG decline of 14.1% in Apr 25, driven by softer consumer spending and the calendar shift in Ramadan timing. 4M25 SSSG decelerated to -2.3% (3M25: +2.2%). Despite weak monthly sales, 4M25 indicative sales grew 4.2% yoy, supported by five newly-opened stores in 4M25. We maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of Rp565 due to ACES’ undemanding valuation of 9.3x 2025F PE and a dividend yield of 6.0-7.0%.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jo Yee Ng
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
- Philip Wong
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, May 22, 2025
GREATER CHINA Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/HOLD/HK$86.10/Target: HK$91.00) 1Q25: Solid earnings beat, fuelled by AI cloud growth and monetisation visibility. XPeng Inc (9868 HK/BUY/HK$77.55/Target: HK$150.00) 1Q25: Results beat expectations. Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$150.00. INDONESIA Strategy Indonesia’s State Budget Position As Of Apr 25 Surplus returns, mom improvement in revenue collections, spen...
PTT PTT PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
ANTM PT ANEKA TAMBANG TBK
QH QUALITY HOUSES
1295 PUBLIC BANK BHD
P34 DELFI
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ICBP INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
SPSB SP SETIA BHD
FRKN FRENCKEN GROUP LTD
09888 BAIDU INC
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BRIS BANK BRISYARIAH TBK
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
09868 XPENG INC
ECOSHOP MK ECO-SHOP MARKETING BHD
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Willinoy Sitorus
Indonesia Daily - Thursday, May 22, 2025
Strategy: Indonesia’s State Budget Position As Of Apr 25: Surplus returns, mom improvement in revenue collections, spending focused on regional transfers and non-K/L spending. Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ/BUY/Rp525/Target: Rp565): SSSG down in April; growth backed by expansion and cost normalisation. TRADERS’ CORNER AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ): Technical BUY Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ): Technical BUY
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Colin Lee
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Kong Ho Meng
- Ming San Soong
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, April 22, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Supportive policy remarks by Premier Li Qiang point to further upside; upcoming Politburo meeting to be an important policy window. Results Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK/BUY/HK$49.15/Target: HK$68.00) 1Q25: Earnings up 46% yoy, in line with estimates. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$68.00. Han’s Laser (002008 CH/BUY/Rmb24.27/Target: Rmb32.20) 1Q25: Net pro...
A0M4P7 HAN'S LASER TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
V03 VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED
BN2 VALUETRONICS HOLDINGS
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
AWX AEM HOLDINGS
558 UMS HOLDINGS LIMITED
3816 MISC BHD
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
NANO NANOCO GROUP
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
FRKN FRENCKEN GROUP LTD
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
SCB SCB X PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
8AZ AZTECH GLOBAL LTD
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) - Ramadan Drives SSSG Rebound, But ...
ACES posted improved SSSG of 8.6% in Mar 25 vs -6.6% in Feb 25. However, we cut our 2025 sales and net profit estimates by 5% and 20% respectively as we lower our SSSG assumption to 1% (previously: 7%) and raise our promotion expenses by 150bp, following management’s guidance. With the new assumptions, we now expect a 1.6% net profit growth in 2025. We believe the weak growth has been priced in, as ACES is currently trading at 8.3x 2025F PE. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of Rp565.
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - Trade War Begins
Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada. Imports of oil from Canada into the US are subject to a 10% tariff, in addition to an extra 10% tariff on imports from the US, Canada retaliated by imposing a 25% tariff on imports from the US, including beverages, cosmetics and paper products worth US$20b. Mexico and China are also expected to retaliate. The biggest risk is the potential underperformance of the JCI. Our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BBTN, CMRY, KLBF, SIDO,...
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, February 4, 2025
Strategy: Trade War Begins: Our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BBTN, CMRY, KLBF, SIDO, CTRA, ACES and GOTO. We have an end-25 target of 8,200 for the JCI. TRADERS’ CORNER Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ): Technical BUY Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ): Technical BUY
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - 2024 JCI Return Analysis
The JCI delivered a 3.7% decline in 2024, underperforming the MSASJ after two previous years of outperformance. IDXENER was the top performing sector in the JCI with a 31.9% return. IDXFIN dropped 6.2% in 2024 with big banks delivering negative returns. Gains of over 100% have been observed in MLPT, SRAJ, JSPT, PTRO, PANI, CLEO and BRMS. The worst performers are SMGR, UNVR, MDKA, GGRM, TOWR, TLKM and HMSP. For 2025, our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BRIS, CMRY, KLBF, SMRA, ACES and GOTO.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
BRIS BANK BRISYARIAH TBK
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Monday, January 6, 2025
Strategy: 2024 JCI Return Analysis: Our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BRIS, CMRY, KLBF, SMRA, ACES and GOTO. We have an end-25 target of 8,200 for the JCI. TRADERS’ CORNER Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ): Technical BUY Trimegah Bangun Persada (NCKL IJ): Technical BUY
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
BRIS BANK BRISYARIAH TBK
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Stevanus Juanda
Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) - We Prefer ACES’ Valuation To That...
MDIY will list at the offering price of Rp1,650/share. This translates to a market capitalisation of US$2.9b. Margins at MDIY are higher and MDIY has earned more than 40% ROE over the past two years compared with ACES’ ROE of 15%. MDIY’s offering price translates to a 39x 2024 annualised PE compared with ACES’ 15x 2024F PE. Based on valuation, we prefer ACES. Maintain BUY. Target price: Rp1,200.
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