reports
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) - SSSG Down In April; Growth Backed...
ACES posted a sharp SSSG decline of 14.1% in Apr 25, driven by softer consumer spending and the calendar shift in Ramadan timing. 4M25 SSSG decelerated to -2.3% (3M25: +2.2%). Despite weak monthly sales, 4M25 indicative sales grew 4.2% yoy, supported by five newly-opened stores in 4M25. We maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of Rp565 due to ACES’ undemanding valuation of 9.3x 2025F PE and a dividend yield of 6.0-7.0%.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jo Yee Ng
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
- Philip Wong
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, May 22, 2025
GREATER CHINA Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/HOLD/HK$86.10/Target: HK$91.00) 1Q25: Solid earnings beat, fuelled by AI cloud growth and monetisation visibility. XPeng Inc (9868 HK/BUY/HK$77.55/Target: HK$150.00) 1Q25: Results beat expectations. Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$150.00. INDONESIA Strategy Indonesia’s State Budget Position As Of Apr 25 Surplus returns, mom improvement in revenue collections, spen...
PTT PTT PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
ANTM PT ANEKA TAMBANG TBK
QH QUALITY HOUSES
1295 PUBLIC BANK BHD
P34 DELFI
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ICBP INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
SPSB SP SETIA BHD
FRKN FRENCKEN GROUP LTD
09888 BAIDU INC
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BRIS BANK BRISYARIAH TBK
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
09868 XPENG INC
ECOSHOP MK ECO-SHOP MARKETING BHD
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Willinoy Sitorus
Indonesia Daily - Thursday, May 22, 2025
Strategy: Indonesia’s State Budget Position As Of Apr 25: Surplus returns, mom improvement in revenue collections, spending focused on regional transfers and non-K/L spending. Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ/BUY/Rp525/Target: Rp565): SSSG down in April; growth backed by expansion and cost normalisation. TRADERS’ CORNER AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ): Technical BUY Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ): Technical BUY
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Colin Lee
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Kong Ho Meng
- Ming San Soong
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, April 22, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Supportive policy remarks by Premier Li Qiang point to further upside; upcoming Politburo meeting to be an important policy window. Results Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK/BUY/HK$49.15/Target: HK$68.00) 1Q25: Earnings up 46% yoy, in line with estimates. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$68.00. Han’s Laser (002008 CH/BUY/Rmb24.27/Target: Rmb32.20) 1Q25: Net pro...
A0M4P7 HAN'S LASER TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
V03 VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED
BN2 VALUETRONICS HOLDINGS
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
AWX AEM HOLDINGS
558 UMS HOLDINGS LIMITED
3816 MISC BHD
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
NANO NANOCO GROUP
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
FRKN FRENCKEN GROUP LTD
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
SCB SCB X PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
8AZ AZTECH GLOBAL LTD
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) - Ramadan Drives SSSG Rebound, But ...
ACES posted improved SSSG of 8.6% in Mar 25 vs -6.6% in Feb 25. However, we cut our 2025 sales and net profit estimates by 5% and 20% respectively as we lower our SSSG assumption to 1% (previously: 7%) and raise our promotion expenses by 150bp, following management’s guidance. With the new assumptions, we now expect a 1.6% net profit growth in 2025. We believe the weak growth has been priced in, as ACES is currently trading at 8.3x 2025F PE. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of Rp565.
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - Trade War Begins
Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada. Imports of oil from Canada into the US are subject to a 10% tariff, in addition to an extra 10% tariff on imports from the US, Canada retaliated by imposing a 25% tariff on imports from the US, including beverages, cosmetics and paper products worth US$20b. Mexico and China are also expected to retaliate. The biggest risk is the potential underperformance of the JCI. Our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BBTN, CMRY, KLBF, SIDO,...
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, February 4, 2025
Strategy: Trade War Begins: Our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BBTN, CMRY, KLBF, SIDO, CTRA, ACES and GOTO. We have an end-25 target of 8,200 for the JCI. TRADERS’ CORNER Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ): Technical BUY Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ): Technical BUY
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - 2024 JCI Return Analysis
The JCI delivered a 3.7% decline in 2024, underperforming the MSASJ after two previous years of outperformance. IDXENER was the top performing sector in the JCI with a 31.9% return. IDXFIN dropped 6.2% in 2024 with big banks delivering negative returns. Gains of over 100% have been observed in MLPT, SRAJ, JSPT, PTRO, PANI, CLEO and BRMS. The worst performers are SMGR, UNVR, MDKA, GGRM, TOWR, TLKM and HMSP. For 2025, our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BRIS, CMRY, KLBF, SMRA, ACES and GOTO.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
BRIS BANK BRISYARIAH TBK
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Monday, January 6, 2025
Strategy: 2024 JCI Return Analysis: Our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BRIS, CMRY, KLBF, SMRA, ACES and GOTO. We have an end-25 target of 8,200 for the JCI. TRADERS’ CORNER Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ): Technical BUY Trimegah Bangun Persada (NCKL IJ): Technical BUY
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
BRIS BANK BRISYARIAH TBK
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Stevanus Juanda
Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) - We Prefer ACES’ Valuation To That...
MDIY will list at the offering price of Rp1,650/share. This translates to a market capitalisation of US$2.9b. Margins at MDIY are higher and MDIY has earned more than 40% ROE over the past two years compared with ACES’ ROE of 15%. MDIY’s offering price translates to a 39x 2024 annualised PE compared with ACES’ 15x 2024F PE. Based on valuation, we prefer ACES. Maintain BUY. Target price: Rp1,200.
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Gigi Cheuk
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Jo Yee Ng
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kate Luang
- Ken Lee
- Kong Ho Meng
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Nurul Nazira Binti Abdullah
- Stevanus Juanda
Regional Morning Notes - Friday, December 13, 2024
GREATER CHINA Strategy Small-Mid Cap Monthly: Crystal International: Eyeing Stock Connect inclusion in Mar 25. Sector Automobile: Weekly: PV sales growth accelerated to 34% yoy last week, beating estimates. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao and Desay. INDONESIA Update Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ/BUY/Rp825/Target: Rp1,200): We prefer ACES’ valuation to that of Mr DIY. MALAYSIA Results Bermaz Auto (BAUTO MK/HOLD/RM2.04/Target: RM2.10): 1HFY25: Results below expectations; lower...
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - Key Takeaways From Regional Strategy Conference
The key takeaways from our regional KL conference are: a) most investors agree that Prabowo’s programmes are positive for Indonesia; b) investors are concerned about the widening budget deficit; c) foreign investors are pleased that local fund managers are buying; d) there is interest in syariah banks, particularly BRIS; and e) investors are inquiring about ACES vs Mr DIY Indonesia. Our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BBTN, BRIS, CMRY, KLBF, SMRA, ACES and GOTO.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
BRIS BANK BRISYARIAH TBK
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, December 10, 2024
Strategy: Key Takeaways From Regional Strategy Conference: Our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BBTN, BRIS, CMRY, KLBF, SMRA, ACES and GOTO. We have an end-25 target of 8,200 for the JCI. TRADERS’ CORNER PP Persero (PTPP IJ): Technical BUY Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ): Technical BUY
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
BRIS BANK BRISYARIAH TBK
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - Focus On Beneficiaries Of Domestic Policies
Trump 2.0 is unlikely to deter Indonesia’s exports to the US as Indonesia should be able to maintain its cost competitiveness. Interest rates are likely to be reduced by 100bp in 2025 and our economist continues to foresee a stronger rupiah. For 2025, investors should focus on the beneficiaries of domestic policies, such as the automobile, banking, consumer, property and technology sectors. Our top picks are BBCA, BBNI, BMRI, BBTN, ASII, SMRA, CTRA, GOTO, CMRY, ACES, SIDO and KLBF.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Hendri Effendi
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Friday, November 29, 2024
Strategy: Focus On Beneficiaries Of Domestic Policies: Our top picks are BBCA, BBNI, BMRI, BBTN, ASII, SMRA, CTRA, GOTO, CMRY, ACES, SIDO and KLBF. We have an end-25 target of 8,200 for the JCI. TRADERS’ CORNER Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat (MIKA IJ): Technical BUY Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ): Technical BUY
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Benyamin Mikael
- Johnny Yum
- Paula Ruth
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - Focus On Beneficiaries Of Domestic Policies
Trump 2.0 is unlikely to deter Indonesia’s exports to the US as Indonesia should be able to maintain its cost competitiveness. Interest rates are likely to be reduced by 100bp in 2025 and our economist continues to foresee a stronger rupiah. For 2025, investors should focus on the beneficiaries of domestic policies, such as the automobile, banking, consumer, property and technology sectors. Our top picks are BBCA, BBNI, BMRI, BBTN, ASII, SMRA, CTRA, GOTO, CMRY, ACES, SIDO and KLBF. We have an en...
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Chong Lee Len
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Kong Ho Meng
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Malaysia Research Team
- Ming San Soong
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Notes - Thursday, November 14, 2024
GREATER CHINA Results Tencent Holdings (700 HK/BUY/HK$403.80/Target: HK$570.00): 3Q24: Solid earnings beat; mini shop and potential blockbuster as key catalysts. INDONESIA Results Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ/BUY/Rp835/Target: Rp1,200): 3Q24: NPAT up 13.7% yoy; slightly above consensus expectations. MALAYSIA Results Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Holdings (MMHE MK/BUY/RM0.44/Target: RM0.70): 1H24: Positively surprises on project cost claims. Marine segment still weakened by competi...
PTT PTT PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
BN2 VALUETRONICS HOLDINGS
5186 MALAYSIA MARINE AND HEAVY ENGINEERING HOLDINGS BHD
PLANB PLAN B MEDIA
AWX AEM HOLDINGS
Z74 SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED
HANA HANA MICROELECTRONICS PCL
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
CPALL TB CP ALL
HAPL HAP SENG PLANTATIONS HOLDINGS BHD
VST VSTECS BHD
- Stevanus Juanda
Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) - 3Q24: NPAT Up 13.7% yoy; Slightly...
ACES reported 3Q24 NPAT of Rp208b, up 13.7% yoy and 29.5% qoq. The reported 9M24 NPAT of Rp574b is slightly ahead of consensus forecasts. ACES mentioned that store expansion will be accelerated in 2025, with a focus on tier 3 cities. With regard to potential tariffs that could affect electronics and appliances, ACES is working with domestic suppliers, local assemblers or JVs with its Chinese vendors for local manufacturing. Maintain BUY with a target price of Rp1,200.
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