We are putting our coverage of the following stocks UNDER REVIEW, with immediate effect. We caution against using the forecasts, ratings and price target guidance issued previously on these stocks: Addiko Bank Alro Arion banki Bogdanka Cognor Holding DataWalk Gradus Grenevia Islandsbanki Kety TeraPlast
HEADLINES: • mBank: to book PLN 1.2bn of CHF mortgage costs in 4Q23E; 2023E earnings to break even POSITIVE • Czech Republic macro: CNB begins the easing cycle • Turkey macro: CBT hikes by 250bp to 42.5% • Georgia macro: NBG cuts the policy rate by 50bp to 9.5% • DataWalk: key takeaways from an interview with the CEO in ISBtech; sale to UEFA NEUTRAL • Conpet: 2024 transport tariffs raised NEUTRAL • Electrica, Transelectrica: 2024 tariffs approved at the recently-announced levels • Short News...
HEADLINES: • WOOD's Winter Wonderland EME Conference 2023: postcards from Prague • CEZ: postcard from Prague • Colt CZ Group SE: postcard from Prague • Eurowag: postcard from Prague • Pilulka Lekarny: postcard from Prague • Athens Exchange Group: postcard from Prague • Elbit Systems: postcard from Prague • Siauliu Bankas: postcard from Prague • Budimex: postcard from Prague • CD Projekt: postcard from Prague • Cyber_folks: postcard from Prague • Cyfrowy Polsat: postcard from Prague ...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • ADNOC Distribution: fuelled by non-fuel (stays BUY) • Allegro: 3Q23 results a notch above expectations; guidance for a strong 4Q23E in Poland POSITIVE • Benefit Systems: better-than-expected 3Q23, solid 2023-24E outlook but also higher capex guidance POSITIVE • AROBS Transilvania Software: qoq margin expansion in 3Q23 POSITIVE • Krka: 3Q results normalising, in line with our FY23E outlook NEUTRAL • DataWalk: actual 3Q23 numbers fully in line with preliminaries NEUTRAL • VIGO Photon...
HEADLINES: • Czech Republic macro: CNB begins rate cut deliberations • Komercni Banka: solid 3Q23 delivery, but not implying any major changes in medium-term outlook NEUTRAL • Raiffeisen Bank: beats 3Q23 expectations, improves guidance, but valuation still at deep discounts NEUTRAL • BRD-GSG: 3Q23 results - strong bottom line with still provision releases POSITIVE • Dino: 2-5% beat in 3Q23 NEUTRAL • HELLENiQ Energy: 3Q23 results - above the consensus, plus interim dividend of EUR 0.3/share • ...
HEADLINES: • EU macro: October sentiment positive in CEE and Turkey • mBank: 3Q23 results - key to us are the solid capital ratios and high FX mortgage portfolio coverage • Orlen: 3Q23 results review • Garanti Bank: 3Q23 results highlights NEUTRAL • Halyk Savings Bank: notes from the deep-dive session • OMV: 3Q23 results review • OMV Petrom: 3Q23 result good, but in line with expectations • RO utilities: RO state could consider selling shares in Hidroelectrica, Nuclearelectrica, Romgaz NE...
EME Equity Market – September 2023 Market performance – positive developments in Romania and Turkey, declines everywhere else. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 3.7% mom in EUR terms and 6.0% mom in USD in September. Romania took the spotlight, with the BET Index advancing 7.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Turkish ISE30 (+4.6% mom). The Polish WIG20 declined the most (-8.7% mom), followed by the Greek ASE, the Hungarian BUX and, finally, the Czech PX (-7.9%, -1.9% and -0.6% mom, respectively).
HEADLINES: • Huuuge Games: 2Q23 in line with our forecasts, slightly above consensus; sound short-term guidance NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: 2Q23 in line with preliminary figures; gross margin down 2.5ppts yoy NEUTRAL • Aegean Airlines: 2Q23 - even stronger pricing than last year, cost increases contained POSITIVE • Eurowag: 1H net revenues in line, but earnings quality below expectations NEUTRAL • Turkey macro: initial thoughts on the MTP and Simsek presentation • DataWalk: key takeaways from the 2Q2...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: don't stop me now (stays BUY) • ONE United Properties: 2Q23 - gross profit of EUR 16m, on 28% GPM, guidance reiterated NEGATIVE • Eurocash: minor miss in 2Q23 NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: 2Q23 results review - adjusted EBITDA up 8% yoy, in line with expectations NEUTRAL • DataWalk: preliminary 2Q23 results - sales down 26% yoy, to PLN 10.34m, 8% below our estimate NEGATIVE • Banca Transilvania: 2Q23 conference call takeaways • Inter Cars: more details on the capex...
HEADLINES: • Alior Bank: 2Q23E beat on COR leads to upside potential for 2023E earnings expectations POSITIVE • mBank: solid 2Q23 numbers - amid symbolic net loss, we have positive takeaways • National Bank: 2Q23 highlights - strong NIM, upgrades guidance similar to peers • Logo Yazilim: TeleSystem acquires Logo's local competitor, Mikro NEGATIVE • Dogus Otomotiv: to acquire Group A shares of Dogus REIT NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat/Wirtualna Polska: CPS audience share at 22.25%, while WP TV at 0....
EME Equity Market – June 2023 Market performance – in the mostly green month of June, Czech Index’s red performance stands out; Turkish gains eclipsed by TRY devaluation. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 3.3% mom in EUR terms and 6.0% mom in USD in June. The Polish WIG20 advanced the most (+11.1% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms), the Greek ASE Index (+4.9% mom in EUR terms) and the Romanian BET Index (with a more modest, but positive performance: +2....
HEADLINES: • 11 bit studios: new Game Pass agreement with Microsoft, list of games not yet announced POSITIVE • Colt CZ: buys Swiss ammunition producer swissAA Holding • OMV: Berling project approved in Norway • Nuclearelectrica: signs a EUR 195m EPC contract for a tritium removal facility NEUTRAL • DataWalk: obtains a purchase order from the Northern California Regional Intelligence Center POSITIVE • Orange Polska: 2Q23E preview - 1% yoy EBITDAaL growth expected (due on 25 July) • Short ne...
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
HEADLINES: • KazMunayGas: untapped potential - from oil to dividends (BUY - initiation of coverage) • HELLENiQ Energy: 1Q23 results - EBITDA beats expectations • Krka: strong 1Q23 numbers but margins should compress POSITIVE • Warsaw Stock Exchange: 1Q23 results beat expectations but margin compression worrying NEUTRAL • Dom Development: 1Q23 in line with our estimates but below consensus, some upside to our FY GPM POSITIVE • Benefit Systems: 1Q23 earnings call takeaways - greater LT market po...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: 1Q23 beats expectations materially, strong net cash position, sound trading update POSITIVE • Eurobank: 1Q23 results solid - upside risk to our FY23E forecasts POSITIVE • PKO BP: posts solid but neutral 1Q23 results, FX mortgage charges high, ROE at 15%+ NEUTRAL • STS Group: 1Q23 EBITDA up 12% yoy, in line with expectations NEUTRAL • DataWalk: actual reported 1Q23 numbers fully in line with the preliminary figures NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: to buy back its own shares...
HEADLINES: • Komercni Banka: bottom line is fine, but the P&L mix disappointed NEGATIVE • NLB Group: a very strong start to the year, delivering a firm beat to consensus POSITIVE • DataWalk: preliminary 1Q23 results - sales down 23% yoy, to PLN 3.22m, 9% below our estimate NEGATIVE • AmRest: 10% EBITDA beat in 1Q23 POSITIVE • Eurocash: 8% EBITDA beat in 1Q23 POSITIVE • Richter: 1Q23 results beat supported by FX POSITIVE • MOL 1Q23 results - Upstream EBITDA weaker than expected • BRD-GSG: solid ...
HEADLINES: • Mediterranean refiners: the morning after (Tupras stays BUY, HELLENIQ Energy and Motor Oil Hellas downgraded to HOLD) • Public Power Corporation: managing the margins (upgraded to BUY) • Raiffeisen Bank International: strong 1Q23, upgrades 2023E guidance POSITIVE • Dino: minor beat in 1Q23 results POSITIVE • Enerjisa Enerji: 1Q23 results - strong cash flow and FY guidance announced POSITIVE • Piraeus Bank: positive first read on the 1Q23 results and updated guidance POSITIVE • My...
EME Equity Market – April 2023 Market performance – in the black across all geographies, except for Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 3.4% mom in EUR terms and 4.9% mom in USD in April. The Polish WIG20 Index saw the biggest gains (+11.5% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+7.8% mom in EUR terms) and the Greek ASE Index (+2.9% mom in EUR terms). More muted performances were witnessed in the Czech PX Index and Romanian BET Index, both adding 1.7% mom in EUR terms for th...
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