Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut buoyed sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom respectively amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Ja...
Greater China Economics | Money Supply M1 growth fell to 6.2% yoy in October, short of expectations, while M2 growth eased to 8.2% yoy. New bank loans dropped sharply to Rmb0.22t, and new TSF fell to Rmb0.81t, both below forecasts. Outstanding TSF and bank loan growth moderated to 8.5% (-0.2ppt mom) and 6.5% yoy (-0.1ppt mom) respectively, with the decline led by household loans. The numbers are not encouraging. Sector Update | Automobile China’s PV retail sales basically remained flat yoy in O...
Company Update | Astra International (ASII IJ/HOLD/Rp6,375/Target: Rp6,600) Share price has rebounded on resilient earnings, clearer TSR-focused capital-return signals, and an undemanding trailing PE of about 8x. A soft 2026 recovery is expected, underpinned by steady auto, financing, and diversified non-auto earnings. Management is reviewing the portfolio and recycling capital into higher-ROE assets, including healthcare, logistics, and gold. Its mining-related subsidiary (UNTR) is pivoting fro...
Company Update | Astra International (ASII IJ/HOLD/Rp6,375/Target: Rp6,600) Share price has rebounded on resilient earnings, clearer TSR-focused capital-return signals, and an undemanding trailing PE of about 8x. A soft 2026 recovery is expected, underpinned by steady auto, financing, and diversified non-auto earnings. Management is reviewing the portfolio and recycling capital into higher-ROE assets, including healthcare, logistics, and gold. Its mining-related subsidiary (UNTR) is pivoting fro...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&C an...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls The HSI and MSCI China gained 7.1%/8.2% mom in September on Fed easing and optimism over advancements in semiconductors and AI. We remain positive in the medium term but expect near-term consolidation after the recent strong gains. The best performer of the month was Alibaba (+53.0% mom). With some rotations expected in non-tech stocks, our October calls are: add Galaxy, Jacobson, Ping An, Trip.com and WuXi Bio to BUY; SELL Meituan. ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: Add Anta, BYDE and CSCEC to our BUY list, Li Auto and OOIL to our SELL list. Take profit on Innovent, JD Logistics, Lenovo, Sino Biopharm, Tencent and TME. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In August: Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, ARCI, BBCA, BBNI, BRMS, MTEL, HRUM and NCKL. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Wake Me Up When September Ends: Our Aug 25 Alpha Picks underperformed marginally. Sep 25 picks: Alpha IVF, Hume ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls: Add JBM Healthcare and Lenovo to our BUY list. Take profit on CATL, Han’s Laser, KE Holdings and Longfor. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In July: Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, AKRA, ARCI, BBNI, KLBF, MTEL, and MYOR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Some Opportunities Amid A “Summer Lull”: Our July 25 Alpha Picks outperformed. Aug 25 picks: Coraza, Eco World, Gamuda, Hume Cement, IJM, Inari, RHB and Zetrix. SINGAPORE ...
Jun 25 4W industry wholesales weakened to 57,760 units (-4.7% mom, -22.6% yoy), marking the lowest monthly volume since the COVID-19 period (excluding Apr 25, which was seasonally low due to the post-Lebaran effect). ASII’s market share reached 51% in June (vs 54% in 6M25). On the bright side, BYD recently announced several price hikes for its models (although there are deep discounts on selected models), perhaps easing the cut-throat price war sentiment. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Update Innovent Biologics (1801 HK/BUY/HK$80.55/Target: HK$110.00) Becoming a significant player in the weight management market in China. INDONESIA Sector Automobile Weak Jun 25 sales; BYD recently increased prices. Update XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,230/Target: Rp2,600) Focusing on long-term benefits of positive synergies from the merger, upgrade to BUY. MALAYSIA Sector...
Automobile: Weak Jun 25 sales; BYD hike prices. XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,260/Target: Rp2,600): Focusing on long-term benefits of positive synergies from the merger, upgrade to BUY. TRADERS’ CORNER Bank Jago (ARTO IJ): Technical BUY Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ): Technical BUY
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Calls: Add CATL, KE Holdings, Longfor, Midea Group, Tencent and TME to our BUY list. Take profit on Prudential. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances In June: Our new Alpha Picks are ANTM, BBCA, ERAA, ICBP, MYOR, MIKA, AMRT and TLKM. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Positioning For Positive US Trade Deals: Our Jun 25 Alpha Picks outperform. Jul 25 picks: Coraza, Duopharma, Eco World, Gamuda, Hume Cement, IJM, Inari and MYEG. SINGAP...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: June Conviction Calls: Add Prudential and Sino Biopharm to our BUY list. Take profit on SHKP and Trip.com. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances In May: Good performances from most with the exception of GOTO and BUKA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Raising Emphasis On Infrastructure Plays: Our May 25 Alpha Picks outperformed with resounding success. June 25 picks: Duopharma, Eco World, Gamuda, Hume Cement, IJM, MYEG, Northeast Group. SINGAPORE S...
GREATER CHINA Results Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK/BUY/HK$4.89/Target: HK$6.20) FY25: Results in line; targets adjusted net earnings growth of 10-20% yoy in FY26. Trip.com (9961 HK/BUY/HK$505.50/Target: HK$635.00) 1Q25: Earnings beat; international tourism and AI integration investments as key catalysts. Update Tsingtao Brewery (168 HK/BUY/HK$56.45/Target: HK$66.70) Focus on sales volume and profit growth; aims to raise dividend payo...
ASII’s 1Q25 analyst meeting included considerable discussion on the future direction of the automotive business and explored the reasons behind the segment's relatively resilient margins despite weak auto sales. 1Q25 net profit was relatively in line with our 2025 estimate (24%), should we exclude the mark-to-market investments in GOTO and HEAL. We maintain HOLD with a target price of Rp5,100.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: PEV sales down wow due to holiday. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV. Internet: Expecting ample monetisation potential on promising game pipelines in 2025. Results Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$8.31/Target: HK$12.00): 1Q25: EBITDA declines 11% yoy; China’s consumer confidence and on-premise channels show no significant recovery; expects sell-in to match sell-through in 2H25. Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK/BUY/HK$3...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Calls: Add Alibaba, Innovent, Shuanghuan, Trip.com to our BUY list. Take profit on JBM Healthcare and CR Land. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Apr 25: Remove ICBP, EXCL and MIKA; add BBTN and GOTO. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Capitalising On Sentiment Turnaround: Our Apr 25 Alpha Picks underperformed. May 25 picks: Duopharma, Gamuda, IJM, IOI Properties, TIME dotCom, MYEG, Nationgate, Northeast Group and RHB Bank. SINGAPO...
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