Two Directors at Astra International bought 1,558,100 shares at between 5,900.000IDR and 6,289.100IDR. The significance rating of the trade was 83/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's dire...
Greater China Sector Update | Healthcare The HSHCI fell by 4.0%, underperforming the HSI which decreased mildly by 0.3% in 16-27 Feb 26. AI-related names such as InSilico, Xtalpi, Medlive, Ali Health, and JD Health experienced the largest fluctuation and significant declines during this period. As globalisation gains momentum, we navigate the complexities of global market dynamics and competition. Chinese healthcare companies are making significant breakthroughs and seizing a growing share of t...
Company Results | Astra International (ASII IJ/BUY/Rp6,775/Target: Rp7,800) ASII posted 4Q25 net profit of Rp8.3t (-7.4% qoq ; +3.1% yoy), which brought 2026 earnings to Rp32.8t, down 3.3% yoy, broadly in line with estimates. HEMCE net profit declined 24% yoy, while financial services and agribusiness grew 9% and 28% yoy. Strong demand for the Veloz Hybrid, positive Jan 26 4W growth and the expiry of CBU incentive are supportive of 4W sales. Maintain BUY, with an SOTP-based target price of Rp7,8...
Company Results | Astra International (ASII IJ/BUY/Rp6,775/Target: Rp7,800) ASII posted 4Q25 net profit of Rp8.3t (-7.4% qoq ; +3.1% yoy), which brought 2026 earnings to Rp32.8t, down 3.3% yoy, broadly in line with estimates. HEMCE net profit declined 24% yoy, while financial services and agribusiness grew 9% and 28% yoy. Strong demand for the Veloz Hybrid, positive Jan 26 4W growth and the expiry of CBU incentive are supportive of 4W sales. Maintain BUY, with an SOTP-based target price of Rp7,8...
Greater China Sector Update | Metals And Mining Gold is holding near US$5,000/oz, supported by geopolitical risk, sustained central bank buying and policy uncertainty, reinforcing a higher structural floor. Despite tempered rate-cut expectations, gold equities still price in lower long-term bullion assumptions, implying valuation upside amid volatility. Copper’s pullback appears cyclical, with LME inventory builds driven by Chinese New Year seasonality and a temporary import arbitrage closure. W...
Company Update | Astra International (ASII IJ/BUY/Rp6,550/Target: Rp7,800) In Jan 26, 4W wholesale sales grew 7.3% yoy, marking a rebound after two consecutive January declines in 2024 and 2025. The delay in the commencement of BYD’s Subang plant to 1H26 may divert demand, as CBU price hikes are likely following the expiry of incentives on 31 Dec 25 and delivery delays. Meanwhile, Toyota Veloz Hybrid continues to see strong demand, with 4,000 pre-bookings in Nov-Dec 25. Maintain BUY with a highe...
Economics | BI Holds Rates To Defend Rupiah As Domestic And Global Headwinds Intensify Bank Indonesia held rates at 4.75% in Feb 26 to defend the rupiah. Pressures include dividend outflows, rising imports, and a risk premium spike following MSCI warnings and a Moody's outlook downgrade. Global headwinds ‒ a strong dollar and hawkish Fed expectations ‒ compound the fragility. Although undervalued, market sentiment on the currency remains weak. We now expect only one 25bp BI rate cut in 2H26, wit...
Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebalancing Our portfolio outperformed the JCI by 10.2%. January volatility hit the JCI after MSCI flagged free float transparency and investability risks, reversing record highs into foreign-led sell-offs and a late-month correction. In response, regulators are shifting from short-term stabilisation toward structural repair, with greater emphasis on transparency and investability. The strategy pivots towards liquid and dividend-paying blu...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property CRIC data show that the top 100 developers’ contracted sales fell 24.7% yoy in Jan 26, while new-home sales in 28 major cities declined 36% yoy. Second-hand transactions in three Tier 1 cities rose 1% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT but deepening industry downturn leads to rising possibility of policy support, supporting selective exposure. CR Land remains our top pick, with P/B at 1SD below the five-year mean, and PE and yield near the five-year average....
Economics | Indonesia Headline Inflation Rises On Low-base Effect, Core Inflation Remains Stable Indonesia's headline inflation rose to 3.55% yoy in Jan 26, primarily driven by temporary base effects from last year's low electricity tariffs and high global gold prices. However, core inflation remained stable at 2.45%, and prices fell mom due to a strong food harvest. This indicates underlying demand pressures are still contained. Consequently, Bank Indonesia is expected to maintain its benchmark...
Strategy | Positive Sentiment On LQ45 Following MSCI’s freeze on index inclusions and deletions, the government plans to raise equity investment limits for pension funds and insurance companies from 8% to 20%, broadly in line with OECD practices. Investment allocation is expected to focus on LQ45 constituents. For context, the LQ45 index has underperformed the JCI by approximately 16.0% over the past year. Highlights • JCI declined by -7.2% over the past three trading days after the freeze on ...
Greater China Economics | PMI January PMI was below Bloomberg’s consensus, as the manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.2 (-0.9pt mom). The manufacturing output sub-index stayed marginally expansionary, while the new orders and new export orders sub-indices weakened. The purchase prices sub-index surged, pointing to higher cost pressure for manufacturers. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4 (-0.8pt mom), mainly driven by a sharp contraction in the construction industry index. Large enterpri...
Strategy | Positive Sentiment On LQ45 Following MSCI’s freeze on index inclusions and deletions, the government plans to raise equity investment limits for pension funds and insurance companies from 8% to 20%, broadly in line with OECD practices. Investment allocation is expected to focus on LQ45 constituents. For context, the LQ45 index has underperformed the JCI by approximately 16.0% over the past year. Company Results | Darma Henwa (DEWA IJ/BUY/Rp540/Target: Rp1,500) DEWA delivered in-line ...
Strategy | JCI Trading Halt On MSCI Announcement The JCI was halted with an intraday peak decline of 8.8% on MSCI’s free float methodology decision, led by large-cap and conglomerate stocks. On 28 Jan 26, MSCI concluded its consultation, citing concerns over shareholder transparency and possible coordinated trading. MSCI imposed an interim freeze for Feb 26, with no index additions, no upward FIF or NOS changes, and no size migration, while exclusions remain possible. Persistent issues by May 26...
Strategy | JCI Trading Halt On MSCI Announcement The JCI was halted with an intraday peak decline of 8.8% on MSCI’s free float methodology decision, led by large-cap and conglomerate stocks. On 28 Jan 26, MSCI concluded its consultation, citing concerns over shareholder transparency and possible coordinated trading. MSCI imposed an interim freeze for Feb 26, with no index additions, no upward FIF or NOS changes, and no size migration, while exclusions remain possible. Persistent issues by May 26...
Greater China Company Update | Baidu (9888 HK/BUY/HK$146.60/Target: HK$166.00) We are optimistic on Baidu as the Kunlunxin spin-off could help unlock financial value for Baidu and strengthen its AI ecosystem. Baidu announced that on 1 Jan 26, Kunlunxin applied for a listing on the HK Stock Exchange. Following the spin-off, Kunlunxin will remain a consolidated subsidiary, with Baidu retaining a controlling 59% stake. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$166.00 (US$185.00). Company ...
Company Update | Astra International (ASII IJ/BUY/Rp6,900/Target: Rp7,700) The Ministry of Industry is preparing automotive incentives that may benefit ASII, including potential VAT or PPnBM exemptions under two scenarios. Additionally, the expiry of CBU BEV incentives from 31 Dec 25 eases EV disruption and indirectly benefits ICE vehicles. Together with a clearer TSR focus, more disciplined capital allocation, and higher dividend payout expectations, we upgrade ASII to BUY with a higher SOTP-ba...
Company Update | Astra International (ASII IJ/BUY/Rp6,900/Target: Rp7,700) The Ministry of Industry is preparing automotive incentives that may benefit ASII, including potential VAT or PPnBM exemptions under two scenarios. Additionally, the expiry of CBU BEV incentives from 31 Dec 25 eases EV disruption and indirectly benefits ICE vehicles. Together with a clearer TSR focus, more disciplined capital allocation, and higher dividend payout expectations, we upgrade ASII to BUY with a higher SOTP-ba...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut buoyed sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom respectively amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Ja...
Greater China Economics | Money Supply M1 growth fell to 6.2% yoy in October, short of expectations, while M2 growth eased to 8.2% yoy. New bank loans dropped sharply to Rmb0.22t, and new TSF fell to Rmb0.81t, both below forecasts. Outstanding TSF and bank loan growth moderated to 8.5% (-0.2ppt mom) and 6.5% yoy (-0.1ppt mom) respectively, with the decline led by household loans. The numbers are not encouraging. Sector Update | Automobile China’s PV retail sales basically remained flat yoy in O...
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