Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebalancing Our portfolio outperformed the JCI by 10.2%. January volatility hit the JCI after MSCI flagged free float transparency and investability risks, reversing record highs into foreign-led sell-offs and a late-month correction. In response, regulators are shifting from short-term stabilisation toward structural repair, with greater emphasis on transparency and investability. The strategy pivots towards liquid and dividend-paying blu...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property CRIC data show that the top 100 developers’ contracted sales fell 24.7% yoy in Jan 26, while new-home sales in 28 major cities declined 36% yoy. Second-hand transactions in three Tier 1 cities rose 1% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT but deepening industry downturn leads to rising possibility of policy support, supporting selective exposure. CR Land remains our top pick, with P/B at 1SD below the five-year mean, and PE and yield near the five-year average....
Economics | Indonesia Headline Inflation Rises On Low-base Effect, Core Inflation Remains Stable Indonesia's headline inflation rose to 3.55% yoy in Jan 26, primarily driven by temporary base effects from last year's low electricity tariffs and high global gold prices. However, core inflation remained stable at 2.45%, and prices fell mom due to a strong food harvest. This indicates underlying demand pressures are still contained. Consequently, Bank Indonesia is expected to maintain its benchmark...
Strategy | Positive Sentiment On LQ45 Following MSCI’s freeze on index inclusions and deletions, the government plans to raise equity investment limits for pension funds and insurance companies from 8% to 20%, broadly in line with OECD practices. Investment allocation is expected to focus on LQ45 constituents. For context, the LQ45 index has underperformed the JCI by approximately 16.0% over the past year. Highlights • JCI declined by -7.2% over the past three trading days after the freeze on ...
Greater China Economics | PMI January PMI was below Bloomberg’s consensus, as the manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.2 (-0.9pt mom). The manufacturing output sub-index stayed marginally expansionary, while the new orders and new export orders sub-indices weakened. The purchase prices sub-index surged, pointing to higher cost pressure for manufacturers. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4 (-0.8pt mom), mainly driven by a sharp contraction in the construction industry index. Large enterpri...
Strategy | Positive Sentiment On LQ45 Following MSCI’s freeze on index inclusions and deletions, the government plans to raise equity investment limits for pension funds and insurance companies from 8% to 20%, broadly in line with OECD practices. Investment allocation is expected to focus on LQ45 constituents. For context, the LQ45 index has underperformed the JCI by approximately 16.0% over the past year. Company Results | Darma Henwa (DEWA IJ/BUY/Rp540/Target: Rp1,500) DEWA delivered in-line ...
Strategy | JCI Trading Halt On MSCI Announcement The JCI was halted with an intraday peak decline of 8.8% on MSCI’s free float methodology decision, led by large-cap and conglomerate stocks. On 28 Jan 26, MSCI concluded its consultation, citing concerns over shareholder transparency and possible coordinated trading. MSCI imposed an interim freeze for Feb 26, with no index additions, no upward FIF or NOS changes, and no size migration, while exclusions remain possible. Persistent issues by May 26...
Strategy | JCI Trading Halt On MSCI Announcement The JCI was halted with an intraday peak decline of 8.8% on MSCI’s free float methodology decision, led by large-cap and conglomerate stocks. On 28 Jan 26, MSCI concluded its consultation, citing concerns over shareholder transparency and possible coordinated trading. MSCI imposed an interim freeze for Feb 26, with no index additions, no upward FIF or NOS changes, and no size migration, while exclusions remain possible. Persistent issues by May 26...
Greater China Company Update | Baidu (9888 HK/BUY/HK$146.60/Target: HK$166.00) We are optimistic on Baidu as the Kunlunxin spin-off could help unlock financial value for Baidu and strengthen its AI ecosystem. Baidu announced that on 1 Jan 26, Kunlunxin applied for a listing on the HK Stock Exchange. Following the spin-off, Kunlunxin will remain a consolidated subsidiary, with Baidu retaining a controlling 59% stake. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$166.00 (US$185.00). Company ...
Company Update | Astra International (ASII IJ/BUY/Rp6,900/Target: Rp7,700) The Ministry of Industry is preparing automotive incentives that may benefit ASII, including potential VAT or PPnBM exemptions under two scenarios. Additionally, the expiry of CBU BEV incentives from 31 Dec 25 eases EV disruption and indirectly benefits ICE vehicles. Together with a clearer TSR focus, more disciplined capital allocation, and higher dividend payout expectations, we upgrade ASII to BUY with a higher SOTP-ba...
Company Update | Astra International (ASII IJ/BUY/Rp6,900/Target: Rp7,700) The Ministry of Industry is preparing automotive incentives that may benefit ASII, including potential VAT or PPnBM exemptions under two scenarios. Additionally, the expiry of CBU BEV incentives from 31 Dec 25 eases EV disruption and indirectly benefits ICE vehicles. Together with a clearer TSR focus, more disciplined capital allocation, and higher dividend payout expectations, we upgrade ASII to BUY with a higher SOTP-ba...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut buoyed sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom respectively amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Ja...
Greater China Economics | Money Supply M1 growth fell to 6.2% yoy in October, short of expectations, while M2 growth eased to 8.2% yoy. New bank loans dropped sharply to Rmb0.22t, and new TSF fell to Rmb0.81t, both below forecasts. Outstanding TSF and bank loan growth moderated to 8.5% (-0.2ppt mom) and 6.5% yoy (-0.1ppt mom) respectively, with the decline led by household loans. The numbers are not encouraging. Sector Update | Automobile China’s PV retail sales basically remained flat yoy in O...
Company Update | Astra International (ASII IJ/HOLD/Rp6,375/Target: Rp6,600) Share price has rebounded on resilient earnings, clearer TSR-focused capital-return signals, and an undemanding trailing PE of about 8x. A soft 2026 recovery is expected, underpinned by steady auto, financing, and diversified non-auto earnings. Management is reviewing the portfolio and recycling capital into higher-ROE assets, including healthcare, logistics, and gold. Its mining-related subsidiary (UNTR) is pivoting fro...
Company Update | Astra International (ASII IJ/HOLD/Rp6,375/Target: Rp6,600) Share price has rebounded on resilient earnings, clearer TSR-focused capital-return signals, and an undemanding trailing PE of about 8x. A soft 2026 recovery is expected, underpinned by steady auto, financing, and diversified non-auto earnings. Management is reviewing the portfolio and recycling capital into higher-ROE assets, including healthcare, logistics, and gold. Its mining-related subsidiary (UNTR) is pivoting fro...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&C an...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls The HSI and MSCI China gained 7.1%/8.2% mom in September on Fed easing and optimism over advancements in semiconductors and AI. We remain positive in the medium term but expect near-term consolidation after the recent strong gains. The best performer of the month was Alibaba (+53.0% mom). With some rotations expected in non-tech stocks, our October calls are: add Galaxy, Jacobson, Ping An, Trip.com and WuXi Bio to BUY; SELL Meituan. ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: Add Anta, BYDE and CSCEC to our BUY list, Li Auto and OOIL to our SELL list. Take profit on Innovent, JD Logistics, Lenovo, Sino Biopharm, Tencent and TME. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In August: Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, ARCI, BBCA, BBNI, BRMS, MTEL, HRUM and NCKL. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Wake Me Up When September Ends: Our Aug 25 Alpha Picks underperformed marginally. Sep 25 picks: Alpha IVF, Hume ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls: Add JBM Healthcare and Lenovo to our BUY list. Take profit on CATL, Han’s Laser, KE Holdings and Longfor. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In July: Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, AKRA, ARCI, BBNI, KLBF, MTEL, and MYOR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Some Opportunities Amid A “Summer Lull”: Our July 25 Alpha Picks outperformed. Aug 25 picks: Coraza, Eco World, Gamuda, Hume Cement, IJM, Inari, RHB and Zetrix. SINGAPORE ...
Jun 25 4W industry wholesales weakened to 57,760 units (-4.7% mom, -22.6% yoy), marking the lowest monthly volume since the COVID-19 period (excluding Apr 25, which was seasonally low due to the post-Lebaran effect). ASII’s market share reached 51% in June (vs 54% in 6M25). On the bright side, BYD recently announced several price hikes for its models (although there are deep discounts on selected models), perhaps easing the cut-throat price war sentiment. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
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