EME Equity Market – October 2024 A red October for the EME indices, only Czechia in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 6.0% in EUR terms and 8.4% in USD terms in October. The Czech PX index was the only one spared, adding 1.3% mom in EUR terms. Türkiye was battered the most, with the Turkish ISE30 declining by 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed closely by the Polish WIG20 (-6.7% mom in EUR terms). Greece fell 4.8% mom in EUR terms, while the Hungarian BUX index lost 2.7% mom i...
HEADLINES: • Erste Bank: 3Q24 results – strong NII delivery • mBank: underlying 3Q34 business delivery in line; beat on headline net profit due to tax charges NEUTRAL • ING BSK: 3Q24 results – minor miss on high credit risk charges, as corporate NPL ratio surges NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: beat in 3Q24, Biedronka at -2% lfl and stable margin erosion; price war continues POSITIVE • Komercni Banka: 3Q24 results – net profit largely in line with expectations • Medicover: 3Q24 operating numbers in l...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (7-13 October) • PKO BP: PLN 994m of CHF mortgage saga provisions in 3Q24E NEUTRAL • AmRest/Sphera Group: Wendy’s entering CEE NEGATIVE • Alior Bank: 3Q24E preview (due on 24 October) • MONETA Money Bank: 3Q24E preview (due on 24 October) • Santander Bank Polska: 3Q24E preview (due on 29 October) • Komercni Banka: 3Q24E preview (due on 31 October)
The lower supply pressure and turning interest rate cycle have helped CEE bank bonds outperform this year, particularly in the unsecured segment. The relative value metrics of CEE bank bonds remain enticing though versus European comparables, from a bank fundamental and instrument rating angle. We expect to see a further outperformance of CEE names.
The lower supply pressure and turning interest rate cycle have helped CEE bank bonds outperform this year, particularly in the unsecured segment. The relative value metrics of CEE bank bonds remain enticing though versus European comparables, from a bank fundamental and instrument rating angle. We expect to see a further outperformance of CEE names.
EME Equity Market – August 2024 A red month for the EME indices, with only the Czech PX index in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe index declined by 4.7% in EUR terms and 2.6% in USD terms in August. The Czech PX index was the only index to report a positive figure, adding 0.5% mom in EUR terms. The rest of the indices were in the red: the Turkish ISE30 index was down 11.5% mom in EUR terms, followed by Greece (-3.2% mom), Romania (-2.6% mom) and Hungary (-1.2% mom; all in EUR terms). The P...
HEADLINES: • Komercni Banka: awaiting a NII inflection point (stays BUY) • MONETA Money Bank: valuation prices in higher ROE and strong yield (stays HOLD) • Ten Square Games: 2Q24 adjusted EBITDA 16% above our forecast; TEN confirms mom bookings recovery in July POSITIVE • Wirtualna Polska: 2Q24 results review – adjusted EBITDA down 2% yoy, in line with the consensus NEGATIVE • Mo-BRUK: new tenders for ecological bombs decommissioning on the market NEUTRAL • HELLENiQ Energy: 2Q24E results previe...
We keep Komercni Banka as a BUY, and we set our updated 12M price target (PT) at CZK 959/share, 26% upside. We see the c.11% annual dividend yield, persisting over the next two years, as the key attraction, which limits the downside, at the same time, in this volatile market environment. On top of this, we see our current 2024E forecasts as being on the conservative side and yielding some upside risk, if management delivers on its 2024E guidance, especially with respect to the NII turnaround. De...
HEADLINES: • Solutions by STC: slower growth on the horizon (stays HOLD) • Wizz Air: 1Q FY25 – a miss, and FY guidance reviewed down NEGATIVE • mBank: posts solid 2Q24 results; evolution of the CHF mortgage saga a key catalyst NEUTRAL • Komercni Banka: 2Q24 results – slight miss • BRD-GSG: small miss on 2Q24 bottom line, but good dynamics in loan book development NEUTRAL • Eurobank Ergasias Services: 2Q24 highlights – in line in 2Q24, but trends indicate upside for full-year NI estimate • Euroba...
HEADLINES: • Polish IT: CVC and Filipiak family plan to announce tender for 34.81% stake in Comarch, at PLN 315.4/share POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: Hungary – budget correction phase not over • Bank Pekao: lowers guidance on cost of credit holidays extension NEUTRAL • Borouge: 2Q24E results preview (due on 31 July) NEUTRAL • Komercni Banka: 2Q24E preview (due on 1 August) • Erste Bank: 2Q24E preview (due on 2 August) • CD Projekt: 2Q24E EBITDA up 57% yoy, but down 25% qoq (due on 28 August) • ...
EME Equity Market – May 2024 Turkish equities lead, in the mostly green month of May. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.8% mom in LCU terms in May. The Turkish ISE30 index reported the strongest performance, adding 3.6% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Czech PX (+2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Hungarian BUX index and the Polish WIG20 remained broadly flat (+0.4% and +0.2% mom in EUR terms, respectively); although, in LCU terms,...
HEADLINES: • Komercni Banka: 1Q24 below market's expectations, on late-cycle provisions and revenue headwinds NEGATIVE • BRD-GSG: high level of provisions booked leads to bottom-line miss in 1Q24 NEUTRAL • Yapi Kredi: 1Q24 highlights • Czech Republic macro: MPC preparing the ground for slower rate cuts • Czech Republic macro: a sound recovery, despite stagnant exports • Wirtualna Polska: Itaka ends cooperation with Wakacje.pl NEGATIVE • Turkish automotive: ADA releases April light vehicle sales ...
HEADLINES: • Greek banks: life after the windfall (Alpha, Eurobank, NBG and Piraeus – transfer of coverage) • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Orlen: announces PLN 1.6bn of probable trading losses NEGATIVE • ING BSK: AGM approves PLN 33.35 DPS NEUTRAL • Public Power Corporation: partners with Mytilineos for 2GW solar portfolio NEUTRAL • InPost: PPF realises option to buy 10% stake • ONE United Properties: founders and others selling up to 9.5% in ABB • PKO BP: ...
HEADLINES: • Huuuge Games: 4Q23 slightly above the consensus; up to USD 70m buyback announced (14% yield) POSITIVE • KazMunayGas: 4Q23 results – weaker than expected NEGATIVE • Enea: announces significant impairment charges (PLN 2.9bn) affecting the FY23 figures NEGATIVE • MONETA Money Bank/Komercni Banka: negative impact from the drop in mortgage rates NEGATIVE • MOL: updated strategy for 2030E – conference call takeaways NEUTRAL • Sarantis: key takeaways from the Investor Day • Allegro: key ta...
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
HEADLINES: • Komercni Banka: 2023 delivery brings positive surprise on two-year dividend outlook, yield at almost 11% • mBank: 2023 marked by active portfolio at risk coverage of 100% NEUTRAL • BRD-GSG: 4Q23 results – strong results, with a 28% bottom-line beat vs. our expectations POSITIVE • Bank Pekao: hefty yield possible this year POSITIVE • Auto Partner: January sales growth recovers materially, to 22% yoy POSITIVE • Poland macro: MPC on hold • Public Power Corporation: EC proceeds with...
HEADLINES: • Pepco Group: 1Q24 revenues close to the consensus, guidance for 2ppts gross margin improvement yoy NEUTRAL • Telecom Egypt: acquires first 5G licence in Egypt NEUTRAL • CEZ: to place bid for GasNet, reportedly NEUTRAL • Komercni Banka: 4Q23E preview (due on 8 February) • ADNOC Drilling: 4Q23E preview (due on 13 February) NEUTRAL • Kruk: 4Q23E preview (due on 27 February, after the market closes) • Alior Bank: 4Q23E preview (due on 28 February) • Short News (TGN)
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Czech Republic macro: CNB begins rate cut deliberations • Komercni Banka: solid 3Q23 delivery, but not implying any major changes in medium-term outlook NEUTRAL • Raiffeisen Bank: beats 3Q23 expectations, improves guidance, but valuation still at deep discounts NEUTRAL • BRD-GSG: 3Q23 results - strong bottom line with still provision releases POSITIVE • Dino: 2-5% beat in 3Q23 NEUTRAL • HELLENiQ Energy: 3Q23 results - above the consensus, plus interim dividend of EUR 0.3/share • ...
HEADLINES: • OTP Bank: bittersweet status quo (downgraded to HOLD) • Georgia macro: impeachment vote fails • Pepco Group: Capital Market Days takeaways • Polish telecoms: 5G frequencies in Poland sold for PLN 1.92bn (update) POSITIVE • Benefit Systems: completes acquisition of two premium clubs in Warsaw for PLN 21m NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: reveals announcement trailer and details of Indika publishing project NEUTRAL • MONETA Money Bank: 3Q23E preview (due on 26 October) • Erste Bank: 3Q23...
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