HEADLINES: • Komercni Banka: 1Q24 below market's expectations, on late-cycle provisions and revenue headwinds NEGATIVE • BRD-GSG: high level of provisions booked leads to bottom-line miss in 1Q24 NEUTRAL • Yapi Kredi: 1Q24 highlights • Czech Republic macro: MPC preparing the ground for slower rate cuts • Czech Republic macro: a sound recovery, despite stagnant exports • Wirtualna Polska: Itaka ends cooperation with Wakacje.pl NEGATIVE • Turkish automotive: ADA releases April light vehicle sales ...
HEADLINES: • Greek banks: life after the windfall (Alpha, Eurobank, NBG and Piraeus – transfer of coverage) • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Orlen: announces PLN 1.6bn of probable trading losses NEGATIVE • ING BSK: AGM approves PLN 33.35 DPS NEUTRAL • Public Power Corporation: partners with Mytilineos for 2GW solar portfolio NEUTRAL • InPost: PPF realises option to buy 10% stake • ONE United Properties: founders and others selling up to 9.5% in ABB • PKO BP: ...
HEADLINES: • Huuuge Games: 4Q23 slightly above the consensus; up to USD 70m buyback announced (14% yield) POSITIVE • KazMunayGas: 4Q23 results – weaker than expected NEGATIVE • Enea: announces significant impairment charges (PLN 2.9bn) affecting the FY23 figures NEGATIVE • MONETA Money Bank/Komercni Banka: negative impact from the drop in mortgage rates NEGATIVE • MOL: updated strategy for 2030E – conference call takeaways NEUTRAL • Sarantis: key takeaways from the Investor Day • Allegro: key ta...
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
HEADLINES: • Komercni Banka: 2023 delivery brings positive surprise on two-year dividend outlook, yield at almost 11% • mBank: 2023 marked by active portfolio at risk coverage of 100% NEUTRAL • BRD-GSG: 4Q23 results – strong results, with a 28% bottom-line beat vs. our expectations POSITIVE • Bank Pekao: hefty yield possible this year POSITIVE • Auto Partner: January sales growth recovers materially, to 22% yoy POSITIVE • Poland macro: MPC on hold • Public Power Corporation: EC proceeds with...
HEADLINES: • Pepco Group: 1Q24 revenues close to the consensus, guidance for 2ppts gross margin improvement yoy NEUTRAL • Telecom Egypt: acquires first 5G licence in Egypt NEUTRAL • CEZ: to place bid for GasNet, reportedly NEUTRAL • Komercni Banka: 4Q23E preview (due on 8 February) • ADNOC Drilling: 4Q23E preview (due on 13 February) NEUTRAL • Kruk: 4Q23E preview (due on 27 February, after the market closes) • Alior Bank: 4Q23E preview (due on 28 February) • Short News (TGN)
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Czech Republic macro: CNB begins rate cut deliberations • Komercni Banka: solid 3Q23 delivery, but not implying any major changes in medium-term outlook NEUTRAL • Raiffeisen Bank: beats 3Q23 expectations, improves guidance, but valuation still at deep discounts NEUTRAL • BRD-GSG: 3Q23 results - strong bottom line with still provision releases POSITIVE • Dino: 2-5% beat in 3Q23 NEUTRAL • HELLENiQ Energy: 3Q23 results - above the consensus, plus interim dividend of EUR 0.3/share • ...
HEADLINES: • OTP Bank: bittersweet status quo (downgraded to HOLD) • Georgia macro: impeachment vote fails • Pepco Group: Capital Market Days takeaways • Polish telecoms: 5G frequencies in Poland sold for PLN 1.92bn (update) POSITIVE • Benefit Systems: completes acquisition of two premium clubs in Warsaw for PLN 21m NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: reveals announcement trailer and details of Indika publishing project NEUTRAL • MONETA Money Bank: 3Q23E preview (due on 26 October) • Erste Bank: 3Q23...
EME Equity Market – September 2023 Market performance – positive developments in Romania and Turkey, declines everywhere else. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 3.7% mom in EUR terms and 6.0% mom in USD in September. Romania took the spotlight, with the BET Index advancing 7.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Turkish ISE30 (+4.6% mom). The Polish WIG20 declined the most (-8.7% mom), followed by the Greek ASE, the Hungarian BUX and, finally, the Czech PX (-7.9%, -1.9% and -0.6% mom, respectively).
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (4-10 September) • Czech banks: hit by surprise from CNB, with a change of rules for obligatory reserves NEGATIVE • Huuuge Games: earnings call takeaways, optimistic 2H23E outlook NEUTRAL • Benefit Systems: launches review of assets owned by Calypso Fitness, may acquire five fitness clubs NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: August sales growth decelerates further, to 15% yoy NEUTRAL • VIGO Photonics: signs letter of intent on cooperation with PCO • Allegro: ...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: posts solid 2Q23 and delivers 25%+ headline ROE; trading at just 1.2x reported P/BV • Komercni Banka: solid 2Q23, beat on LLPs, rest in line, 2023E outlook seems to be well on track NEUTRAL • ING BSK: solid 2Q23 results, better on quality mix, NII in the limelight • Migros: 2Q23 results - in line operationally NEUTRAL • Wizz Air: 1Q FY24 - revenue environment remains strong, with costs in line with the consensus POSITIVE • BRD-GSG: solid bottom line, despite NIM con...
EME Equity Market – July 2023 Market performance – gains keep on rolling in all geographies, with special mention of Turkey’s stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 8.6% mom in EUR terms and 9.5% mom in USD in July. Turkey clearly outperformed its peers, gaining 18.6% mom in EUR terms. Most other geographies performed more or less at similar levels, with the Polish WIG20 in the upper part of the range, advancing 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and Czech PX indic...
HEADLINES: • Komercni Banka: safe harbour for yield seekers (stays BUY) • MONETA Money Bank: solid, but still locked, equity story (stays HOLD) • Kruk: publishes strong 2Q23 trading update • PCF Group: planning another share issue of up to 2.52m shares NEUTRAL • JSW: new coal WFT details announced • Grupa Pracuj: number of new online job ads down 3% yoy in June 2023 NEUTRAL
We have updated our 2023-24E forecasts for Komercni Banka and included the latest 2023E guidance from management. We have also rolled our model over to 2025E. Our updated 12M price target (PT) lands at CZK 837/share currently (down from CZK 913). Such a PT level still offers sufficient upside to yield a BUY rating, but we admit that Komercni Banka is not at the top of our pecking order when it comes to the CEE banking space. In part, our positive rating on Komercni is a function of our continuou...
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
HEADLINES: • Komercni Banka: bottom line is fine, but the P&L mix disappointed NEGATIVE • NLB Group: a very strong start to the year, delivering a firm beat to consensus POSITIVE • DataWalk: preliminary 1Q23 results - sales down 23% yoy, to PLN 3.22m, 9% below our estimate NEGATIVE • AmRest: 10% EBITDA beat in 1Q23 POSITIVE • Eurocash: 8% EBITDA beat in 1Q23 POSITIVE • Richter: 1Q23 results beat supported by FX POSITIVE • MOL 1Q23 results - Upstream EBITDA weaker than expected • BRD-GSG: solid ...
HEADLINES: • Eurozone macro: tweaking the GDP outlook • Yapi Kredi: 1Q23 highlights - NIM blues • PCF Group: 4Q22 EBITDA falls by 30% qoq, broadly in line with preliminary guidance NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: preliminary 1Q23 EBIT falls by 7% yoy NEGATIVE • Kazatomprom: 1Q23 update broadly in line, guidance reiterated • Kalekim: 1Q23 results - in line operationally NEUTRAL • Alkaloid: strong 1Q23, driven by exports and antibiotics POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: takeaways from the 1Q23 earnings call NEUT...
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