We think that the robust outlook for Polish economic growth should offset mid-term uncertainty on fiscal policy and political risk. We have made a slight upward revision to our forecasts for pre-tax profit (by 1% to 4%) but lowered our EPS forecasts by 21% for 2026e and 4% for 2027e. After factoring in the full impact of the new tax bill, we have adjusted our target prices but remain cautiously positive on Polish banks. We favour mBank (upgrade to Outperform) for its upbeat long-term outlook and...
HEADLINES: • Orlen: makes an offer to buy Grupa Azoty Polyolefins NEGATIVE • VIGO Photonics: 3Q25 sales up 48.5% yoy to PLN 23.3m POSITIVE • Poland macro: August balance of payments data underscores weak exports • Budimex: PLN 2.6bn bid from Budimex's consortium scored highest in the PKP PLK tender POSITIVE • PZU: the new CEO gives one of his first interviews, discussing the potential PZU–Pekao merger NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: Hard Rock Cafe joining the company’s brand portfolio POSITIVE • CEZ: AN...
HEADLINES: • Kazatomprom: soft metal still rocks (stays BUY) • Elbit Systems: strong execution at a rich valuation (stays HOLD) • MONETA Money Bank: management recommends CZK 4/share extra dividend due before the year-end POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: conditions have been met for the acquisition of Eco Point PSA shares POSITIVE • Inter Cars: September sales growth accelerates to 13% yoy POSITIVE • Rainbow Tours: winter season pre-sales 5.7% higher yoy NEUTRAL • GTC: repurchases EUR 195m of 2026 bonds • Er...
HEADLINES: • Diagnostyka: risk of the gradual loss of key customer, Luxmed NEGATIVE • PZU / Bank Pekao: potential merger continuing • Ten Square Games: 3Q25 bookings up 4.5% qoq, better than Sensor Tower's estimates POSITIVE • Polish telecoms: mobile number portability in 3Q25 NEUTRAL • GTC: prices EUR 455m bond with an 8% yield POSITIVE • Piraeus Financial Holdings: prices EUR 600m AT1 bond POSITIVE • Czech Republic macro: elections – forced cooperation should keep the economy strong • EME Macr...
EME Equity Market – September 2025 Romanian BET led in September, while Türkiye and Hungary lagged. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.1% in USD terms. The Romanian BET was the top performer, adding 3.6% in EUR terms; followed by the Czech PX (+3.2% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+1.1% mom) (all in EUR terms); while there was a muted performance from the Greek ASE (+0.6% mom in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 and the Hungarian BUX were the worst performing indices in September(...
HEADLINES: • Zabka Group: 2026-28E rollout targets raised to 1.3k stores p.a.; dividend policy announced POSITIVE • PCF Group: 2Q25 losses deeper qoq on lower revenue and material write-offs • Rainbow Tours: consolidated August sales +17.6% yoy, driven by Paralela 45 acquisition; stand-alone sales +7.9% yoy POSITIVE • Polish utilities: electricity sales tariffs for 4Q25 set at PLN 573/MWh POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: September Sensor Tower bookings estimates flat mom, improvement in core games N...
HEADLINES: • Baltic Classifieds Group: still structurally attractive (stays BUY) • mBank: PLN 426.7m of FX mortgage saga costs expected in 3Q25E NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one – taking stock of the global picture • Romania macro: an update on the budget and the economy • 11 bit studios: satisfied with Frostpunk 2 console launch, now focusing on DLCs NEUTRAL • Short News (4iG)
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: Czech Republic - strong fundamentals anchor politics • mBank: Capital Markets Day - key takeaways POSITIVE • Murapol: 2Q25 results above expectations, strong OCF and new offer slowdown POSITIVE • Hungary macro: MNB on a protracted pause • Energy: Kirkuk pipeline set for restart POSITIVE • Jumbo: 1H25 results preview (due out today, after the close) • Short News (ROE1L)
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