China’s EV sales surged 25% wow in the 39th week of 2025 but slowed to 10.5% yoy amid a high base and anti-involution efforts. Geely and XPeng outperformed, while BYD and Li Auto saw yoy sales declines. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector, with top BUYs on CATL and Geely; we downgrade Ganfeng Lithium from BUY to HOLD with an unchanged target price of HK$40.00, as the stock price has hit our target.
Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, and Korea The MSCI Emerging Markets index (local currency) and EEM-US (USD) are both trading within 4.5-month uptrends, and we remain bullish. We expect support at the uptrend, which also coincides with the 50-day MA and $50.65 horizontal support on EEM-US. While a more signigicant pullback is not our expectation, we would view any pullback to $48 support on EEM-US as a buying opportunity. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM. On page...
China’s PV sales rebounded last week, with PEV growth surging from below 5% to over 30% due to subsidies and new models. Geely and XPeng led while BYD and Li Auto lagged. Vehicle exports rose 26% yoy in August, driven by gains in the EU, Africa and the Middle East. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL (target price raised to Rmb520) and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto.
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China’s PV sales rebounded last week, with PEV growth surging from below 5% to over 30% due to subsidies and new models. Geely and XPeng led, while BYD and Li Auto lagged. Vehicle exports rose 26% yoy in August, driven by gains in the EU, Africa, and Middle East. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL (target price raised to Rmb520) and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Sector Update | Healthcare Falling interest rates are expected to significant...
This week's key highlights include insights from a China Automobile Dealer Association forum and a visit to Lynk & Co's Chengdu plant, China's historic L3 ADAS policy approval, and weekly sales updates. The market responded positively to these developments, prompting target price upgrades for Tuopu, Sanhua, Joyson Electronics and Fuyao Glass. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT for China's auto sector, with Geely and CATL as top BUYs, and BYD and Li Auto as top SELLs.
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China has launched a three-month MIIT-led campaign to curb online misconduct in the auto industry, using selfinspections and penalties to reduce misinformation and promote competition on product quality. China’s PV insurance registrations fell 30% wow due to seasonality and consumers’ wait-and-see sentiment. Lithium carbonate prices correct on the production resumption of CATL’s Jianxiawo lithium mine. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s auto sector; top...
The price war took its toll on Chinese auto companies in 2Q25, causing a margin squeeze along the supply chain. Price wars are inevitable, despite the state’s antiinvolution campaign. Large OEMs like Geely, BYD and GWM will survive the industry consolidation. For young companies, we expect XPeng, Leapmotor and Aito to thrive. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto.
GREATER CHINA Results CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK/BUY/HK$10.51/Target: HK$12.00) 1H25: Results miss; expects hoh sales recovery and two more BD deals in 2H25. Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK/BUY/HK$30.80/Target: HK$40.00) 2Q25: Net loss in line; 3Q25 turnaround on the back of lithium carbonate price recovery. Maintain BUY, target price: HK$40.00. Li Ning (2331 HK/HOLD/HK$19.70/Target: HK$18.90) 1H25: Results beat but challenges remain in 2H25; fa...
China’s yoy PV and PEV sales growth returned to positive territory (at +6.2%/+13.5%) in the 33rd week of 2025, as OEMs cut prices again. Geely’s insurance registrations spiked 21% wow during the week, beating our expectation, driven by the blockbuster new model Galaxy A7. However, BYD, Tesla China and Li Auto still posted a yoy sales decline during the week, albeit a wow rebound. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu.
China’s PEV yoy sales growth turned negative (at -0.5%) during the week. BYD and Li Auto posted a yoy sales decline. We expect EV sales to recover from September with the launch of new models and interest subsidies for auto loans. Lithium carbonate prices rebounded to >Rmb80,000/tonne due to better supply discipline. We upgrade Ganfeng Lithium from HOLD to BUY thanks to lithium price recovery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: Yoy growth of China’s PEV sales turns negative; lithium price recovers. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$18.95/Target: HK$42.00) 2Q25: Core earnings surge 93% yoy, in line; raise target price to HK$42.00. Maintain BUY. Hysan Development (14 HK/BUY/HK$15.67/Target: HK$17.84) ...
Nexteer’s 1H25 net profit came in above our estimate at US$63m (+305% yoy/+40% hoh). The earnings beat lies in margins. Gross margin increased 1.5ppt yoy/0.6ppt hoh to 11.5% in 1H25, driven by cost optimisation measures, manufacturing efficiency and restructuring. Based on the higher margins, we have increased our 2025-27 net profit forecasts from US$107m/US$125m/US$146m to US$141m/US$164m/US$193m respectively. Upgrade from HOLD to BUY. Raise target price to HK$10.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Money Supply July's M1 growth accelerated to 5.6% yoy (+1.0ppt), exceeding the 5.2% yoy consensus forecast. M2 growth rose to 8.8% yoy (+0.5ppt), surpassing the 8.3% yoy consensus forecast. However, new bank loans turned negative at -Rmb0.05t, falling well short of expectations (Rmb0.3t). New TSF also disappointed at Rmb1.16t. While outstanding TSF growth improved to 9.0% yoy (+0.1ppt), outstanding bank loans growth weakened to 6.9% yoy (-0.2ppt), suggesting weak priva...
GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply Credit demand remains weak, though money supply improved. Results Nexteer Automotive Group (1316 HK/BUY/HK$6.92/Target: HK$10.00) 1H25: Earnings beat estimates on margins. Upgrade from HOLD to BUY. Raise target price to HK$10.00 Tencent Holdings (700 HK/BUY/HK$586.00/Target: HK$736.00) 2Q25: Resilient results; unfolding AI monetisation in online games...
China’s PV insurance registrations rebounded 5.3% wow but dipped 1.9% yoy in the 31st week of 2025, marking the third consecutive week of a yoy decline, due to the stand-off between OEMs and consumers on pricing. PEV yoy sales growth slowed to below 10% (at 7.5%) again during the week. Three out of the eight OEMs on our radar posted yoy sales declines. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Downgrade Li Auto to SELL.
China’s PV insurance registrations rebounded 13% wow but dipped 1.6% yoy in the 30th week of 2025, marking the second consecutive week of yoy decline. PEV yoy sales growth remained at only 10% during the week. Four out of the eight OEMs on our radar posted yoy sales declines due to the stand-off between OEMs and consumers on pricing after the discounts came to an end at end-June. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu.
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI Rebound falters, weighed down by weaker construction and input cost pressures. Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales pressured by anti-involution initiatives. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$8.26/Target: HK$12.00) ...
China’s PV insurance registrations rebounded 7% wow but dipped 0.5% yoy in the 29th week of 2025. BYD is suffering online backlash for sponsoring CNMFT. The China government is mulling over measures to crack down on zero-mileage secondhand cars. GWM reported an upbeat 2Q25 net profit on exceptional gains. We raise our 2025 net profit forecast by 26% and keep core earnings estimates unchanged. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu.
China’s PV insurance registrations edged up 0.8% yoy and fell 8.8% wow in the 28th week of 2025 due to the roll-back of promotional discounts. Geely will privatise Zeekr via a US$2.4b cash or share-swap deal, creating short-term cash and dilution pressure but enabling long-term strategic synergies. The State Council is mulling measures to curb price war. We downgrade Ganfeng Lithium from BUY to HOLD on bigger-thanexpected 2Q25 loss. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales growth slows to 0.8% yoy. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Update Sun Hung Kai & Co (86 HK/BUY/HK$3.47/Target: HK$5.86) 1H25 Preview: Positive market sentiment improves asset valuations. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights Rukun Raharja (RAJA IJ/NOT RATED/Rp2,590) Building the future o...
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