reports
- Bob Liao
- Carl Smith
Frontier Developments (FDEV LN) - Rollercoaster year
Frontier Developments’ FY24 results to May were broadly in-line with our forecasts for revenue, adjusted EBITDA and gross cash after a comprehensive trading update issued in June. The major Warhammer RTS game release disappointed in the first half, but there was a solid performance from the back catalogue, supported by console ports of old titles and platform subscription deals, leading to a profitable second half. We update model assumptions including revenue per certain titles and edge up FY25...
- Bob Liao
- Carl Smith
Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 09 May 2024
9th May 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: E-Therapeutics (ETX.L) has left AIM. Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO.L) has left AIM. What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: 7th May: Time To ACT plc, an engineering business focused on technology for the energy transition sector, has a...
- Bob Liao
- Carl Smith
- Bob Liao
- Carl Smith
Frontier Developments: 4 directors
A director at Frontier Developments bought 145,000 shares at 113p and the significance rating of the trade was 70/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cle...
- Bob Liao
Audio Note: Frontier Developments - Expect change
In this audio note, Zeus’ Bob Liao summarises the investment case for Frontier Developments. Initial sales from the launch of Warhammer Age of Sigmar: Realms of Ruin have underperformed. Listen to the audio note below, and read the full research here.
- Bob Liao
Frontier Developments (FDEV LN) - Expect change
Initial sales from the launch of Warhammer Age of Sigmar: Realms of Ruin have underperformed. After several disappointing new releases, the company has decided to reverse its strategy to diversify into adjacent game genres. We believe the increased focus should improve Frontier Development’s efficiency but may also increase its revenue concentration and volatility. The update and strategic change lead us to lower FY24 Adj LBITDA to £13.6m from £9.0m. We now also forecast no revenue growth over t...
Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 27/11/23
27th November 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment obj...
- Bob Liao
- Carl Smith
Frontier Developments (FDEV LN) - Road to recovery
We are encouraged by Frontier Developments' announcement of an Organisational Review. We believe many video games companies inflated their expense bases during 2020 and 2021 and reduced focus on return on investment. Frontier now plans to reduce annual operating costs by up to 20% by the beginning of FY25. Frontier's Organisational Review returns the business' focus to optimising returns, leading us to forecast a recovery in adjusted EBIT margins to 5.3% in FY25 and 9.4% in FY26. We believe the ...
- Bob Liao
- Carl Smith
Frontier Developments (FDEV LN) - FY23 results
Frontier Developments’ results for the year to 31 May 2023 showed a year-on-year decline in revenue of 8.3% and wider than expected operating losses due to non-cash impairment charges and accelerated amortisation of underperforming titles. The Group has tidied its balance sheet and is taking a more prudent approach to game amortisation, which lowers our near-term underlying EBIT forecasts. The company is now refocused on selecting games that better align to its previously successful strategy, wi...
Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 13 Sep 23
13th September 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment ob...
- Bob Liao
- Carl Smith
Frontier Developments (FDEV LN) - FY23 update
We are disappointed to not see at least modest outperformance of FY23 expectations and a more upbeat outlook, given the company’s conservative approach to guidance. We lower our estimates to be in line with updated guidance but see potential for upside given the company’s compelling strategy and record of high-quality games. We believe FDEV should trade at a premium over peers.
- Liberum Research Team
- Bob Liao
Audio Note: UK video games sector - Trough valuations?
In this audio note, Zeus’ Bob Liao summarises his recently published note on the UK video games sector. The video games sector is unloved. Shares in the UK video games sector have fallen sharply and have significantly underperformed other small-cap sectors. Listen to the audio note below, and read the full research here.
- Bob Liao
UK video games sector
The video games sector is unloved. Shares in the UK video games sector have fallen sharply and have significantly underperformed other small-cap sectors. Some stocks now appear to offer deep value, with mid-single digit ex-cash PEs that are well below pre-pandemic levels. In particular, Devolver, tinyBuild, and Frontier Developments multiples have fallen well below the sector average. We see upside to Frontier Developments’ earnings estimates and Devolver’s depressed multiples. Video
- Bob Liao
Audio Note: Frontier Developments - Superior strategy
In this audio note, Zeus’ Bob Liao summarises the investment case for Frontier Developments. Frontier is a leading developer and publisher of simulation, management, strategy and non-linear games. Listen to the audio note below, and read the full research here.
- Bob Liao
- Carl Smith
Frontier Developments (FDEV LN) - Superior strategy
Frontier is a leading developer and publisher of simulation, management, strategy and non-linear games. These genres allow Frontier to continuously offer additional content, attract loyal fanbases and face less competition. Our analysis confirms Frontier’s games have higher player retention after twelve months (28% vs. average of 14% for peers) and engagement (162% higher average playtime), and that its chosen genres generate over 50% more revenue per game whilst facing half the competition of a...
- Liberum Research Team
- Liberum Research Team
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