reports
- Benoit Valleaux
- Bruno Cavalier
- Steven Gould
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/22/2024
EPS growth prospects are brighter in the US than in Europe, which is justified given the differential in the growth and inflation outlook between the two regions. However, the adjustment that has taken place on EPS in Europe is a positive factor: we are now "at the price" ahead of the cyclical recovery that is taking shape for the rest of 2024. Sector-wise, the ongoing upward revision of EPS in travel & leisure, banks and media is expected to continue apace and provide support for sec...
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
SLB.N SCHLUMBERGER NV
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
SW SODEXO SA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ALO ALSTOM SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
MONC MONCLER SPA
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
HFG HELLOFRESH SE
KBX KNORR-BREMSE AG
- Benoit Valleaux
- Bruno Cavalier
- Steven Gould
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 22/04/2024
Les perspectives de croissance des BPA sont supérieures aux Etats-Unis qu’en Europe, ce qui est justifié étant donné le différentiel de perspectives de croissance et d’inflation entre les deux zones. L’ajustement qui a eu lieu sur les BPA en Europe est toutefois un facteur positif : nous sommes désormais « au prix » avant la reprise cyclique qui se dessine pour la suite de 2024. Sectoriellement, la révision à la hausse en cours des BPA sur le Travel & Leisure, les banques et les Media...
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
SLB.N SCHLUMBERGER NV
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
SW SODEXO SA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ALO ALSTOM SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
MONC MONCLER SPA
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
HFG HELLOFRESH SE
KBX KNORR-BREMSE AG
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : Monday review – Luxury sector
>Topic of the week: what we know, what we need - At least we now know with good precision what we need in order for the sector’s perception to improve again. Reporting Q1 sales that featured 2% growth at cc for its soft luxury division, LVMH indicated that over the quarter spending from the Chinese cluster grew 10% while the local demand from Europeans, Americans and Japanese taken together was down in low single digit. To get to the reacceleration, we and the consens...
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : Monday review – Luxury sector
>Topic of the week: what we know, what we need - At least we now know with good precision what we need in order for the sector’s perception to improve again. Reporting Q1 sales that featured 2% growth at cc for its soft luxury division, LVMH indicated that over the quarter spending from the Chinese cluster grew 10% while the local demand from Europeans, Americans and Japanese taken together was down in low single digit. To get to the reacceleration, we and the consens...
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : March down in double digit leads to a -6.3% decline in Q1 for S...
>Swiss watch exports: March down -16.1% leads to a Q1 at -6.3% y-o-y (luxury category also negative over the quarter at -2.8%) - - Over March 2024, exports amounted to CHF 2,002m down 16.1% y-o-y after -3.6% in February and +3.1% in January. This is a very weak figure but was obviously impacted to a good extent by a negative working days effect. On the whole, Q1 was down -6.3% (as a reminder: Q4 2023 witnessed +4.7% growth, FY 2023 growth ended at +7.6%). The l...
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : March down in double digit leads to a -6.3% decline in Q1 for S...
>Swiss watch exports: March down -16.1% leads to a Q1 at -6.3% y-o-y (luxury category also negative over the quarter at -2.8%) - - Over March 2024, exports amounted to CHF 2,002m down 16.1% y-o-y after -3.6% in February and +3.1% in January. This is a very weak figure but was obviously impacted to a good extent by a negative working days effect. On the whole, Q1 was down -6.3% (as a reminder: Q4 2023 witnessed +4.7% growth, FY 2023 growth ended at +7.6%). The l...
- Baptiste Salaville
- Bruno Cavalier
- Jean Danjou
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 15/04/2024
The logistics market is our preferred real estate segment, where the coming growth remains undervalued. We prefer the high growth stock within this segment, CTP. We also have Outperform recommendations on Argan, Montea and VGP. We believe WDP is fully valued, though. - ...
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
SW SODEXO SA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
BC8 BECHTLE AG
ELI ELIA GROUP SA/NV
MONC MONCLER SPA
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
SAP SAP SE
- Baptiste Salaville
- Bruno Cavalier
- Jean Danjou
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/15/2024
The logistics market is our preferred real estate segment, where the coming growth remains undervalued. We prefer the high growth stock within this segment, CTP. We also have Outperform recommendations on Argan, Montea and VGP. We believe WDP is fully valued, though. - ...
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
SW SODEXO SA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
BC8 BECHTLE AG
ELI ELIA GROUP SA/NV
MONC MONCLER SPA
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
SAP SAP SE
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : Monday review – Luxury sector
>Topic of the week: no party planned this earnings season - If the most recent trends for luxury stocks are to be taken seriously, expectations related to the coming Q1 earnings season must have been seriously downgraded over the last weeks. The sector as a whole now witnesses a YTD gain below 10% and modestly above the one visible on the Stoxx 600; Hermès aside, it is trading at a discount versus pre-Covid. If a few franchises with above average brand momentum and/or...
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : Monday review – Luxury sector
>Topic of the week: no party planned this earnings season - If the most recent trends for luxury stocks are to be taken seriously, expectations related to the coming Q1 earnings season must have been seriously downgraded over the last weeks. The sector as a whole now witnesses a YTD gain below 10% and modestly above the one visible on the Stoxx 600; Hermès aside, it is trading at a discount versus pre-Covid. If a few franchises with above average brand momentum and/or...
- Ahmed Ben Salem
- Bruno Cavalier
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ALO ALSTOM SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
RY4C RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
MONC MONCLER SPA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
BP. BP P.L.C.
SHEL SHELL PLC
- Ahmed Ben Salem
- Bruno Cavalier
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ALO ALSTOM SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
RY4C RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
MONC MONCLER SPA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
BP. BP P.L.C.
SHEL SHELL PLC
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : Monday review – Luxury sector
>Topic of the week: let’s talk about prices - Above trend rises in unit prices have been a visible feature of the post-Covid strong revenue growth posted by the luxury industry at large. Historically, the annual growth of the sector runs at +8%/+10% on average with volume, price and mix contributing more or less equally but the post-Covid economic backdrop has allowed a faster pace of annual price rises: we estimate that the average price inflation ended up close to h...
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : Monday review – Luxury sector
>Topic of the week: let’s talk about prices - Above trend rises in unit prices have been a visible feature of the post-Covid strong revenue growth posted by the luxury industry at large. Historically, the annual growth of the sector runs at +8%/+10% on average with volume, price and mix contributing more or less equally but the post-Covid economic backdrop has allowed a faster pace of annual price rises: we estimate that the average price inflation ended up close to h...
- Chaima Ferrandon
- Sven Edelfelt
- Chaima Ferrandon
- Sven Edelfelt
- Jean Danjou
Richemont : Slower growth and margins under pressure but Jewellery Mai...
>Reduced growth in Q4 and margins still under pressure in H2, this scenario remains on the cards but is unsurprising - The group will present its full-year results to end-March 2024 in May. As usual, it has not commented on the trends in Q4 but limited itself to an assessment of the broadly tough macroeconomic context and particularly the demanding comps in Q4 relative to last year (Jewellery Maisons in Q4 of the year to end-March 2023 came in at +27% y-o-y). ...
- Jean Danjou
Richemont : Croissance au ralenti et marge sous pression mais Maisons ...
>Croissance réduite au T4 et marges toujours sous pression au S2, ce scénario reste d’actualité mais n’a pas de quoi surprendre - Le groupe présentera les résultats annuels de l’exercice à fin mars 2024 en mai. Comme à l’accoutumée, il ne commente pas les tendances sur le T4 mais se borne à rappeler le cadre macro dans l’ensemble plutôt compliqué et surtout les bases de comparaisons difficiles sur le T4 par rapport à l’exercice passé (Maisons Joaillères au T4 ...
- Bruno Cavalier
- Jean Danjou
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
DAI DAIMLER AG
AGS AGEAS SA/NV
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
PHNX PHOENIX GROUP HOLDINGS PLC
- Bruno Cavalier
- Jean Danjou
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
DAI DAIMLER AG
AGS AGEAS SA/NV
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
PHNX PHOENIX GROUP HOLDINGS PLC
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