Tokmanni (Buy, TP: EUR13.50) - Aisle of opportunity

We have upgraded Tokmanni to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to EUR13.5 (13.0). We believe the recent market reaction overly penalised Tokmanni, with a PEG of c0.6x offering a good entry point in one of the largest variety discounters in the Nordics. Although overall economic uncertainty has risen, we believe Tokmanni’s low exposure to cyclical demand supports sustained growth and continue to see higher margins through operational scaling. For Q1e, we are close to consensus and expect 202...

Tokmanni (Hold, TP: EUR13.00) - Fewer dollars on the bottom line

While LFL sales and traffic improved sequentially in Q4, we believe this was driven by extensive campaigns and uptake in consumables, with lower gross margins questioning the competitiveness of Tokmanni’s accretive margin range, particularly in Sweden. In our view, the broad profit guidance indicates a cautious outlook and low visibility. We have reduced our target price to EUR13 (14), having cut our 2025–2026e clean EPS by c6.5% on average, mostly on lower DollarStore gross margin projections, ...

Tokmanni (Hold, TP: EUR14.00) - Neutral view intact

We expect a slightly positive Q4 (our sales estimate is slightly below consensus, but our clean EBIT is c3.5% above), as the company’s performance should reflect modestly better trading conditions and margin expansion. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to EUR14 (12.5), following our more de-risked view of its 2025–2026e profit outlook, supported by the recently announced SPAR International licence agreement.

Tokmanni (Hold, TP: EUR11.00) - Neutral ahead of Q3

We are close to consensus Q3 clean EBIT, reflecting lower YOY profitability for Tokmanni Finland and soft demand for the group’s key categories. We continue to see downside risk to its 2024 guidance and struggle to get excited about Tokmanni after a series of quarters with negative LFL traffic KPIs (including DollarStore) and underperformance versus the market. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to EUR11 (12), after small estimate cuts.

Tokmanni Group Corporation: 1 director

A director at Tokmanni Group Corporation bought 7,000 shares at 10.557EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 71/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two y...

Tokmanni (Hold, TP: EUR12.00) - Shrinking customer base

With headline numbers pre-released, the full Q2 results confirmed the soft underlying performance as well as a continued marked decline in the LFL customer visits, which we only partly attribute to weak spring sales. We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) and cut our target price to EUR12 (15), having lowered our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c6.5% on average.

Tokmanni (Buy, TP: EUR15.00) - Profit warning

Tokmanni cut its 2024 sales and earnings guidance due to a late spring season, weak consumer trends, a negative VAT effect and higher freight costs. We reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to EUR15 (16), after c9% cuts, on average, to our 2024–2026e clean EPS. We still find the stock attractive at a 2025e P/E of c10x, on c13% 2024–2026e clean EPS growth.

Tokmanni (Buy, TP: EUR16.00) - Several hiccups

Following weaker-than-expected underlying Q1 performance, including sluggish key LFL KPIs and a higher fixed cost base, we have cut our 2024–2026e EPS by c6% on average. We reiterate our BUY but have reduced our target price to EUR16 (17).

Tokmanni (Buy, TP: EUR17.00) - Q1e hurt by external setbacks

We are just shy of consensus Q1e clean EBIT, reflecting demand challenged by several external setbacks. However, we continue to view Tokmanni as an attractive countercyclical case amid weak consumer trends, with an unduly low valuation despite a sharp step-up in its growth profile since last year’s acquisition of DollarStore. We reiterate our BUY and EUR17 target price.

Tokmanni (Buy, TP: EUR17.00) - Q4 fine overall

We looked for slightly more LFL growth (sales and visits), but DollarStore profitability was very strong. Financing costs also burdened EPS more than we expected. With an attractive valuation and optimistic 2024 demand outlook, we reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to EUR17.0 (17.5).

Tokmanni Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates to reflect the company’s pre-announced 2023 figures (full results due on 22 March at 07:00 CET). We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. However, we have nudged up our target price to EUR17.5 (EUR17.0), and believe underlying market trends continue to favour discounters.

Tokmanni (Buy, TP: EUR17.00) - CMD not to be discounted

We expect Tokmanni to provide an update to its medium-term strategy and financial targets at the February CMD – we estimate EUR2bn in sales and cEUR175m in clean EBIT. We expect healthy growth for 2024, supported structurally by lacklustre consumer sentiment, and the upcoming CMD to be the next catalysts for the stock. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to EUR17 (15).

Tokmanni (Buy, TP: EUR15.00) - Encouraging synergy and near-term tradi...

Despite the c3% clean EBIT miss on lower growth and higher costs in Q3, Tokmanni signalled confidence about reaching its target of over EUR15m in annual net synergies from the DollarStore acquisition, and that the Christmas season has begun “very well” for both businesses, suggesting a stronger Q4. We reiterate our BUY and EUR15 target price.

Tokmanni (Buy, TP: EUR15.00) - Market advantage

In the upcoming Q3 results (due on 17 November), our focus will be on profitability and the outlook, as well as on the recently acquired DollarStore’s performance. We expect the Q3 figures to show healthy growth in a lacklustre market. We reiterate our BUY and EUR15 target price on an attractive valuation.

Northern Lights

Tokmanni (Buy, TP: EUR15.00) - Set for strong growth

The Q2 results were close to consensus and our forecasts overall, but the gross margin impressed. We remain positive on the strong value-creation potential for the new combined entity and have raised our 2024–2025e clean EPS by c11–14%, having included DollarStore in our estimates (only minor changes to our stand-alone Tokmanni forecasts). We reiterate our BUY and EUR15 target price.

Tokmanni (Buy, TP: EUR15.00) - A well-spent dollar

We consider the agreed acquisition of DollarStore a good strategic fit, with the potential to take Tokmanni to the next level. We believe it would be earnings-enhancing from day one and the targeted synergies could be conservative. We see an attractive combined entity by 2026–2028e, with twice the earnings capacity than Tokmanni alone. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to EUR15 (12.5). International expansion deal. Tokmanni has agreed to acquire 100% of the shares in St...

Northern Lights

Tokmanni - Initiation of coverage - Hold off for a better discount

We initiate coverage of Finnish discount retailer Tokmanni with a HOLD and EUR12.5 target price. In our view, the benefits of the company’s strong position in a structurally growing market alongside deflationary tailwinds and a robust 2023–2025e dividend yield of c7% are overshadowed by challenging short-term prospects. Overall, we consider the current valuation fair.

Increased risk weighs on TOKMANNI GROUP, penalising its rating down t...

The independent financial analyst theScreener just lowered the general evaluation of TOKMANNI GROUP (FI), active in the Broadline Retailers industry. As regards its fundamental valuation, the title still shows 1 out of 4 possible stars. Its market behaviour, however, has slightly deteriorated and will be qualified as moderately risky moving forward. theScreener considers that these new qualifications justify an overall rating downgrade to Neutral. As of the analysis date October 29, 2021, the cl...