Greater China Initiate Coverage | Pony AI Inc (PONY US/BUY/US$12.18/Target: US$26.10) Pony AI is a global leader in autonomous mobility, leveraging its virtual driver technology to enable the mass production and deployment of autonomous vehicles across diverse regions. We expect revenue to grow at a three-year CAGR of 65% from 2024-27, net loss to narrow, and bottom line to turn around in 2028, driven by large-scale commercialisation. Initiate coverage with BUY and a target price of US$26.10...
Company Results | Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC/BUY/Bt5.70/Target: Bt7.00 SPRC reported a strong rebound in 3Q25 net profit, delivering net profit of Bt1.58b and core profit of Bt1.11b, beating our estimates on a higher run rate, stronger GRM, better commercial margin, and lower opex. GRM rose to US$5.40/bbl with crude run at 96%. Management has sharply reduced the turnaround cost for 2026, and also cut the number of shutdown days to 24, which is earnings-accretive. The outlook remains positive ...
Top Stories Company Results | AP (Thailand) (AP TB/BUY/Bt7.90/Target: Bt9.30) AP posted a net profit of Bt1.15b in 3Q25 (-20% yoy, +15% qoq), in line with our estimate. The qoq improvement was underpinned by a solid performance in the low-rise segment, improved gross margin and higher equity income. AP revised down its 2025 launch plan from Bt65.0b to Bt59.6b. However, we are optimistic about the presales and earnings outlook for 4Q25. We still like AP as the market leader with a more aggressi...
A director at Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited maiden bought 190,000 shares at 4.960THB and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's d...
Highlights • Singapore’s GRM averaged only $4.0/bbl in 3Q25 qtd due to weaker gasoline cracks. However, heavy maintenance and seasonal heating demand in winter should give another short-term boost to margins in 4Q25, according to Wood Mackenzie. • We expect SPRC’s slime core profit to be down roughly 52% qoq to Bt300m in 3Q25 on weaker margin and higher opex to prepare for maintenance in 1Q26. • However, we believe the recent share price weakness has already priced in near-term negatives, cr...
Top Stories Company Update | Betagro (BTG TB/HOLD/Bt18.30/Target: Bt18.50) We have a positive outlook on BTG after the analyst meeting. BTG expects swine prices to rise in 4Q25 due to seasonality, supply control and consumption-stimulus policies. We expect to see slightly positive sentiment since farm-gate pork prices could stabilise. However, we remain cautious on livestock prices due to volatility. Maintain HOLD, with a target price of Bt18.50. Company Update | Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC...
Greater China Strategy | China’s 15th Five-Year Plan: Unlocking Domestic Consumption The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) targets 4.5-5% yoy GDP growth toward 2035 modernisation. Priorities include boosting services-led consumption via subsidies, tax reforms, and consumer credit; advancing innovation in semiconductors, EVs, robotics, and biotech; and extending anti-involution reforms to consolidate sectors with excess capacity. Green transition shifts focus to grid efficiency, storage, and nu...
SPRC reported a 2Q25 net loss of Bt812m, driven by a Bt1.7b inventory loss partly offset by Bt248m forex gains. Excluding non-recurring items, core profit was Bt622m, up 61% qoq and turning from a core loss of Bt387m in 2Q24, in line with our expectation. Following around an 11% share price decline yesterday, we see an attractive entry point into SPRC given improving medium-term fundamentals and limited downside risk. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt6.50.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Amata Corporation (AMATA TB/BUY/Bt16.50/Target: Bt25.00) 2Q25: Earnings below expectations. AP Thailand (AP TB/BUY/Bt7.65/Target: Bt9.60) 2Q25: Earnings in line, optimistic 3Q25 outlook. Bangkok Commercial Asset Management (BAM TB/BUY/Bt8.40/Target: Bt10.00) 2Q25: Results in line with consensus; highest bottom line in the past 22 quarters. Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB/BUY...
SPRC is poised to deliver a strong 2Q25 performance, driven by healthy operational metrics and positive refinery market outlook. We project a core net profit of Bt821m, up 112% qoq supported by a robust crude run rate of 93% and a higher GRM of US$6.0/bbl. With a valuation of just 0.5x P/BV, well below its historical, SPRC remains an attractive pick for yield-oriented investors (6.6% dividend yield). Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt7.00.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Market Strategy: 2H25: A big beautiful deal? INDONESIA Update GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ/BUY/Rp59/Target: Rp78): EBITDA resilience back in focus as M&A noise fades. MALAYSIA Sector REITs: We maintain MARKET WEIGHT as the positives appear largely priced into current share prices, with limited near-term upside potential. Top picks: PREIT and CLMT. SINGAPORE Update CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT SP/BUY/S$2.15/Target: S$2.42): Organic growth from AEIs and t...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Construction 1Q25 results preview: CK and STECON set to rebound. Results IRPC (IRPC TB/BUY/Bt0.94/Target: Bt1.10) 1Q25: Net loss deepens on lower margins, but share price already reflects bad news. LPN Development (LPN TB/SELL/Bt2.06/Target: Bt1.50) 1Q25: Results slightly beat expectation, but recovery remains...
SPRC is on track for a solid performance rebound in 1Q25, driven by a higher refinery run rate of 99% and a recovery in benchmark GRM. We expect the company to report a core profit of Bt402m in 1Q25, up 85% qoq. SPRC's valuation remains undemanding, trading at just 0.4x P/BV − below its COVID-19 levels. The company is expected to deliver a strong dividend yield of 7.9% in 2025, making it an appealing option for yield-focused investors. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt9.00.
GREATER CHINA Results CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$25.85/Target: HK$32.40) 2024: Results in line; positive outlook for property sales in 2025. CR Mixc (1209 HK/BUY/HK$34.50/Target: HK$38.70) 2024: Results beat with 100% payout ratio; pursuing high-quality growth. Giordano International (709 HK/BUY/HK$1.52/Target: HK$2.14) 2024: 2H24 revenue rebound; 3-5% revenue growth and improving net margin in 2025. Haidilao Internatio...
SPRC reported a 4Q24 net profit of Bt162m, reversing from a loss of Bt2.2b in 3Q24 and loss of Bt4.4b in 4Q23. Excluding one-off items, core profit was Bt217m (3Q24: Bt196 gain; 4Q23: Bt422m loss). Both core and net profit are in line with our estimates. SPRC’s 2024 core profit totalled Bt2.2b, up 67% yoy. We believe its operating performance will continue to improve in 2025 while its valuation is undemanding. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt9.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Berli Jucker (BJC TB/BUY/Bt22.40/Target: Bt28.00) 4Q24: Results in line; core earnings improvement in 2025 after two-year drop. Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC TB/BUY/Bt5.35/Target: Bt9.00) 4Q24: Results in line; good time to accumulate. Update Bangkok Chain Hospital (BCH TB/BUY/Bt15.00/Target: Bt20.00) Weak earnings in 4Q24 due to the last AdjRW>2 rate cut. Stecon Group (STECON TB/BUY/Bt3.96/Target: Bt5.65) Expect net loss in 4Q24; remain...
GREATER CHINA Sector Dairy: Retail demand remains weak; price recovery and healthier inventories to drive shipment normalisation. Healthcare: Outperformers empowered by AI revolution. INDONESIA Update Champ Resto Indonesia (ENAK IJ/BUY/Rp585/Target: Rp740): 2025 revenue to grow 16% yoy; more conservative on 4Q24 performance. Maintain BUY. MALAYSIA Results Duopharma Biotech (DBB MK/BUY/RM1.28/Target: RM1.39): 4Q24: Largely delivers on earnings. Public sector sales anchor growth while margins im...
We expect SPRC to report its 4Q24 results on 19 Feb 25. We anticipate core profit surging 139% yoy to Bt469m in 4Q24. This would bring its 2024 core profit up 55% to Bt2.4b. We foresee opportunities to accumulate the stock as share price has tumbled 16% ytd. We believe its operating performance will continue to improve from 2025 onwards. SPRC’s share price is trading at 0.6x of 2025F P/B (-2SD). Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt9.00.
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