SPRC is poised to deliver a strong 2Q25 performance, driven by healthy operational metrics and positive refinery market outlook. We project a core net profit of Bt821m, up 112% qoq supported by a robust crude run rate of 93% and a higher GRM of US$6.0/bbl. With a valuation of just 0.5x P/BV, well below its historical, SPRC remains an attractive pick for yield-oriented investors (6.6% dividend yield). Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt7.00.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Market Strategy: 2H25: A big beautiful deal? INDONESIA Update GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ/BUY/Rp59/Target: Rp78): EBITDA resilience back in focus as M&A noise fades. MALAYSIA Sector REITs: We maintain MARKET WEIGHT as the positives appear largely priced into current share prices, with limited near-term upside potential. Top picks: PREIT and CLMT. SINGAPORE Update CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT SP/BUY/S$2.15/Target: S$2.42): Organic growth from AEIs and t...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Construction 1Q25 results preview: CK and STECON set to rebound. Results IRPC (IRPC TB/BUY/Bt0.94/Target: Bt1.10) 1Q25: Net loss deepens on lower margins, but share price already reflects bad news. LPN Development (LPN TB/SELL/Bt2.06/Target: Bt1.50) 1Q25: Results slightly beat expectation, but recovery remains...
SPRC is on track for a solid performance rebound in 1Q25, driven by a higher refinery run rate of 99% and a recovery in benchmark GRM. We expect the company to report a core profit of Bt402m in 1Q25, up 85% qoq. SPRC's valuation remains undemanding, trading at just 0.4x P/BV − below its COVID-19 levels. The company is expected to deliver a strong dividend yield of 7.9% in 2025, making it an appealing option for yield-focused investors. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt9.00.
GREATER CHINA Results CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$25.85/Target: HK$32.40) 2024: Results in line; positive outlook for property sales in 2025. CR Mixc (1209 HK/BUY/HK$34.50/Target: HK$38.70) 2024: Results beat with 100% payout ratio; pursuing high-quality growth. Giordano International (709 HK/BUY/HK$1.52/Target: HK$2.14) 2024: 2H24 revenue rebound; 3-5% revenue growth and improving net margin in 2025. Haidilao Internatio...
SPRC reported a 4Q24 net profit of Bt162m, reversing from a loss of Bt2.2b in 3Q24 and loss of Bt4.4b in 4Q23. Excluding one-off items, core profit was Bt217m (3Q24: Bt196 gain; 4Q23: Bt422m loss). Both core and net profit are in line with our estimates. SPRC’s 2024 core profit totalled Bt2.2b, up 67% yoy. We believe its operating performance will continue to improve in 2025 while its valuation is undemanding. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt9.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Berli Jucker (BJC TB/BUY/Bt22.40/Target: Bt28.00) 4Q24: Results in line; core earnings improvement in 2025 after two-year drop. Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC TB/BUY/Bt5.35/Target: Bt9.00) 4Q24: Results in line; good time to accumulate. Update Bangkok Chain Hospital (BCH TB/BUY/Bt15.00/Target: Bt20.00) Weak earnings in 4Q24 due to the last AdjRW>2 rate cut. Stecon Group (STECON TB/BUY/Bt3.96/Target: Bt5.65) Expect net loss in 4Q24; remain...
GREATER CHINA Sector Dairy: Retail demand remains weak; price recovery and healthier inventories to drive shipment normalisation. Healthcare: Outperformers empowered by AI revolution. INDONESIA Update Champ Resto Indonesia (ENAK IJ/BUY/Rp585/Target: Rp740): 2025 revenue to grow 16% yoy; more conservative on 4Q24 performance. Maintain BUY. MALAYSIA Results Duopharma Biotech (DBB MK/BUY/RM1.28/Target: RM1.39): 4Q24: Largely delivers on earnings. Public sector sales anchor growth while margins im...
We expect SPRC to report its 4Q24 results on 19 Feb 25. We anticipate core profit surging 139% yoy to Bt469m in 4Q24. This would bring its 2024 core profit up 55% to Bt2.4b. We foresee opportunities to accumulate the stock as share price has tumbled 16% ytd. We believe its operating performance will continue to improve from 2025 onwards. SPRC’s share price is trading at 0.6x of 2025F P/B (-2SD). Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt9.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update IRPC (IRPC TB/BUY/Bt1.18/Target: Bt1.50) 4Q24 results preview: Expecting a net loss again. Land and Houses (LH TB/HOLD/Bt4.90/Target: Bt5.40) Challenging targets for 2025 amid headwinds. Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC TB/BUY/Bt5.65/Target: Bt9.00) 4Q24 results preview: Positive earnings guidance with cheap valuation. The Erawan Group (ERW TB/BUY/Bt3.28/Target: Bt4.60) 4Q24 results preview: Expect an outstanding quarter
GREATER CHINA Strategy China Property And China Property Management: Property market marginally cools down before CNY; 2024 earnings preview on COLI/CR Land/COPH. Update Shenzhou International Group Holdings (2313 HK/BUY/HK$57.65 /Target: HK$96.30): Faster-than-expected revenue growth in 2H24 with milder margin expansion. Sunny Optical (2382 HK/BUY/HK$69.85/Target: HK$85.00): Smartphone and automobile businesses to support growth in 2025. Maintain BUY. INDONESIA Update XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales up wow; NDRC indicates support for ICE-cars. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao Glass and Desay SV. IT Hardware Blackwell production ramp accelerating; brace for another year of robust growth. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/HOLD/HK$83.85/Target: HK$90.00) ...
Like its peers, SPRC posted a 3Q24 net loss of Bt2.2b. Excluding one-off items, SPRC’s core profit was Bt196m (3Q23: Bt1.5b gain; 2Q24: Bt387m loss), aligning with our forecast. Core profit for 9M24 totalled Bt2.0b, representing 82% of our full-year projection. We believe its operating performance will continue to improve from 4Q24 onwards. SPRC’s valuation is undemanding, and the recent share price correction seems overdone. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt9.50.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Amata Corporation (AMATA TB/BUY/Bt23.50/Target: Bt35.00) 3Q24: Net income missed expectations but still skyrocketed yoy and qoq. Bangkok Chain Hospital (BCH TB/BUY/Bt16.10/Target: Bt20.00) 3Q24: Mild growth. Central Pattana (CPN TB/BUY/Bt60.00/Target: Bt84.00) 3Q24: Results in line; well-positioned to close 2024 with a new record high. Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL TB/SELL/Bt33.00/Target: Bt47.00) 3Q24: Better-than-expect...
Strategy The First Policy Rate Cut Maintain a positive view on the SET index, with finance, retail, food, and utilities benefitting the most. Top picks are BGRIM, CK, CPALL, MTC, RATCH, and TFG. Sector Electronics Core profit should drop qoq due to lower GPM from forex impact. Update Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC TB/BUY/Bt7.05/Target: Bt9.50) Weak 3Q24 earnings guidance due to significant stock loss.
SPRC will announce its 3Q24 results on 13 Nov 24. We expect SPRC to report a significant net loss of Bt1.7b in 3Q24 due to a substantial stock loss. However, we foresee opportunities to accumulate the stock. We believe its operating performance will continue to improve from 4Q24 onwards backed by seasonality with an absence of ship-to-ship cost in 2025. SPRC’s valuation is undemanding and the recent share price correction seems overdone. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt9.50
GREATER CHINA Strategy Hong Kong Developers And Hong Kong Landlords: Takeaways of 2024 Hong Kong Policy Address. INDONESIA Strategy New Cabinet Members For 2024-29: Our top picks: ASII, NCKL, BBNI, BBTN, BSDE, CTRA, BBYB, SIDO, CMRY, and ACES. We have an end-24 target of 8,000 for the JCI. MALAYSIA Update British American Tobacco (ROTH MK/HOLD/RM7.50/Target: RM6.93): Cloudy outlook amid downtrading and regulatory navigation. SP Setia (SPSB MK/BUY/RM1.31/Target: RM1.95): Battersea worries fade:...
SPRC’s 2Q24 net profit was Bt346m, down 90% qoq but reversing from 2023’s loss of Bt2.0b. Excluding one-off items, SPRC’s core loss was Bt387m (2Q23: loss of Bt575m; 1Q24: profit Bt2.2b), below our estimate. We believe SPRC’s earnings will see a significant growth in 2H24 on margin improvement without extra cost from ship-to-ship activity. Upgrade to BUY. Target price: Bt9.50.
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