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Arsit Pamaranont
  • Arsit Pamaranont

Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC TB) - 2Q25 Preview: Short-Term Core Earn...

SPRC is poised to deliver a strong 2Q25 performance, driven by healthy operational metrics and positive refinery market outlook. We project a core net profit of Bt821m, up 112% qoq supported by a robust crude run rate of 93% and a higher GRM of US$6.0/bbl. With a valuation of just 0.5x P/BV, well below its historical, SPRC remains an attractive pick for yield-oriented investors (6.6% dividend yield). Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt7.00.

Arsit Pamaranont
  • Arsit Pamaranont

Thailand Daily - Thursday, June 26, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC TB/BUY/Bt5.35/Target: Bt7.00) 2Q25 preview: Short-term core earnings boost from higher margins.

Arsit Pamaranont ... (+6)
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Tham Mun Hon
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, June 26, 2025

GREATER CHINA Strategy Market Strategy: 2H25: A big beautiful deal? INDONESIA Update GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ/BUY/Rp59/Target: Rp78): EBITDA resilience back in focus as M&A noise fades. MALAYSIA Sector REITs: We maintain MARKET WEIGHT as the positives appear largely priced into current share prices, with limited near-term upside potential. Top picks: PREIT and CLMT. SINGAPORE Update CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT SP/BUY/S$2.15/Target: S$2.42): Organic growth from AEIs and t...

Arsit Pamaranont ... (+4)
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Kasemsun Koonnara
  • Thanawat Thangchadakorn

Thailand Daily - Friday, May 09, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Construction 1Q25 results preview: CK and STECON set to rebound. Results IRPC (IRPC TB/BUY/Bt0.94/Target: Bt1.10) 1Q25: Net loss deepens on lower margins, but share price already reflects bad news. LPN Development (LPN TB/SELL/Bt2.06/Target: Bt1.50) 1Q25: Results slightly beat expectation, but recovery remains...

Arsit Pamaranont
  • Arsit Pamaranont

Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC TB) - 1Q25 Preview: Expect Earnings Reco...

SPRC is on track for a solid performance rebound in 1Q25, driven by a higher refinery run rate of 99% and a recovery in benchmark GRM. We expect the company to report a core profit of Bt402m in 1Q25, up 85% qoq. SPRC's valuation remains undemanding, trading at just 0.4x P/BV − below its COVID-19 levels. The company is expected to deliver a strong dividend yield of 7.9% in 2025, making it an appealing option for yield-focused investors. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt9.00.

Arsit Pamaranont ... (+2)
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Kampon Akaravarinchai

Thailand Daily - Thursday, March 27, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update I-TAIL Corporation (ITC TB/BUY/Bt14.90/Target: Bt20.00) Foresee unexciting earnings momentum for 1Q25. Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC TB/BUY/Bt5.70/Target: Bt9.00) 1Q25 preview: Expect earnings recovery; driven by strong run rate.

Arsit Pamaranont ... (+18)
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Damon Shen
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Gigi Cheuk
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • Jack Goh Tooan Orng
  • Jack Lai Yuan Khai
  • Jieqi Liu
  • John Cheong Ming Chern
  • Kampon Akaravarinchai
  • Kate Luang
  • Philip Wong
  • Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Sunny Chen

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, March 27, 2025

GREATER CHINA Results CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$25.85/Target: HK$32.40) 2024: Results in line; positive outlook for property sales in 2025. CR Mixc (1209 HK/BUY/HK$34.50/Target: HK$38.70) 2024: Results beat with 100% payout ratio; pursuing high-quality growth. Giordano International (709 HK/BUY/HK$1.52/Target: HK$2.14) 2024: 2H24 revenue rebound; 3-5% revenue growth and improving net margin in 2025. Haidilao Internatio...

Arsit Pamaranont
  • Arsit Pamaranont

Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC TB) - 4Q24: Results In Line; Good Time T...

SPRC reported a 4Q24 net profit of Bt162m, reversing from a loss of Bt2.2b in 3Q24 and loss of Bt4.4b in 4Q23. Excluding one-off items, core profit was Bt217m (3Q24: Bt196 gain; 4Q23: Bt422m loss). Both core and net profit are in line with our estimates. SPRC’s 2024 core profit totalled Bt2.2b, up 67% yoy. We believe its operating performance will continue to improve in 2025 while its valuation is undemanding. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt9.00.

Arsit Pamaranont ... (+4)
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Kampon Akaravarinchai
  • Kasemsun Koonnara

Thailand Daily - Thursday, February 20, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Berli Jucker (BJC TB/BUY/Bt22.40/Target: Bt28.00) 4Q24: Results in line; core earnings improvement in 2025 after two-year drop. Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC TB/BUY/Bt5.35/Target: Bt9.00) 4Q24: Results in line; good time to accumulate. Update Bangkok Chain Hospital (BCH TB/BUY/Bt15.00/Target: Bt20.00) Weak earnings in 4Q24 due to the last AdjRW>2 rate cut. Stecon Group (STECON TB/BUY/Bt3.96/Target: Bt5.65) Expect net loss in 4Q24; remain...

Arsit Pamaranont ... (+17)
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • John Cheong Ming Chern
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Kampon Akaravarinchai
  • Kasemsun Koonnara
  • Kong Ho Meng
  • Llelleythan Tan Tan
  • Paula Ruth
  • Philip Wong
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Sunny Chen

Regional Morning Notes - Thursday, February 20, 2025

GREATER CHINA Sector Dairy: Retail demand remains weak; price recovery and healthier inventories to drive shipment normalisation. Healthcare: Outperformers empowered by AI revolution. INDONESIA Update Champ Resto Indonesia (ENAK IJ/BUY/Rp585/Target: Rp740): 2025 revenue to grow 16% yoy; more conservative on 4Q24 performance. Maintain BUY. MALAYSIA Results Duopharma Biotech (DBB MK/BUY/RM1.28/Target: RM1.39): 4Q24: Largely delivers on earnings. Public sector sales anchor growth while margins im...

Arsit Pamaranont
  • Arsit Pamaranont

Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC TB) - 4Q24 Results Preview: Positive Ea...

We expect SPRC to report its 4Q24 results on 19 Feb 25. We anticipate core profit surging 139% yoy to Bt469m in 4Q24. This would bring its 2024 core profit up 55% to Bt2.4b. We foresee opportunities to accumulate the stock as share price has tumbled 16% ytd. We believe its operating performance will continue to improve from 2025 onwards. SPRC’s share price is trading at 0.6x of 2025F P/B (-2SD). Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt9.00.

Arsit Pamaranont ... (+3)
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Kasemsun Koonnara

Thailand Daily - Thursday, January 23, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update IRPC (IRPC TB/BUY/Bt1.18/Target: Bt1.50) 4Q24 results preview: Expecting a net loss again. Land and Houses (LH TB/HOLD/Bt4.90/Target: Bt5.40) Challenging targets for 2025 amid headwinds. Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC TB/BUY/Bt5.65/Target: Bt9.00) 4Q24 results preview: Positive earnings guidance with cheap valuation. The Erawan Group (ERW TB/BUY/Bt3.28/Target: Bt4.60) 4Q24 results preview: Expect an outstanding quarter

Arsit Pamaranont ... (+13)
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Colin Lee
  • Damon Shen
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Kasemsun Koonnara
  • Paula Ruth
  • Philip Wong
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

Regional Morning Notes - Thursday, January 23, 2025

GREATER CHINA Strategy China Property And China Property Management: Property market marginally cools down before CNY; 2024 earnings preview on COLI/CR Land/COPH. Update Shenzhou International Group Holdings (2313 HK/BUY/HK$57.65 /Target: HK$96.30): Faster-than-expected revenue growth in 2H24 with milder margin expansion. Sunny Optical (2382 HK/BUY/HK$69.85/Target: HK$85.00): Smartphone and automobile businesses to support growth in 2025. Maintain BUY. INDONESIA Update XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp...

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+20)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Colin Lee
  • Gigi Cheuk
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • Jack Goh Tooan Orng
  • Jack Lai Yuan Khai
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kasemsun Koonnara
  • Kate Luang
  • Ken Lee
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Krit Tanarattananon
  • Llelleythan Tan Tan
  • Ming San Soong
  • Nurul Nazira Binti Abdullah
  • Paula Ruth
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, November 22, 2024

GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales up wow; NDRC indicates support for ICE-cars. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao Glass and Desay SV. IT Hardware Blackwell production ramp accelerating; brace for another year of robust growth. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/HOLD/HK$83.85/Target: HK$90.00) ...

Arsit Pamaranont
  • Arsit Pamaranont

Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC TB) - 3Q24: Results In Line; Attractive ...

Like its peers, SPRC posted a 3Q24 net loss of Bt2.2b. Excluding one-off items, SPRC’s core profit was Bt196m (3Q23: Bt1.5b gain; 2Q24: Bt387m loss), aligning with our forecast. Core profit for 9M24 totalled Bt2.0b, representing 82% of our full-year projection. We believe its operating performance will continue to improve from 4Q24 onwards. SPRC’s valuation is undemanding, and the recent share price correction seems overdone. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt9.50.

Arsit Pamaranont ... (+5)
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Kampon Akaravarinchai
  • Kasemsun Koonnara
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong

Thailand Daily - Friday, November 15, 2024

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Amata Corporation (AMATA TB/BUY/Bt23.50/Target: Bt35.00) 3Q24: Net income missed expectations but still skyrocketed yoy and qoq. Bangkok Chain Hospital (BCH TB/BUY/Bt16.10/Target: Bt20.00) 3Q24: Mild growth. Central Pattana (CPN TB/BUY/Bt60.00/Target: Bt84.00) 3Q24: Results in line; well-positioned to close 2024 with a new record high. Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL TB/SELL/Bt33.00/Target: Bt47.00) 3Q24: Better-than-expect...

Arsit Pamaranont ... (+3)
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Krit Tanarattananon

Thailand Daily: Thursday, October 17, 2024 [TH Strategy, TH Electronic...

Strategy The First Policy Rate Cut Maintain a positive view on the SET index, with finance, retail, food, and utilities benefitting the most. Top picks are BGRIM, CK, CPALL, MTC, RATCH, and TFG. Sector Electronics Core profit should drop qoq due to lower GPM from forex impact. Update Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC TB/BUY/Bt7.05/Target: Bt9.50) Weak 3Q24 earnings guidance due to significant stock loss.

Arsit Pamaranont
  • Arsit Pamaranont

Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC TB) - Weak 3Q24 Earnings Guidance Due To...

SPRC will announce its 3Q24 results on 13 Nov 24. We expect SPRC to report a significant net loss of Bt1.7b in 3Q24 due to a substantial stock loss. However, we foresee opportunities to accumulate the stock. We believe its operating performance will continue to improve from 4Q24 onwards backed by seasonality with an absence of ship-to-ship cost in 2025. SPRC’s valuation is undemanding and the recent share price correction seems overdone. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt9.50

Arsit Pamaranont ... (+10)
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Johnny Yum
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Krit Tanarattananon
  • Nurul Nazira Binti Abdullah
  • Stevanus Juanda

Regional Morning Notes - Thursday, October 17, 2024

GREATER CHINA Strategy Hong Kong Developers And Hong Kong Landlords: Takeaways of 2024 Hong Kong Policy Address. INDONESIA Strategy New Cabinet Members For 2024-29: Our top picks: ASII, NCKL, BBNI, BBTN, BSDE, CTRA, BBYB, SIDO, CMRY, and ACES. We have an end-24 target of 8,000 for the JCI. MALAYSIA Update British American Tobacco (ROTH MK/HOLD/RM7.50/Target: RM6.93): Cloudy outlook amid downtrading and regulatory navigation. SP Setia (SPSB MK/BUY/RM1.31/Target: RM1.95): Battersea worries fade:...

Arsit Pamaranont
  • Arsit Pamaranont

Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC TB) - 2Q24: Results Below Estimates But ...

SPRC’s 2Q24 net profit was Bt346m, down 90% qoq but reversing from 2023’s loss of Bt2.0b. Excluding one-off items, SPRC’s core loss was Bt387m (2Q23: loss of Bt575m; 1Q24: profit Bt2.2b), below our estimate. We believe SPRC’s earnings will see a significant growth in 2H24 on margin improvement without extra cost from ship-to-ship activity. Upgrade to BUY. Target price: Bt9.50.

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