Strong Q3 numbers

AcadeMedia AB (Buy, TP: SEK63.00) - Q3e share redemption

The Q2 results were in line with expectations with still-strong FCF generation and an indication of 4–5% school-voucher price adjustments for 2024, now better offsetting ongoing cost inflation. We have only tweaked our EPS forecasts following the results. We see a solid demand outlook and an attractive valuation (2023/24–2025/26e FCF yields of 14–21%), with the upcoming Q3e share redemption (equal to a buyback of c3.8% of shares outstanding) starting to counter ‘value trap’ arguments. We reitera...

AcadeMedia AB: 1 director

A director at AcadeMedia AB bought 1,650,000 shares at 46.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...

AcadeMedia AB (Buy, TP: SEK63.00) - Updated capital allocation policy

The Q1 results were in line with our forecasts, and management guided for a better cost inflation and voucher price adjustments balance in 2024. We see a solid demand outlook and an attractive valuation (2023/24–2024/25e FCF yield of 18–22%) but a lack of near-term catalysts. However, its board has taken a small step in the right direction in updating the capital allocation policy, suggesting a 2024 share redemption programme. We reiterate our BUY and SEK63 target price, reflecting still-healthy...

Northern Lights

AcadeMedia AB (Buy, TP: SEK63.00) - Solid Q4 headline numbers

Q4 continued AcadeMedia’s operational and financial strength, looking at its early release of headline numbers. We have raised our EPS forecasts by 2–3%. We see a solid demand outlook and an attractive valuation (FCF yield 2023/24e of 20% and 2024/25e of 23%) but a lack of catalysts, with its board doing little to counter ‘value trap’ concerns. We reiterate our BUY and SEK63 target price, suggesting no near-term multiples expansion.

Northern Lights

AcadeMedia AB (Buy, TP: SEK63.00) - Going international

AcadeMedia reported solid Q3 results, seeing high growth, driven by price and volume, and good mitigation of the high cost inflation. We have raised our EPS forecasts by 2–3%. We see a solid demand outlook and an attractive valuation (FCF yield 2023/24e of 19% and 2024/25e of 21%) but a lack of catalysts, with the board doing little to counter ‘value trap’ concerns. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK63 (61), suggesting no near-term multiples expansion.

Northern Lights

AcadeMedia AB (Buy, TP: SEK61.00) - 2023 voucher price adjustments bet...

The Q2 results were in line with expectations and, more importantly, AcadeMedia indicated higher school voucher price adjustments for 2023 than we expected, partly offsetting current cost inflation. We have only tweaked our EPS forecasts post the results. We see a solid demand outlook and an attractive valuation (2023/24–2024/25e FCF yields of 19–21%) but a lack of catalysts, with the board doing little to counter ‘value trap’ concerns. We reiterate our BUY and SEK61 target price, suggesting no ...

Northern Lights

AcadeMedia AB (Buy, TP: SEK61.00) - Board adding uncertainty

We see a risk that 2023 school voucher price adjustments will not fully offset cost inflation, which has led us to cut our 2022/23–2024/25e EPS by 10–5%. The case benefits from a solid demand outlook and attractive valuation (2022/23–2024/25e FCF yield of 16–22%), but lacks catalysts, with its Board doing little to counter the ‘value trap’ arguments. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK61 (90), resetting the valuation base, now a 30% discount to its historical NTM valuat...

AcadeMedia - A few bad quarters will not break the case

Inflation a short-term pain ’22/’23e adj. EBIT down 5% Reiterate BUY with new TP of SEK 90 (95)

Northern Lights

AcadeMedia AB (Buy, TP: SEK90.00) - Share buybacks on the agenda

AcadeMedia’s Q1 was on the weak side with cost inflation potentially not fully compensated for until 2024 and further efficiency moves in Adult Education prompting us to cut our 2022/23–2024/25e adj EPS by 8–3%. With the Swedish political landscape now being more supportive, the case benefits from strong value support but lacks momentum, with an updated capital allocation policy being a potential catalyst to remove ‘value trap’ arguments. We reiterate our BUY and SEK90 target price.

AcadeMedia - Inflation is taking its toll

Sales -1% and adj. EBIT -7% vs cons Cons ‘22/’23e adj. EBIT probably down 1-3% Share to underperform in line with revisions

AcadeMedia - No profit withdrawal for the first 3-5 years

New government close the door for short-term profits Rules apply for new-built and acquired units A long-term actor can continue to do business

AcadeMedia - Political uncertainty should decrease for now

H1 facing tough comps, adj. EBIT down ~20% in Q1e We take down adj. EBIT ~2% for ‘22/’23e Fiscal Q1 report due on 25 October

Northern Lights

AcadeMedia AB (Buy, TP: SEK90.00) - Election and capital allocation

AcadeMedia continued to do well operationally and financially in Q4. We still believe the perceived political risk exceeds the actual risk, but the private-school debate in Sweden has pushed the share price to record lows. We reiterate our BUY and SEK90 target price, and view an updated capital-allocation policy as a potential catalyst.