Continues its international expansion

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK16.00) - Positive 2025 outlook

While underlying Q1 results were weaker than we expected, we still see a positive outlook for 2025, with solid bookings, a narrowed CASK guidance supported by a NOK1bn profit improvement programme by 2026, FX, and fuel tailwinds. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK16 (17) on estimate reductions.

Summer late rush, profits set to flush

Meets expectations in Q3

Q1 below on higher cost

Clean EBIT below on higher cost (mainly fuel).

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK17.00) - April traffic statistics

We consider this a slightly positive report for Norwegian Air Shuttle, including figures more or less in line with expectations, with a marginally lower yield offset by a higher load, and positive outlook comments with regard to summer bookings. We expect only minor changes to consensus 2025e adj. EBITDA, and believe a neutral to slightly positive share price reaction is warranted.

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK17.00) - April traffic statistics p...

April’s traffic statistics are due at 08:00 CET on 7 May. We are positive ahead of the report, expecting a strong yield recovery supported by Easter timing effects and easing capacity growth. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK17 (15) on positive estimate changes on our revised fuel and USDNOK assumptions.

Increased political risk

Frontline (Buy, TP: NOK280.00) - Front-row ticket to tanker potential

We believe the tanker fundamentals continue to look attractive, in particular for the VLCCs, with a highly manageable ~4% deliveries expected for 2025–2026. Further, we see potential positive catalysts in sanctions further restricting volumes transported on the dark fleet (possibly triggering scrapping postponed by shadow fleet deployment) and signs of a more aggressive volume strategy from OPEC+. Hence, we reiterate our BUY but have reduced out target price to NOK280 (295).

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK15.00) - March traffic statistics

We consider this a slightly soft report for Norwegian Air Shuttle, with a slightly weaker load and yield for Norwegian Air only partly offset by strong performance from Widerøe. We expect consensus 2025e adj. EBITDA to come down by c1% on the back of the report and believe a neutral to slightly negative share price reaction is warranted.

March revenues 2.5% below

Group sales NOK 2.3bn, -2.5% vs us/cons on lower yield/load in NAS. Negative Easter effects, but April likely better - MTM EPS 25% above cons on lower fuel/weaker USD

More than just a dollar play

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK15.00) - Tailwinds ahead

We expect Norwegian Air Shuttle to report a weak Q1, hit by high capacity growth and Easter timing effects. However, we find the outlook for the summer season increasingly encouraging, with healthy demand, low supply growth and a positive cost impact from a weaker USD. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK15 (13) on positive revisions.

Frontline Plc: 1 director

A director at Frontline Plc bought 5,000 shares at 171.050NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 57/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

‘The times they are a-changin’

The recurring theme at our 18th Energy & Shipping Conference was geopolitical uncertainty and a potential trade war, warranting a wait-and-see approach, particularly on the Trump 2.0 effect. The consensus view pointed to high asset values, with no rush to the yards, aligning with below-NAV valuations across most of our coverage. However, panellists generally saw less downside risk than the 25% average discount to steel for our Tanker, Dry Bulk and Gas coverage. Overall, the day highlighted uncer...

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK13.00) - February traffic statistic...

We consider this a neutral report for Norwegian Air Shuttle, including a yield in line with expectations on a marginally lower load and positive booking comments. We expect only minor changes to consensus 2025e adj. EBITDA and believe a neutral share price reaction is warranted.

Feb below, good booking momentum

Traffic stats for Feb: Group sales 2bn, -3.9% vs us / cons on lower yield in NAS. Outlook: Sees good booking momentum

Buying used aircraft: Pos EPS effect

Buying 10 Boeing aircraft - should lift clean '25 EPS by ~10%