Transactions, CMD and halted DPS

This week Balder, Citycon and SBB announced divestments, Public Property Invest was assigned an IG rating by Fitch, and Corem hosted its CMD. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.45% for 2024e and 5.01% for 2025e.

Ambea AB: 7 directors

Seven Directors at Ambea AB sold/sold after exercising options 131,142 shares at between 97.000SEK and 99.500SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the com...

Citycon (Hold, TP: EUR3.75) - Balance sheet needs strengthening

The Q3 results were broadly in line with our forecasts. Citycon narrowed its 2024 guidance, and we estimate EPS just below its 0.47-0.49 EUR per share outlook Despite maintaining its quarterly DPS, we still believe the balance sheet needs to improve. The strategy appears to be deleveraging with assets sales; we expect ‘crown jewels’ to be sold. However, we find this largely reflected in the current NAV discount, and have upgraded to HOLD (SELL) and maintained our target price of EUR3.75.

Mixed Q3s and soft datapoint for Stockholm office market

This week, Hufvudstaden, Veidekke, Selvaag Bolig and Skanska reported Q3 results. Furthermore, Vasakronan (unlisted) reported soft vacancies and net lettings, which we consider a negative datapoint for peers such as Fabege and Hufuvdstaden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.33% for 2024e and 4.88% for 2025e.

Sparebanken Sor: 1 director

A director at Sparebanken Sor bought 2,600 shares at 191.000NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...

Ambea (Buy, TP: SEK120.00) - Margin approaching 9.5% already

Q3 showed continued solid revenue, earnings and FCF generation, with Ambea close to reaching its medium-term >9.5% EBITA margin target (Q3 LTM 9.4%). We see a strong case, given: 1) the robust demand outlook combined with an asset-light, cash-generating model; 2) renewed execution on bolt-on acquisitions and dividends/share buybacks; and 3) an attractive valuation at 2024–2026e FCF yields of 9–11%. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK120 (110).

Sparebanken Sør (Buy, TP: NOK227.00) - Resilient margins and credit qu...

Aided by a positive NII trend, an improved contribution from associated companies and still-modest loan losses, SOR reported a Q3 ROE of 11.7%, despite booking NOK9m of merger-related costs and underlying cost inflation remaining somewhat elevated. After a stable CET1 ratio QOQ, the bank continued to guide for a c2.8%-point benefit from the upcoming new standard method. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to NOK227 (213) to reflect the agreed exchange ratio and our target pric...

Scatec (Hold, TP: NOK86.00) - Setting its priorities straight

We like the sharpened investment strategy up to 2027 with keener focus on core technologies and markets, and we welcome the attention on deleveraging, but we believe more than the low end of divestment proceeds is needed to fix the balance sheet. With more EPC scope from core technologies and an outlook for higher margins, we believe the market could start to assign a higher value to D&C. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to NOK86 (80) on increased D&C estimates.

SpareBank 1 Østlandet (Hold, TP: NOK150.00) - Non-NII tailwinds, but l...

Aided by strong trading income (including a NOK287m gain from the Fremtind/Eika merger) and fees, Q3 ROE was a strong 20.4%, despite somewhat elevated loan losses. With solid lending growth partly offset by margin pressure, ‘real NII’ rose by 0.6% QOQ. Adjusted for merger-related expenses, YOY cost inflation was 11.0%. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by ~1% and our target price to NOK150 (148). However, trading at a 2025e P/E of ~9.9x, we continue to find a more attractive risk/reward elsewher...

Two upgrades, an equity raise, and transactions

This week, we upgraded Balder to BUY and Sagax to HOLD following their Q3 results, Balder completed a SEK1.5bn equity raise and bought assets from a JV, while a >5% rent increase for 2025 provided a positive datapoint for rent-regulated apartments in Sweden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.31% for 2024e and 4.86% for 2025e.

Klaveness Combination Carriers (Buy, TP: NOK141.00) - Dynamic market e...

KCC continued to prove the value of its business model in Q3 amidst a deteriorating freight environment, by adjusting its share of wet/dry and combination trading with developments in the relevant freight markets. We believe this highlights the company’s superior risk profile, through its ability to outperform in challenging market conditions compared to its tanker and dry bulk peers. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to NOK141 (145).

Soft rates reduce near-term estimates

Q4e up on guidance, '25 estimates down on lower rates. ABGSCe 18% above cons. on ’25e net profit. BUY, TP NOK 152 (unchanged) – P/NAV 0.73x.

Q3 results and Q4 guidance as expected

Sparebanken Sør: Second Party Opinion – Green Bond Framework Assigned ...

We have assigned an SQS2 to Sparebanken Sør's green bond framework, which is aligned with the relevant principles and demonstrates a significant contribution to sustainability.

AcadeMedia AB (Buy, TP: SEK92.00) - Finding bolt-on acquisitions again

Q1 was in line with our forecasts, showing growth across all segments. We see a solid demand outlook, driving growth, and an attractive valuation (2024/25–2026/27e FCF yield of 15–20%), with AcadeMedia back in acquisition mode (four bolt-ons in Q1) and the now recurring share redemption programme (SEK300m) addressing its weak track record in capital allocation. We see the potential for a continued re-rating and reiterate our BUY and SEK92 target price.

Q3 and rental KPIs in focus

This week, reporting season was in full swing, with nine covered companies reporting Q3 results. Overall, the results were mixed, while net lettings and vacancy rates were main points of interest given the current weak rental markets. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.32% for 2024e and 4.78% for 2025e.

Q1 beat driven by Adult Education

Strong Q1 but temporary drivers

We keep BUY after a solid Q3

Winter is not here yet