The Q1 result was solid, with ROE above 15%, NII holding up better than feared and solid cost control. We are puzzled by the relatively mild NII decline so far since rate cuts began circa a year ago, but find it increasingly likely that it will be less dramatic than we previously thought. Still, we find the NII outlook as rather uncertain, see downside risk to consensus revenues, and expect the ROE to fall below 15% next quarter. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our 2025–2027e EPS by 3–6% ...
Q1 provided few surprises: total orders were a touch better than expected; orders received margins continued to decline; China orders matched our estimates; cash flow was strong; and the 2025 guidance was broadly in line with consensus. Having raised our 2025–2027e clean EPS by c2% on average, we have increased our target price to EUR55 (52) but reiterate our HOLD.
The Q1 report was a bit soft, with orders in line, adj. EBIT 5% below consensus and a reduction of the outlook, now expecting weaker customer activity near-term. VT not missing consensus orders and margins was a relief, and a restructuring of the division is underway, with full margin recovery expected by 2026. Having trimmed our organic growth and adj. EBIT margin assumptions, we have lowered our 2025–2027e adj. EBIT by c3% on average. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to ...
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