AcadeMedia AB (Buy, TP: SEK65.00) - Finnish market entry

Q3 was solid, with growth, profit and FCF driven by volume and price. The Touhula acquisition appears value-enhancing and AcadeMedia’s recent share redemption makes sense, now starting to address its track record of weak capital allocation. We see a solid demand outlook and an attractive valuation, and reiterate our BUY. We have raised our target price to SEK65 (63), still implying no near-term multiples expansion.

On the right track again

Profitability is on the rise. More to come when utilisation improves. Reiterate BUY, new TP of SEK 85 (80).

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK21.00) - April traffic statistics

We consider this a slightly negative report. For legacy Norwegian Air Shuttle, the yield was slightly below our expectations but with higher PAX, while the Widerøe load and yield missed slightly. We expect 1% negative estimate revision to consensus 2024 EBITDA on the back of the report, and believe a slight negative share price reaction is warranted.

Alligator Bioscience (Buy, TP: SEK1.10) - OPTIMIZE-1 needs more patien...

In connection with its Q1 report, Alligator Bioscience reported that the FDA wants to see more data from the low-dose cohort in OPTIMIZE-1 (15 more patients and recruitment has already started). This is due to Project Optimus within the FDA, and PK/PD data from the low-dose cohort should be available in Q1 2025. There is a risk that this added uncertainty could delay partnering discussions for mitazalimab, we believe. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK1.10 (1.50).

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK21.00) - April traffic statistics p...

The April traffic statistics are due at 08:00 CET on 7 May. We expect Norwegian Air’s figures to be affected by the early timing of Easter and ramp up of capacity ahead of the summer season, forecasting a lower yield and load YOY. We reiterate our BUY and NOK21 target price.

Strong Q3 numbers

Yard response and dry bulk qualms

Our trip to South Korea and China revealed Chinese shipbuilders are seeking growth to take on Korea’s established yards who are facing constraints. An eagerness to add capacity is one of our takeaways, as well as a gloomy outlook for Chinese real estate, which in our view should inevitably weigh on dry bulk demand.

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK21.00) - Weak Q1 due to higher cost...

Norwegian Air Shuttle traded down c7% on Wednesday on weaker than expected Q1 results hit by higher costs, which made the market question the reiterated 2024 CASK guidance. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to NOK21 (23) on negative estimate revisions, reflecting slightly revised cost assumptions.

ATH profits next

Weak Q1 in a seasonally small quarter, upbeat outlook kept. Unit costs need to improve - key for confidence. '24e EPS down 2.5%. BUY, TP NOK 21.

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK23.00) - Widerøe set for take-off

Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS NO, Buy) - Widerøe set for take-off (34 pages)

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK20.00) - March traffic statistics

We consider this a slightly positive report for Norwegian Air Shuttle, including strong figures for Norwegian Air, slightly weak figures from Widerøe, and a cautious outlook for April. We expect 1–2% positive revisions to consensus 2024e EBITDA and believe a slightly positive share price reaction is warranted.

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK20.00) - March traffic statistics p...

The March traffic statistics are due at 08:00 CET on 5 April. We are positive ahead of the report, expecting a continued positive trend for yield and load. We reiterate our BUY and NOK20 target price.

Oncopeptides (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Rights issue announced

Oncopeptides this morning announced plans for a cSEK300m fully guaranteed rights issue. This should not come as a surprise to the market as the company was very clear in its Q4 report that it had financial resources to last into Q2 2024. Due to DNB Markets’ role in the rights issue, we have withdrawn our target price and recommendation.

A brewing challenge for the yards

Our 17th Annual Energy & Shipping Conference was well attended by investors and industry executives showcasing the still-growing interest for the sectors. Limited yard capacity is fuelling high newbuilding prices and raising freight rate expectations for the vast fleet renewal necessary in the coming decade. Long lead times underpin a bullish supply story for much of shipping in the coming years, albeit exposed to geopolitical risks affecting trade patterns. Our overall impression was general op...

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK20.00) - February traffic statistic...

We consider this a positive report for Norwegian Air Shuttle, with load and yield above expectations and positive outlook comments. We expect 1–2% positive revisions to consensus 2024e BITDA and believe a slight positive share price reaction is warranted.

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK20.00) - February traffic statistic...

Norwegian Air Shuttle is due to report its February traffic statistics at 08:00 CET on 6 March. We are positive ahead of the report, expecting a continued strong yield trend YOY and a flat load factor MOM. We reiterate our BUY and NOK20 target price.

Frontline Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates, owing to the Q4 results and QTD fixtures. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We retain our positive outlook for VLCCs given growing freight demand, low orderbook and high fleet renewal requirements due to strict environmental regulations. Frontline’s well-timed acquisition of 24 VLCCs from Euronav has already gained USD200m for its shareholders (~NOK10/share) since the transaction, while also increasing ...