The HSI and MSCI China rose 7.4% and 6.4% mom respectively in April, lifted by news of a stock connect scheme expansion and further easing of restrictions on property purchases in China. With the July Politburo likely to see further supportive policy rollout, we are adding beneficiaries of improving domestic consumption − CR Beer, Crystal, Geely, Haier, Kuaishou, Ningbo Tuopu, Pinduoduo, Shenzhou and Tencent − to our BUY list, and closing out our SELL calls.
In 1Q24, Midea’s smart home solutions business recorded revenue growth of 11% yoy, with overseas business expansion making great efforts through new channels and in new markets. We are in favour of Midea’s overseas expansion achievements, and we believe the still robust AC production planning data for 2Q24 will boost the sentiment of AC makers. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of Rmb76.20.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$34.95/Target: HK$44.00) CMB’s 1Q24 earnings were slightly below our expectations due to disappointing fee income and higher cost ratio, partly offset by strong trading gains and lower credit impairment. 1Q24 NIM performance beat our expectation with a 2bp qoq decline and we expect it to hit its bottom by 2024 if there is another round of deposit rate cuts. Besides that, asset quality remains largely stable. Maintain BUY. Target price:...
In this report, we have summarised what we read from consumer companies’ 2023 results, the 2024 outlook and recent updates. We think companies: a) with overseas expansion or turnaround prospects, b) that have upside potential of improving operating efficiency, c) that will benefit from near-term catalysts (eg event-driven), and d) have increasing dividend payout will outperform. Anta, CR Beer, CTGDF, Galaxy, Haidilao, Haier, Midea and Shenzhou are our most preferred stocks. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Int'l Equity Strategy Throughout 2024 we have discussed the theme of classic bull market behavior as evidenced by an ever-increasing number of global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. The long list of breakouts discussed throughout 2024 include the MSCI EM, Frontier, ACWI, and MSCI EAFE indexes (all in local currency), and also Japan, Israel, Germany, Sweden, France, Ireland, UK, South Korea, and Norway. Another important thing to note is that none of these breakouts are failing; t...
In Mar 24, the HSI and MSCI China edged up 0.2% and 0.9% mom respectively, as profit taking set in after the Two Sessions, while investors await further details of the policy support. The MSCI China index still trades at an undemanding valuation of 9.1x 12-month forward PE. We are mainly adding beneficiaries of policy support like Midea, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Shenzhen Inovance and Trip.com to our BUY list, but hedging with SELLs on BYD, EVE Energy and Li Auto, where price competition has intens...
Midea’s 2023 results slightly missed consensus and our estimates. However, the company sharpened its competitiveness in the home appliance sector through product upgrading and channel optimisation. In the near term, the upcoming AC peak season will be a catalyst for Midea, in our view. We switch to Midea as our top pick in the home appliance sector. Maintain BUY and raise target price by 13% to Rmb76.20.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results BYD Company (1211 HK/SELL/HK$201.60/Target: HK$140.00) 4Q23: Earnings up 19% yoy but down 17% qoq, in line. Management guides for flat earnings in 2024. Maintain SELL. Target price: HK$140.00. China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$17.08/Target: HK$22.50) 2023: Missed estimates on one-off loss; weak demand to persist in the near term. China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$30.95/Target: HK$44.00) 2023: Rise to the occasion. Country Garden Services (6098 HK/HOLD/HK$5.27...
GREATER CHINA Results BYD Company (1211 HK/SELL/HK$201.60/Target: HK$140.00): 4Q23: Earnings up 19% yoy but down 17% qoq, in line. Management guides for flat earnings in 2024. Maintain SELL. Target price: HK$140.00. China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$30.95/Target: HK$44.00): 2023: Rise to the occasion. Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK/BUY/HK$16.86/Target: HK$18.80): 2023: In line; revenue growth on higher table turnover in 2024. Midea Group (000333 CH/BUY/Rmb63.67 /Target: Rmb76.20): 20...
During the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, tourism, both domestic and outbound, catering and movie consumption put up strong performances. For the consumer sector, we prefer discretionary to staple, and Macau gaming in the discretionary space, given the strong recovery momentum of Macau tourism and moderate hike in opex. Galaxy is our top pick in Macau gaming sector, given its net cash position amid the higher interests. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Small-Mid Cap Biweekly: Pet food exports on track for recovery; beneficiary: Yantai China Pet Food. Results BYD Company (1211 HK/BUY/HK$246.20/Target: HK$630.00): 3Q23: Earnings up 82% yoy and 53% qoq, in line. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$630.00. China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$4.48/Target: HK$6.00): 3Q23: Results in line; earnings up 2.6% on lower credit costs. China Merchants Bank Co. (3968 HK/BUY/HK$30.30/Target: HK$45.00): 3Q23: Results miss; longer wait need...
During the Golden Week holiday, domestic tourism and catering recovery were on track while duty-free sales recovery was still weak. We prefer sportswear in the discretionary space, given the decent sales momentum during the holiday (Anta: in line with internal targets; Xtep: 20% yoy growth), and baijiu in the staples space, given baijiu’s strong brand power. We prefer Anta in the sportswear sector, given its multiple catalysts, and Moutai in the baijiu sector, for its highest earnings visibility...
We believe the capital market focus has shifted to overseas market recovery instead of domestic AC sales after the peak season. In our view, the overseas market recovery is underway with normalised inventories and improved enddemand. We now turn more optimistic on China white goods exports in 4Q23, supported by overseas retailers?re-stocking for the upcoming holiday season. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector and prefer Haier-H to Midea.
Midea’s 1H23 results slightly beat the street’s estimate. We expect home appliance demand to continue being lukewarm in 2H23, especially for air conditioners, given the earlier unleashing of consumer demand from the summer season. We think there are limited catalysts for the company in the near term. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of Rmb67.30.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Insurance Outstanding 1H23 results from PICC P&C, Ping An and Prudential. Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$6.27/Target: HK$8.80) 1H23: Above expectations; wind power utilisation hours grew 8.4% yoy. China Merchants Port (144 HK/BUY/HK$9.46/Target: HK$13.33) 1H23: Results broadly in line; attractive valuation amid cautious outlook. Maintain BUY. CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$33.25/Target: HK$47.48) 1H23: Results beat expectations; leading market position further str...
We maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s home appliance sector. The recent strong AC sales momentum was mainly due to seasonality, while home appliance demand has yet to recover, in our view. Looking ahead, we see a lack of catalysts to support the share price rally of white goods names, as distributors’ restocking will decelerate and uncertainties remain in overseas markets. We suggest investors take profit at the current stage, after the sector’s share price rally of 14% since June.
We expect to see periodical opportunities in the following months due to the slow pace of consumption recovery and lack of incremental funds. We suggest paying more attention when the share prices dip to a low level that is close to the bottoms in Apr/Oct-Nov 22. We are confident on domestic sportswear leaders’ future growth from the increasing demand for professional sports products against the partially recovered purchasing power. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the consumer sector.
In spite of the limited funds in the market, we believe that consumer names’ investment opportunities still exist after share prices factored in rational expectations. We expect players with high earnings visibility and/or faster-than-expected growth pace (ie Moutai, Anta and CR Beer) to remain attractive for investment against a relatively weak consumption recovery background. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the consumer sector.
While we think the road ahead to an overall consumption recovery is still bumpy despite the RSV pickup in 2M23, we are upbeat on the wealthy group’s sustainable consumption ability and the future growth of China’s luxury and duty-free markets. We believe the duty-free market will grow at a faster pace than the overall luxury market in China. CTGDF will be the largest beneficiary of the government’s intention to nurture it into a super strong duty-free leader globally. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the ...
Midea expected rising sales growth this year and 5-10% growth for overall revenue and earnings in 2023. It forecasted about 3x sales hike in the auto parts segment, and expected the building technology segment and KUKA to see 10% and high single-digit sales growth in 2023. We believe its efficient management and incentive mechanism, strong R&D ability, efficient operations and competitive product mix will firmly support its leading position in the future. Maintain BUY with a new target price of ...
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