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Greater China Research Team
  • Greater China Research Team

Greater China Alpha Picks: May Conviction Call

The HSI and MSCI China rose 7.4% and 6.4% mom respectively in April, lifted by news of a stock connect scheme expansion and further easing of restrictions on property purchases in China. With the July Politburo likely to see further supportive policy rollout, we are adding beneficiaries of improving domestic consumption − CR Beer, Crystal, Geely, Haier, Kuaishou, Ningbo Tuopu, Pinduoduo, Shenzhou and Tencent − to our BUY list, and closing out our SELL calls.

Jo Yee Ng ... (+3)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

Midea Group (000333 CH): 1Q24: Core net profit grew 20% yoy; great eff...

In 1Q24, Midea’s smart home solutions business recorded revenue growth of 11% yoy, with overseas business expansion making great efforts through new channels and in new markets. We are in favour of Midea’s overseas expansion achievements, and we believe the still robust AC production planning data for 2Q24 will boost the sentiment of AC makers. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of Rmb76.20.

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+12)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Ceilica Su Rui
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Ken Lee
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Sunny Chen
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Greater China Daily: Tuesday, April 30, 2024

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$34.95/Target: HK$44.00) CMB’s 1Q24 earnings were slightly below our expectations due to disappointing fee income and higher cost ratio, partly offset by strong trading gains and lower credit impairment. 1Q24 NIM performance beat our expectation with a 2bp qoq decline and we expect it to hit its bottom by 2024 if there is another round of deposit rate cuts. Besides that, asset quality remains largely stable. Maintain BUY. Target price:...

Jo Yee Ng ... (+3)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

China Consumer: Focus on four key theses for the sector.

In this report, we have summarised what we read from consumer companies’ 2023 results, the 2024 outlook and recent updates. We think companies: a) with overseas expansion or turnaround prospects, b) that have upside potential of improving operating efficiency, c) that will benefit from near-term catalysts (eg event-driven), and d) have increasing dividend payout will outperform. Anta, CR Beer, CTGDF, Galaxy, Haidilao, Haier, Midea and Shenzhou are our most preferred stocks. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Int'l Macro Vision: Sector Synopsis

Int'l Equity Strategy Throughout 2024 we have discussed the theme of classic bull market behavior as evidenced by an ever-increasing number of global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. The long list of breakouts discussed throughout 2024 include the MSCI EM, Frontier, ACWI, and MSCI EAFE indexes (all in local currency), and also Japan, Israel, Germany, Sweden, France, Ireland, UK, South Korea, and Norway. Another important thing to note is that none of these breakouts are failing; t...

Greater China Research Team
  • Greater China Research Team

China Strategy Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls

In Mar 24, the HSI and MSCI China edged up 0.2% and 0.9% mom respectively, as profit taking set in after the Two Sessions, while investors await further details of the policy support. The MSCI China index still trades at an undemanding valuation of 9.1x 12-month forward PE. We are mainly adding beneficiaries of policy support like Midea, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Shenzhen Inovance and Trip.com to our BUY list, but hedging with SELLs on BYD, EVE Energy and Li Auto, where price competition has intens...

Jo Yee Ng ... (+3)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

Midea Group (000333 CH): 2023: Results missed slightly; AC peak season...

Midea’s 2023 results slightly missed consensus and our estimates. However, the company sharpened its competitiveness in the home appliance sector through product upgrading and channel optimisation. In the near term, the upcoming AC peak season will be a catalyst for Midea, in our view. We switch to Midea as our top pick in the home appliance sector. Maintain BUY and raise target price by 13% to Rmb76.20.

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+11)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Damon Shen
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Ken Lee
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Sunny Chen

Greater China Daily: Thursday, March 28, 2024

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results BYD Company (1211 HK/SELL/HK$201.60/Target: HK$140.00) 4Q23: Earnings up 19% yoy but down 17% qoq, in line. Management guides for flat earnings in 2024. Maintain SELL. Target price: HK$140.00. China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$17.08/Target: HK$22.50) 2023: Missed estimates on one-off loss; weak demand to persist in the near term. China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$30.95/Target: HK$44.00) 2023: Rise to the occasion. Country Garden Services (6098 HK/HOLD/HK$5.27...

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+14)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Damon Shen
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Ken Lee
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Llelleythan Tan Tan
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Stevanus Juanda
  • Sunny Chen
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong

Regional Morning Notes - Thursday, March 28, 2024

GREATER CHINA Results BYD Company (1211 HK/SELL/HK$201.60/Target: HK$140.00): 4Q23: Earnings up 19% yoy but down 17% qoq, in line. Management guides for flat earnings in 2024. Maintain SELL. Target price: HK$140.00. China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$30.95/Target: HK$44.00): 2023: Rise to the occasion. Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK/BUY/HK$16.86/Target: HK$18.80): 2023: In line; revenue growth on higher table turnover in 2024. Midea Group (000333 CH/BUY/Rmb63.67 /Target: Rmb76.20): 20...

Jo Yee Ng ... (+3)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

China Consumer: Tourism, catering and movie consumption: Strong perfor...

During the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, tourism, both domestic and outbound, catering and movie consumption put up strong performances. For the consumer sector, we prefer discretionary to staple, and Macau gaming in the discretionary space, given the strong recovery momentum of Macau tourism and moderate hike in opex. Galaxy is our top pick in Macau gaming sector, given its net cash position amid the higher interests. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.

Ariel Poh Yun Li ... (+19)
  • Ariel Poh Yun Li
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jacquelyn Yow Hui Li
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Kate Luang
  • Ken Lee
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Leow Huey Chuen
  • Philip Wong
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Stevanus Juanda
  • Sunny Chen
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Regional Morning Notes - Tuesday, October 31, 2023

GREATER CHINA Strategy Small-Mid Cap Biweekly: Pet food exports on track for recovery; beneficiary: Yantai China Pet Food. Results BYD Company (1211 HK/BUY/HK$246.20/Target: HK$630.00): 3Q23: Earnings up 82% yoy and 53% qoq, in line. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$630.00. China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$4.48/Target: HK$6.00): 3Q23: Results in line; earnings up 2.6% on lower credit costs. China Merchants Bank Co. (3968 HK/BUY/HK$30.30/Target: HK$45.00): 3Q23: Results miss; longer wait need...

Jo Yee Ng ... (+3)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

China Consumer: Good recovery by domestic tourism and catering during ...

During the Golden Week holiday, domestic tourism and catering recovery were on track while duty-free sales recovery was still weak. We prefer sportswear in the discretionary space, given the decent sales momentum during the holiday (Anta: in line with internal targets; Xtep: 20% yoy growth), and baijiu in the staples space, given baijiu’s strong brand power. We prefer Anta in the sportswear sector, given its multiple catalysts, and Moutai in the baijiu sector, for its highest earnings visibility...

Jo Yee Ng ... (+3)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

China Home Appliance: Overseas recovery underway; maintain MARKET WEIG...

We believe the capital market focus has shifted to overseas market recovery instead of domestic AC sales after the peak season. In our view, the overseas market recovery is underway with normalised inventories and improved enddemand. We now turn more optimistic on China white goods exports in 4Q23, supported by overseas retailers?re-stocking for the upcoming holiday season. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector and prefer Haier-H to Midea.

Jo Yee Ng ... (+2)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Stella Guo Yuting

Midea Group (000333 CH): 1H23: Results slightly beat; demand continues...

Midea’s 1H23 results slightly beat the street’s estimate. We expect home appliance demand to continue being lukewarm in 2H23, especially for air conditioners, given the earlier unleashing of consumer demand from the summer season. We think there are limited catalysts for the company in the near term. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of Rmb67.30.

Ariel Poh Yun Li ... (+14)
  • Ariel Poh Yun Li
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Damon Shen
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Ken Lee
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Sunny Chen
  • Terence Chiu
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Greater China Daily: Thursday, August 31, 2023

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Insurance Outstanding 1H23 results from PICC P&C, Ping An and Prudential. Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$6.27/Target: HK$8.80) 1H23: Above expectations; wind power utilisation hours grew 8.4% yoy. China Merchants Port (144 HK/BUY/HK$9.46/Target: HK$13.33) 1H23: Results broadly in line; attractive valuation amid cautious outlook. Maintain BUY. CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$33.25/Target: HK$47.48) 1H23: Results beat expectations; leading market position further str...

Jo Yee Ng ... (+2)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Stella Guo Yuting

China Home Appliance: Lack of catalysts ahead. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.

We maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s home appliance sector. The recent strong AC sales momentum was mainly due to seasonality, while home appliance demand has yet to recover, in our view. Looking ahead, we see a lack of catalysts to support the share price rally of white goods names, as distributors’ restocking will decelerate and uncertainties remain in overseas markets. We suggest investors take profit at the current stage, after the sector’s share price rally of 14% since June.

Jo Yee Ng ... (+2)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Zhifeng Shen

China Consumer Weekly: Periodical opportunities ahead; confident on pr...

We expect to see periodical opportunities in the following months due to the slow pace of consumption recovery and lack of incremental funds. We suggest paying more attention when the share prices dip to a low level that is close to the bottoms in Apr/Oct-Nov 22. We are confident on domestic sportswear leaders’ future growth from the increasing demand for professional sports products against the partially recovered purchasing power. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the consumer sector.

Jo Yee Ng ... (+2)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Zhifeng Shen

China Consumer Weekly: Upbeat on names with high earnings visibility.

In spite of the limited funds in the market, we believe that consumer names’ investment opportunities still exist after share prices factored in rational expectations. We expect players with high earnings visibility and/or faster-than-expected growth pace (ie Moutai, Anta and CR Beer) to remain attractive for investment against a relatively weak consumption recovery background. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the consumer sector.

Jo Yee Ng ... (+2)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Zhifeng Shen

China Consumer Weekly: Retail sales pickup; remain upbeat on the luxur...

While we think the road ahead to an overall consumption recovery is still bumpy despite the RSV pickup in 2M23, we are upbeat on the wealthy group’s sustainable consumption ability and the future growth of China’s luxury and duty-free markets. We believe the duty-free market will grow at a faster pace than the overall luxury market in China. CTGDF will be the largest beneficiary of the government’s intention to nurture it into a super strong duty-free leader globally. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the ...

Jo Yee Ng ... (+2)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Zhifeng Shen

Midea Group (000333 CH): A large-scale manufacturing leader.

Midea expected rising sales growth this year and 5-10% growth for overall revenue and earnings in 2023. It forecasted about 3x sales hike in the auto parts segment, and expected the building technology segment and KUKA to see 10% and high single-digit sales growth in 2023. We believe its efficient management and incentive mechanism, strong R&D ability, efficient operations and competitive product mix will firmly support its leading position in the future. Maintain BUY with a new target price of ...

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