UCB is our highest conviction BUY despite the imminent HS Phase 3 readout from MoonLake. We show the NPV downside is likely MSD, that ~40% of Bim sales are unaffected by sonelokimab & that UCB will out-muscle MoonLake across many domains. Our analysis of the HS data shows that background antibiotic use will need to be considered & that the drugs look very similar. However, UCB’s ~$5bn rebate wall, the >€1bn higher M&S spend than Moonlake & the L-T safety data all protect Bim’, as will the psoria...
1H25 revenues landed at €21.7m considerably below our €36m estimate. Adj. EBITDA stands at €-3.8m compared to our €+3.5m forecast. Segment reporting has changed and company no longer reports WaaS and non-WaaS but now differentiates the numbers between project and recurring business. FY25 guidance was issued and cautiously calls for growth in turnover vs. 2024. The 2025 outlook does not include any projections for Waterkracht on which the company will issue a separate update when relevant. Compan...
Upcoming phase 3 data from Bimzelx competitor, sonelokimab (IL17A/F nanobody), in HS is expected in September. In this note, we preview the readout and outline a few potential scenarios, highlighting the potential upside/downside for UCB's stock. While the stock may take a hit if sonelokimab shows a numerical difference on the primary endpoint, this will depend on the extent of the delta, and we see more limited downside if the numerical difference is on the smaller end, particularly in the cont...
HEADLINES: • Allegro: August is harvest time (downgraded to HOLD) • Hungary macro: challenging conditions keeping fiscal pressure high • Patria Bank: solid delivery in 2Q25 POSITIVE • Premier Energy: 2Q25 normalised EBITDA in line with our expectations NEUTRAL • 4iG: 2Q25 results review – 11% yoy increase in reported EBITDA, 3% above our estimate NEUTRAL • CA Immo: 2Q25 – continued progress with disposals; cancels treasury shares, launches new buyback • MedLife: takeaways from the 2Q25 earnings ...
On September 3rd, D'Ieteren's will report its 1H25 results after market close. In our estimates, we expect the adj. PBT (gs) to decline 15.8% on a reported basis to € 493m (css: € 475m). Note however that we expect this decline to be fully driven by refinancing as our estimates still assume a 1.1% increase in adj. EBIT (gs). As usual, the highlight of the results will be the performance at Belron. Contrary to the traditional seasonality, we expect margin improvement at Belron to be weighed towar...
JDE Peet’s share buyback update PRESS RELEASEAmsterdam, September 1, 2025 JDE Peet’s (EURONEXT: JDEP), the world’s leading pure-play coffee company, today announced that it has not repurchased any shares in the period from August 25, 2025 up to and including August 29, 2025. The company has also decided to terminate its share buyback program, effective immediately. Under the program, a total of 5,477,094 ordinary shares were repurchased at an average price of EUR 20.73, and for a total consideration of EUR 113.5 million. This press release is issued in accordance with the disclosure a...
dsm-firmenich strengthens its Executive Committee for future growth as a consumer-focused company Press Release dsm-firmenich strengthens its Executive Committee for future growth as a consumer-focused company Kaiseraugst (Switzerland), Maastricht (Netherlands), September 1, 2025 dsm-firmenich is entering a new chapter, accelerating its transformation into a fully consumer-focused company, and strengthening its position as a leading creation and innovation partner in nutrition, health, and beauty. dsm-firmenich is uniquely positioned to contribute to progress with the rise of holistic w...
Corbion announces share buyback program to cover commitments under the long-term employee incentive plan Corbion announces a share buyback program under which it plans to repurchase ordinary shares of Corbion N.V. for a maximum total amount of € 10 million and a maximum of 580.383 shares (based on the closing price of the Corbion ordinary share on Euronext Amsterdam on August 29, 2025). The share buyback program will be executed as from 1 September 2025, and will run until 30 November 2025 (or earlier if the maximum total amount or number of shares have been repurchased before that date). ...
A director at UCB SA bought 143 shares at 199.570EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing ...
UCB will present 26 abstracts from its epilepsy portfolio at the International Epilepsy Congress (IEC) in Lisbon, being held 30 August – 3 September. As well as qualitative and caregiver studies, the presentations will include a combined open label extension study of 412 DS and LGS patients who took part in Fintepla (fenfluramine) studies, and shows no new or unexpected safety signals with long-term sustained benefit, which we view as supportive of Fintepla's benefit in this patient population. ...
CFE: 1H results a bit light, FY outlook maintained. CMB.TECH: VLCC reasonable, pressure on Dry Bulk rates. dsm-firmenich: Givaudan CMD; Strategy 2030. Gimv: Investing in specialised healthcare services in the Netherlands. IBA: More sales but at lower margin
We reiterate our BUY rating on UCB and increase our target price from €220 to €238 following UCB's material beat in 1H25, especially driven by a strong performance of Bimzelx. We continue to see this drug as a game changer for the company, as we now model risk-adjusted peak sales of €7.8bn by 2033F. Bimzelx, alongside a continued increase in profit contribution from Evenity, should drive a Core EPS CAGR of c.+40/27% over 2024-27/30F, well ahead of its peers at +5.5% over 2024-27F. Next to this, ...
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