ABGSC Shipping Daily 11 April

ABGSC Shipping Daily 10 April

ABGSC Shipping Daily 9 April

ABGSC Shipping Daily 8 April

‘The times they are a-changin’

The recurring theme at our 18th Energy & Shipping Conference was geopolitical uncertainty and a potential trade war, warranting a wait-and-see approach, particularly on the Trump 2.0 effect. The consensus view pointed to high asset values, with no rush to the yards, aligning with below-NAV valuations across most of our coverage. However, panellists generally saw less downside risk than the 25% average discount to steel for our Tanker, Dry Bulk and Gas coverage. Overall, the day highlighted uncer...

BW LPG (Buy, TP: NOK190.00) - Well placed for US terminal boost

We believe the VLGC freight market outlook screens favourably on a c40% export capacity increase in the US by 2026e which, by assuming sufficient molecules to fill the terminals, is on track to outpace the delivery schedule through our forecast period. We find BW LPG attractive, trading at a 28% discount to steel, and believe the potential risks are skewed to the upside for our 16% average 2025–2026e earnings yield. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK190 (200).

LPG exports up 9% YTD bodes well for H2'25

Above for Q4, DPS at 3.5x cons

EBITDA of USD 104m (12% vs. ABGSC, 13% vs. cons.); Q1 guidance 11% below cons, 2% above ABGSCe; Share price up 2-4% on Q4 DPS beat.

A playbook on US tariffs

As a response to recent news flow of potential tariffs and countermeasures, we highlight the main implications for the shipping sectors we cover. While the specifics remain uncertain, the below input might assist in gauging potential impacts of the disruptions.

ABGSC Shipping Daily 30 January

Mixed tanker and dry bulk markets, LPG up, Shipping peer group trades at P/NAV 0.75x, BW LPG: Lower terminal fees imply upside to rates, SNI Q1: Q4 beat, guides for lower TCE in Q1

Lower terminal fees imply upside to rates

BW LPG (Buy, TP: NOK200.00) - Strong potential at a discount

We see solid VLGC market prospects on limited deliveries and with the US adding close to 40% terminal capacity by end-2026e, supporting growth and the shipowners’ share of the 2025 USD60k/day arbitrage. Applying the arbitrage as our spot rate estimate results in a 26% earnings yield for 2025e. Thus, we believe BW LPG screens attractively, trading at a 0.7x EV/GAV, which values a 5-year-old VLGC 7% below the historical mean. We reiterate our BUY and NOK200 target price.

BW LPG Ltd: 1 director

Two Directors at BW LPG Ltd bought/maiden bought 3,000 shares at 10.000USD. The significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two yea...

Short-term estimates down, still a HOLD

Q3 above, Q4 guidance below

EBITDA of USD 190m (79% vs. ABGSC, 43% vs. cons.). Q4 guidance slightly below cons, but timing of AGAS deliveries could matter. Share price up 2-4%.s

BW LPG (Buy, TP: NOK205.00) - Well placed for recent challenges

Despite the soft VLGC rates, we remain positive on BW LPG and expect its integrated model with Product Services to offset some of the downside risk in rates on record-high FOB premiums. The underlying product market remains strong, leading to a solid USD72k/day average 2025 arbitrage, which, by utilising the arbitrage as spot rate, implies a potential 27% yield. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK205 (250).

Too many moving parts

BW LPG (Buy, TP: NOK250.00) - Leveraging up into solid market

We believe the re-leveraged BW LPG, following its acquisition of 12 VLGCs, is well-placed to harvest solid earnings in what looks set to be a healthy freight market supported by limited 3% annualised fleet growth over the next eight quarters. With early signs of declining FOB premiums, we see potential for a return to shipowners’ historical share of the US-FE arbitrage, which we calculate results in a 24% earnings yield utilising the arbitrage as spot rate for 2025. We reinstate a recommendation...

Q2 slightly above, Q3 guidance in line with market

Adj. EBITDA of USD 135m (2% vs. ABGSC, 4% vs. cons.). Q3 guidance below cons., but in-line with the current market. Share price up 1-3% vs peers

Post-transaction current NAV of NOK 193/sh

Selling 12 VLGCs to BW LPG. Avance turns into a MGC-company. Post-transaction current NAV of NOK 139/sh.