Getinge (Buy, TP: SEK250.00) - An in-line report, but global turbulenc...

Reported Q1 earnings were in line with consensus. However, we still believe the turbulent environment with tariffs, huge FX swings and geopolitical uncertainty could hurt the company. We suspect these factors could have a large effect from Q2. The stock market probably read the comments on the global environment as a risk, leading to the sell-off in the stock. We reiterate our BUY and SEK250 target price.

Lack of clarity on margins in '25e

Strong sales, but lower margins in Q1

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...

Good start to the year in Q1e

ABGSC Shipping Daily 11 April

ABGSC Shipping Daily 10 April

ABGSC Shipping Daily 9 April

ABGSC Shipping Daily 8 April

Getinge (Buy, TP: SEK250.00) - FX and tariffs cause for concern

Given its geographical sales exposure, Getinge should see a strong tailwind from FX in Q1, but if spot rates stay as they are, this should turn abruptly into a significant headwind in Q2. Investors are also concerned about the potential impact from US tariffs and reciprocal actions in other markets, given that Getinge generates c40% of total sales (and c47% of the high-margin ACT sales) in the US. We reiterate our BUY, but have trimmed our target price to SEK250 (255).

‘The times they are a-changin’

The recurring theme at our 18th Energy & Shipping Conference was geopolitical uncertainty and a potential trade war, warranting a wait-and-see approach, particularly on the Trump 2.0 effect. The consensus view pointed to high asset values, with no rush to the yards, aligning with below-NAV valuations across most of our coverage. However, panellists generally saw less downside risk than the 25% average discount to steel for our Tanker, Dry Bulk and Gas coverage. Overall, the day highlighted uncer...

BW LPG (Buy, TP: NOK190.00) - Well placed for US terminal boost

We believe the VLGC freight market outlook screens favourably on a c40% export capacity increase in the US by 2026e which, by assuming sufficient molecules to fill the terminals, is on track to outpace the delivery schedule through our forecast period. We find BW LPG attractive, trading at a 28% discount to steel, and believe the potential risks are skewed to the upside for our 16% average 2025–2026e earnings yield. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK190 (200).

LPG exports up 9% YTD bodes well for H2'25

EU tariff summary for Swedish small caps

Above for Q4, DPS at 3.5x cons

EBITDA of USD 104m (12% vs. ABGSC, 13% vs. cons.); Q1 guidance 11% below cons, 2% above ABGSCe; Share price up 2-4% on Q4 DPS beat.

A playbook on US tariffs

As a response to recent news flow of potential tariffs and countermeasures, we highlight the main implications for the shipping sectors we cover. While the specifics remain uncertain, the below input might assist in gauging potential impacts of the disruptions.

ABGSC Shipping Daily 30 January

Mixed tanker and dry bulk markets, LPG up, Shipping peer group trades at P/NAV 0.75x, BW LPG: Lower terminal fees imply upside to rates, SNI Q1: Q4 beat, guides for lower TCE in Q1

Lower terminal fees imply upside to rates

Getinge (Buy, TP: SEK255.00) - Strong finish to 2024

Q4 earnings were stronger than expected, and YOY organic growth was 9.2% for sales and 7.4% for order intake, well above consensus. The recently acquired Paragonix is performing well, with 65% reported growth YOY. Getinge will phase out Surgical Perfusion over 2025–2026, which should have a minor positive effect on the adj. EBITA margin in 2025e (potentially larger effect in the coming years). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK255 (245).

Strong Q4 saves the year