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Niclas Gehin
  • Niclas Gehin

Norsk Hydro (Sell, TP: NOK55.00) - Q1 shipments delayed to Q2

Norsk Hydro’s Q1 results fell somewhat short of market expectations (EBITDA 4% below consensus) and it cut its Extrusions guidance. A large share of the miss appears to reflect late shipments in the bauxite and alumina (B&A) segment following heavy rainfall, which should mean higher volumes in Q2. We have made only minor changes (-1–0%) to our 2026–2027e EPS. We continue to see downside risk to aluminium prices, and reiterate our SELL and NOK55 target price.

ABGSC Metals & Mining Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Metals & Mining Research
  • Bengt Jonassen
  • Martin Melbye
ABGSC Metals & Mining Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Metals & Mining Research
  • Bengt Jonassen
  • Martin Melbye
ABGSC Chemicals Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Chemicals Research
  • Bengt Jonassen
  • Martin Melbye
ABGSC Metals & Mining Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Metals & Mining Research
  • Bengt Jonassen
  • Martin Melbye
Niclas Gehin
  • Niclas Gehin

Yara (Buy, TP: NOK425.00) - Volumes/costs aid Q1 EBITDA beat

Q1 EBITDA beat our estimate by 19% and consensus by 22%, with help from solid volumes, lower energy costs and a higher share of premium products sold, FX tailwinds and further cost reductions. Its FID on the blue ammonia projects is still set for H1 2026 and it continues to highlight the strategic rationale of the investment. Our estimates are largely unchanged (no change to 2026–2027e EPS), with higher earnings following the report broadly offset by slightly lower nitrate prices in recent weeks...

ABGSC Chemicals Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Chemicals Research
  • Bengt Jonassen
  • Martin Melbye
 PRESS RELEASE

Yara reports strong deliveries and margins

Yara reports strong deliveries and margins Yara reports first quarter 2025 EBITDA excluding special items1 of USD 638 million compared with USD 435 million in first quarter 2024. Net income was USD 295 million compared with USD 16 million a year earlier. First quarter 2025 highlights: EBITDA excl. special items1 up 47%, with strong deliveries and marginsCost reductions on track and continuous improvements through portfolio optimizationSupportive nitrogen upgrading margins in the medium termYara’s scale and global optimization provide flexibility in volatile times “We are pleased with rep...

 PRESS RELEASE

Yara rapporterer sterke leveranser og marginer

Yara rapporterer sterke leveranser og marginer EBITDA eksklusive spesielle poster1 for første kvartal 2025 var 638 millioner USD sammenlignet med 435 millioner USD i første kvartal 2024. Resultat etter skatt var 295 millioner USD sammenlignet med 16 millioner USD året før. Hovedpunkter fra kvartalet: EBITDA eksklusive spesielle poster1 økte med 47% drevet av sterke leveranser og marginerKostnadsreduksjoner i rute og kontinuerlige forbedringer gjennom porteføljeoptimaliseringGode markedsutsikter for nitrogen på mellomlang siktYaras skala og globale forretningsmodell gir fleksibilitet  – V...

 PRESS RELEASE

Reminder: Program for the publication of Yara International ASA first ...

Reminder: Program for the publication of Yara International ASA first quarter results 2025 Yara International ASA first quarter 2025 results will be published on Friday, 25 April 2025 at 08:00 CEST. You can follow the first-quarter results presentation online at 12:00 CEST. The presentation will be held in English. The report, presentation and webcast will be available at the above mentioned times at   There will also be a conference call at 13:00 CEST the same day with an opportunity to ask questions to Yara’s management. Please use the link to register for this session:   Registered c...

Jørgen Lian
  • Jørgen Lian

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...

ABGSC Chemicals Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Chemicals Research
  • Bengt Jonassen
  • Martin Melbye
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
Niclas Gehin
  • Niclas Gehin

Yara (Buy, TP: NOK425.00) - A globalist in a protectionist world

We expect Q1 EBITDA of NOK537m (results due at 08:00 CET on 25 April). We believe the current tariff turbulence increases uncertainty relating to Yara’s planned US blue ammonia investments, and thus the likelihood of the project not seeing daylight. We have raised our 2026–2027e EPS by just 3% on higher fertiliser and lower natural gas prices. At a 2026e P/E of 8x, we reiterate our BUY and NOK425 target price.

ABGSC Metals & Mining Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Metals & Mining Research
  • Bengt Jonassen
  • Martin Melbye
 PRESS RELEASE

Program for the publication of Yara International ASA first quarter re...

Program for the publication of Yara International ASA first quarter results 2025 Yara International ASA first quarter 2025 results will be published on Friday, 25 April 2025 at 08:00 CEST. You can follow the first-quarter results presentation online at 12:00 CEST. The presentation will be held in English. The report, presentation and webcast will be available at the above mentioned times at   There will also be a conference call at 13:00 CEST the same day with an opportunity to ask questions to Yara’s management. Please use the link to register for this session:   Registered conference ...

Niclas Gehin
  • Niclas Gehin

Norsk Hydro (Sell, TP: NOK55.00) - Aluminium defying fundamentals

We reiterate our SELL and NOK55 target price, as we believe consensus EPS and aluminium price expectations are too high. We have seen aluminium prices outperform coal prices by 40% since the summer, defying the fundamental relationship where aluminium prices have been set by its cost of production for the past 15 years. We do not believe a balanced global supply/demand situation is likely to break this correlation. We have reduced our 2026–2027e EPS by 3% due to a stronger NOK versus USD. We est...

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