Valmet Oyj: 1 director

A director at Valmet Oyj bought 1,000 shares at 23.642EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sho...

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR32.00) - Earnings growth needed in Q4

Following mixed Q3 results, we have tweaked our 2024–2026e clean EPS (c-1% on average). Q3 clean EBITA improved slightly YOY, but we believe a stronger improvement will be required in Q4 YOY to reach the 2024 guidance of flat clean EBITA YOY. We reiterate our BUY and EUR32 target price.

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR32.00) - 2024 profit warning

We have cut our 2024–2026e clean EPS by 8% on average following Friday’s profit warning. Consensus was sceptical about the previous optimistic-looking guidance, and we expect questions to remain about the new guidance. We have cut our target price to EUR32 (35) but reiterate our BUY.

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR35.00) - Orders and earnings raise forecasts

We have raised our 2025–2026e clean EPS by c4% on average mainly due to the recent EUR1bn+ mega pulp order set to be booked in Q4. We expect Q3 orders and clean EBITA to grow YOY. Our orders are c4% below post-Q2 consensus, but clean EBITA is c5% above. We have raised our target price to EUR35 (33) and reiterate our BUY.

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR33.00) - Strong H2 in the making

We have tweaked our 2024–2026e clean EPS following the Q2 results, which revealed better-than-expected orders, an increase in the overall short-term demand outlook, and the maintained 2024 guidance suggesting strong H2 clean EBITA. We reiterate our BUY and EUR33 target price.

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR33.00) - 2024 guidance raised recently

We have raised our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c10% on average following the recent (13 June) change in 2024 guidance for clean EBITA to increase (earlier ‘flat to increase’) YOY. We have raised our target price to EUR33 (30) and reiterate our BUY. In the Q2 results, we plan to focus on orders and outlook.

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR30.00) - Q1 on the weak side

Following a mixed but negatively skewed overall Q1, we have lowered our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c4% on average. We reiterate our BUY and EUR30 target price.

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR30.00) - Soft legacy, inorganic support

We have raised our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c1% on average, following our reduced underlying assumptions but including recently completed M&A. We reiterate our BUY and EUR30 target price. For the Q1 report, we will focus on orders, profitability and the market outlook.

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR30.00) - Solid Q4, optimism for 2024

We have raised our 2024–2025e clean EBITA by c2% on average, after an in-line Q4 as well as a reiterated outlook and a solid 2024 guidance. Our 3% clean EPS cuts relate to higher than estimated financial costs. We have raised our target price to EUR30 (28) and reiterate our BUY.

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR30.00) - Focus on orders and guidance

Our 2024–2025e clean EPS is unchanged ahead of the Q4 results, due at 12:00 CET on 7 February, followed by a briefing at 13:00 CET. In the report we will focus on orders, the 2024 market outlook and guidance. We expect Valmet to guide for flat or slightly declining sales and clean EBITA YOY (organically down, but with support from M&A). We have raised our target price to EUR30 (28) and reiterate our BUY.

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR28.00) - Widespread order misses

Following weaker-than-expected orders in Q3, including high-profitability businesses Services and Automation, we have cut our 2024–2025e clean EPS by c6%. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to EUR28 (30).

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR30.00) - Focus on orders and outlook

In the upcoming Q3 results, we plan to focus on orders and market outlook commentary. We have made minor 2023–2025e clean EPS changes but have cut our target price to EUR30 (34). We reiterate our BUY as we see upside potential from the currently depressed share price and valuation.

Northern Lights

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR34.00) - 2024e clean EPS to decline YOY

Our 2023e-tilted order cuts have led us to lower our 2024–2025e sales by c3% on average and clean EPS by c5% on average. We expect sales and clean EPS to decline YOY in 2024e. However, as orders are likely to trough in 2023e and recover in 2024e, we reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to EUR34 (36).

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR36.00) - Substantial softening priced in

Ahead of Valmet’s Q2 results (due 26 July, time tbc), we have lowered our clean EPS by 3% for 2023e, 7% for 2024e, and 5% for 2025e. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to EUR36 (40). The recent share price weakness suggests substantial cuts to consensus.

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Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR40.00) - Undervalued quality

We have raised our 2023–2025e clean EPS by 6% on average, following strong Q1 orders and earnings. We have increased our target price to EUR40 (36) and reiterate our BUY. In our view, Valmet’s attractive sales and earnings mix as well as continued earnings quality improvements warrant multiples expansion.

Northern Lights

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR36.00) - Continued solid demand

In the Q1 results, our focus will be on orders and the market outlook. We expect Q1 orders to grow c5% YOY and Valmet to maintain its overall good demand outlook. With only small estimate changes, we reiterate our BUY and EUR36 target price.

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