reports
- Ole Martin Westgaard
XXL ASA (Hold, TP: NOK11.00) - Encouraging LFL growth
The Q1 results were below expectations, but we find the positive LFL growth encouraging amid challenging winter conditions and years of consecutive negative LFL growth. We have reinstated our recommendation at HOLD (NO REC) and target price at NOK11 (N/A), as the earnings trend remains subdued and near-term multiples and financial risk are high. However, this is partly offset by Frasers' NOK10 per share bid for the company.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Q1 below, but back to growth
We consider this a slightly negative report for XXL, including figures below expectations despite revenue growth in a quarter with challenging winter conditions. We expect consensus 2025e EBITDA to come down 3–5% and find a slight negative share price reaction warranted.
- Tomi Railo
- Tomi Railo
- Tomi Railo
- Tomi Railo
Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR32.00) - Mixed Q4, with Services shining
We have cut our 2025–2026e clean EPS by c3% on average due to the Q4 earnings miss, our lower capital profitability forecast, and our higher financial cost estimates. We continue to believe the valuation is attractive, and reiterate our BUY and EUR32 target price.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Some early signs of recovery
XXL reported weak figures as pre-warned, but with signs of light as revenues and gross margins appear to have started to recover from low levels, supported by its strategic initiatives. We continue to find the balance sheet soft, but the NOK600m rights issue targeted for March should ease the situation somewhat.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
- Tomi Railo
Quality rise warrants multiples uplift
Our analysis shows that Finnish industrials have improved their earnings quality over the past 10 years, supported by expanding Service profitability and shares of total sales and earnings. We believe this together with improved stability, visibility and financials should be better rewarded in the valuations. We have a positive sector stance and highlight Konecranes, Metso and Valmet on potential multiples expansion.
- Tomi Railo
- Ole Martin Westgaard
XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Q4 trading update and fully underwritten r...
XXL announced yesterday after close that its main shareholders have agreed on a fully underwritten rights issue and that the alternative rights issue will not be implemented. The company also provided a Q4 trading update, which implies a gross profit cNOK11m–31m below our estimate due to a lower gross margin.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Frasers bids for XXL
Frasers Group has announced it intends to launch a voluntary offer for all the shares in XXL at NOK10 per share. If all offer conditions are met, the transaction is expected to close in Q1 2025, and Frasers will also consign up to NOK500m of stock to XXL.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
Valmet Oyj: 1 director
A director at Valmet Oyj bought 1,000 shares at 23.642EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sho...
- Tomi Railo
Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR32.00) - Earnings growth needed in Q4
Following mixed Q3 results, we have tweaked our 2024–2026e clean EPS (c-1% on average). Q3 clean EBITA improved slightly YOY, but we believe a stronger improvement will be required in Q4 YOY to reach the 2024 guidance of flat clean EBITA YOY. We reiterate our BUY and EUR32 target price.
- Tomi Railo
Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR32.00) - 2024 profit warning
We have cut our 2024–2026e clean EPS by 8% on average following Friday’s profit warning. Consensus was sceptical about the previous optimistic-looking guidance, and we expect questions to remain about the new guidance. We have cut our target price to EUR32 (35) but reiterate our BUY.
- Tomi Railo
Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR35.00) - Orders and earnings raise forecasts
We have raised our 2025–2026e clean EPS by c4% on average mainly due to the recent EUR1bn+ mega pulp order set to be booked in Q4. We expect Q3 orders and clean EBITA to grow YOY. Our orders are c4% below post-Q2 consensus, but clean EBITA is c5% above. We have raised our target price to EUR35 (33) and reiterate our BUY.
- Tomi Railo
Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR33.00) - Strong H2 in the making
We have tweaked our 2024–2026e clean EPS following the Q2 results, which revealed better-than-expected orders, an increase in the overall short-term demand outlook, and the maintained 2024 guidance suggesting strong H2 clean EBITA. We reiterate our BUY and EUR33 target price.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
XXL ASA (Hold, TP: NOK0.75) - Q2 disappoints
While there are early signs of a market recovery, this was not apparent in XXL’s Q2 results, which were significantly below expectations, driven by lower sales, reduced gross margins, and higher costs. XXL is making progress on its strategic initiatives, but it needs to return to sales growth to see the full impact. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK0.75 target price.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
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