DPS of NOK 100/sh in June

Tyra plateau in May'25, dividends to follow

Energy Morning - 7 May 2025

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Equinor reported Q1 results in line with expectations. However, we continue to see valuation downside due to Empire Wind risks and a likely sharp YOY drop in 2026e buybacks. OKEA also reported in-line Q1 results. In other news, Equinor announced it agreed to sell its 60% Peregrino stake at a solid price, although we believe the proceeds would have to support near-term shareholder returns to drive a positive share price reaction.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Vår Energi reported Q1 results very much in line with expectations. The company also reaffirmed its 2025 guidance and maintained its dividend. Also, OKEA reported a solid Q1, with production and prices slightly above our estimates. While a technical goodwill impairment reduces its dividend basket for 2025, we view this as non-material, as we do not expect any dividends before 2027. Meanwhile, we are 5% below consensus on Q1e EBIT ahead of Equinor’s Q1 results on 30 April (07:00 CET), ...

Solid NCS production in March

The Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary NCS figures for March showed liquids production of 1,972kboed (1.6% above its forecast) and gas production of 351mcm/d (0.4% above its forecast). Overall, production was 4.18mmboed (1.1% above its forecast), flat MOM, but down 4.9% YOY. Company-wise, the February production figures should be well known as most companies have already reported their production figures for Q1.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Stress testing

We have stress-tested our coverage universe at a USD60/bbl oil price, concluding that most names remain dependent on rising oil prices to warrant upside potential from current share prices. Moreover, unless oil prices move higher, we see increasing risk of cuts in shareholder distributions for Vår Energi and Equinor, while the risk appears lower for Aker BP. Overall, we remain cautious as macro risks remain tilted to the downside. We continue to prefer Aker BP as it screens best on valuation and...

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Equinor, Aker BP, and Vår Energi released their Q1 trading updates. Equinor’s realised liquids prices were broadly in line with consensus across all segments. Aker BP reported a modest production beat, 2% above consensus, with realised liquids and gas prices largely as expected. Vår Energi’s Q1 production was 2% below our estimate and consensus, while realised liquids prices met expectations and gas prices exceeded them by 4–11%.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Energy Morning - 7 April 2025

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, we published previews for most of our coverage universe. For Aker BP, we estimate solid Q1 production of 450kboed, with our EBITDA forecast 12% above consensus, ahead of the trading update on 7 April. For Vår Energi, we expect a slow start to the year, with Q1e production of 277kboed, leaving our EBITDA c7% below consensus, ahead of the trading update on 11 April. In other news, Johan Castberg reached first oil this week, with ramp-up expected through Q2 2025.

Estimate changes from Crude Quarterly, 3 April

BlueNord (Hold, TP: NOK660.00) - A tough start to the year

Ahead of the Q1 results (due at c07:00 CET on 7 May), we forecast net production of 30kboed and EBITDA of USD124m (no reliable consensus). Due to continued operational issues at Tyra and reduced production in March and April, we have cut our 2025e EBITDA by 14%. Consequently, we now expect the first dividend payment (USD215m) in Q2. With the stock trading at a P/NAV of ~1.15x, we reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to NOK660 (680) on our lowered 2025 estimates.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, we published a note on the harsh reality of USD70/bbl for our coverage. While investors appear to be positioning for lower oil prices, we believe consensus FCF estimates for NCS large caps remain overly aggressive. Meanwhile, DNO announced a discovery at the Kjøttkake prospect, north-west of Troll, adding ~NOK0.8/share (~4%) to DNO’s NAV and ~NOK1/share to Aker BP’s (

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector

Weekly news, topics and discussion

This week, NCS February production was broadly in line with the NOD’s expectations, with total output flat MOM but down 2.4% YOY. Aker BP showed solid January production, while Equinor, Vår Energi, OKEA and DNO showed declines MOM. Halten East is now on stream, but its slow ramp-up limits Vår Energi’s 2025 uplift to ~5kboed, reinforcing the downside risk to its 330–360kboed guidance. Also, DNO successfully placed a new USD600m bond (8.5% coupon) to refinance DNO04 and for general corporate purpo...