Estimate changes from Crude Quarterly, 3 April

BlueNord (Hold, TP: NOK660.00) - A tough start to the year

Ahead of the Q1 results (due at c07:00 CET on 7 May), we forecast net production of 30kboed and EBITDA of USD124m (no reliable consensus). Due to continued operational issues at Tyra and reduced production in March and April, we have cut our 2025e EBITDA by 14%. Consequently, we now expect the first dividend payment (USD215m) in Q2. With the stock trading at a P/NAV of ~1.15x, we reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to NOK660 (680) on our lowered 2025 estimates.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, we published a note on the harsh reality of USD70/bbl for our coverage. While investors appear to be positioning for lower oil prices, we believe consensus FCF estimates for NCS large caps remain overly aggressive. Meanwhile, DNO announced a discovery at the Kjøttkake prospect, north-west of Troll, adding ~NOK0.8/share (~4%) to DNO’s NAV and ~NOK1/share to Aker BP’s (

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector

Weekly news, topics and discussion

This week, NCS February production was broadly in line with the NOD’s expectations, with total output flat MOM but down 2.4% YOY. Aker BP showed solid January production, while Equinor, Vår Energi, OKEA and DNO showed declines MOM. Halten East is now on stream, but its slow ramp-up limits Vår Energi’s 2025 uplift to ~5kboed, reinforcing the downside risk to its 330–360kboed guidance. Also, DNO successfully placed a new USD600m bond (8.5% coupon) to refinance DNO04 and for general corporate purpo...

NCS February production in line

The Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary NCS figures for February showed liquids production of 1,938kboed (in line with its forecast) and gas production of 355mcm/d (3.8% above its estimate). Overall production was 4.17mmboed, flat MOM (1.8% above its forecast), but down 2.4% YOY. Company-wise, Aker BP reported solid production in January, while Equinor, Vår Energi, OKEA and DNO all reported production down MOM.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, BlueNord cut its Q1 production guidance by ~25% due to a breaker failure at Tyra, implying a 5% hit to 2025 guidance and likely delaying the first dividend from March to May. Following DNO’s Sval Energi acquisition, we upgraded OKEA to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to NOK23 (20). We believe historical NCS transaction multiples provide valuation support for OKEA. Meanwhile, the sector is down 10–20% since Brent peaked at USD82/bbl in mid-January, with scarce oil macro support ...

Energy Morning - 11 March 2025

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week,

Energy Morning - 6 March 2025

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

US shale: resilient growth in 2025e

Based on our Q4 survey of US shale companies, we expect continued efficiency gains, productivity improvements, and operational synergies from consolidation to drive ~5% YOY liquids production growth in 2025, broadly in line with 2024 levels. This is despite an estimated 5% YOY decline in capex, indicating that production is expanding steadily without a corresponding increase in activity. The combination of rising production and declining capex is likely to drive down breakeven levels, strengthen...

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Panoro Energy reported Q4 results and 2025 guidance in line with expectations. While production may trend towards the lower end of the guided 11–13kboed, the stock’s ~30% NAV discount suggests solid execution could drive a re-rating. Meanwhile, BlueNord expects to complete the Tyra completion test by mid-March, having already surpassed the 34.0kboed gas export threshold – a key milestone that would enable shareholder distributions. In exploration, Vår Energi announced a ~13–45mmboe di...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate (NOD) released preliminary January production figures for the NCS, showing a 6.5% YOY decline, with overall production at 4.17mmboed on weaker gas output. Uncertainty remains over Kurdistan oil exports, with reports suggesting a potential March restart, although Turkey has yet to receive confirmation. In exploration, the NOD confirmed the Bounty Updip prospect as dry.

January NCS production down YOY

The Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary January NCS figures showed liquids production of 1,990kboed (0.5% above its forecast) and soft gas production of 346mcm/d (2.6% below its estimate). Overall production was 4.17mmboed (1% below its forecast), down 2.8% MOM and 6.5% YOY. Company-wise, December production should be well known following the Q4 results for our NCS coverage.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.