Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector

US shale: limited revisions and colour on 2025 activity levels

Our Q3 survey of the US shale universe showed limited revisions to guidance for 2024, and we still expect muted 2024 production growth of ~4–5% YOY (+8% YOY in 2023). Our survey also suggests capex down ~2% YOY, as the companies continue to guide for flat activity. Limited colour was provided on 2025 activity levels and associated capex, which we will know more about in the Q4 results season. For Q3, our universe marginally underspent its cash flow, albeit with net debt continuing to build QOQ a...

BlueNord (Buy, TP: NOK680.00) - The next chapter

Following the scheduled Tyra ramp-up to plateau production towards year-end, we expect the first dividend announcement in January. For 2025–2026, we calculate DPS of NOK352, equal to ~60% of its market cap. Moreover, we see a compelling equity story after 2026e, supported by the Danish Continental Shelf (DCS), a high-value basin with strong prospectivity. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK680 (610).

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Energy Morning - 11 November 2024

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, DNO reported Q3 underlying results fairly in line with our estimates. It also introduced a long-term production guidance for its North Sea operations, which we find a bit too aggressive. Still, we estimate the North Sea net production to increase from 15kboed in 2024 to >20kboed in 2027. In other news, Equinor acquired a 11.8% stake from Sval Energi in the Halten East development, and BlueNord’s preliminary October production figures were at the lower end of its Q4 base production gui...

Energy Morning - 7 November 2024

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Aker BP reported Q3 results, with underlying figures in line with expectations. We believe operational tailwinds could benefit it going into 2025, with consensus perhaps underestimating the production potential. Meanwhile, although OKEA reported a strong Q3, we believe it was overshadowed by the introduction of production and capex guidance, which we consider soft. In other news, we see several potential share-price catalysts for BlueNord in the coming months, with the Tyra restart se...

Tyra plateau expected before year-end

Energy Morning - 1 November 2024

BlueNord (Buy, TP: NOK610.00) - Catalysts should be lined up ahead

The underlying Q3 results were virtually in line with our estimates and consensus. We see several potential share price catalysts over the next months, with the Tyra restart set for the second half of November and a sequential ramp-up to plateau in December. Moreover, we expect to gain more understanding of the volume potential from the recent successful HEMJ exploration well, which could help to extend the production plateau for BlueNord. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to...

Q3: EBITDA in line, Tyra plateau still expected in Q4

Q3 EBITDA of USD 85m, vs cons of USD 89m. Tyra plateau production still expected in Q4. Report looks much as expected.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector

Potential exploration catalysts

Exploration activity on the NCS has remained high into Q4, with six exploration wells and one appraisal ongoing, and up to 10 more expected by year-end, representing 1.3bn boe in total resource potential. We consider Bounty, Arkenstone, Falstaff, and Kvernbit as key wells to keep an eye on. In our view, OKEA stands out relative to its own size due to its 20% stake in the upcoming Arkenstone well, with substantial upside potential if successful. Meanwhile, we believe Equinor, Aker BP, and Vår Ene...

Energy Morning - 29 October 2024

Near-term estimates down ahead of Q3

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Equinor reported Q3 results in line with our estimates. We believe focus among investors remains on the potential for reduced renewable capex at its CMU in February 2025, where we consider the risk/reward attractive and see a reduction to its renewable capex as likely. Also, Vår Energi reported solid Q3 results, with EBITDA 6–5% above expectations. In other news, OKEA reported strong Q3 production, with 2024 production likely to reach the high end of its guidance.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Aker BP and DNO published their Q3 trading updates. Aker BP reported net production of 415kboed and realised liquids prices of USD80.3/bbl, in line with consensus and our estimates. For DNO, gross production from Kurdistan was 84kboed, versus our 80kboed estimate. Meanwhile, net production from its North Sea operations was on the soft side at 11.2kboed. In other news, we published a preview on Blue