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ABGSC Renewable Energy Research ... (+8)
  • ABGSC Renewable Energy Research
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Åsne Holsen
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Olof Cederholm
  • Stian Wibstad

Renewable Weekly – 15 May 2024

This week, we take a preliminary look at Vestas' Q2 announced order intake quarter to date.

Miika Ihamaki
  • Miika Ihamaki

Huhtamaki (Buy, TP: EUR47.00) - Flexing the Flexibles

We continue to believe the market is overlooking the sizeable Flexible Packaging step-up opportunity, with significant shareholder value potential from: 1) market share gains; 2) product simplification; and 3) footprint optimisation. With no estimate changes, we reiterate our BUY and EUR47 target price, and continue to find the NTM EV/EBIT of c12.5x (5-year average: c15.0x) attractive and a good entry point.

Simen Mortensen
  • Simen Mortensen

Swedish policy rate cut, an upgrade and a downgrade

Sweden’s Riksbank cut the policy rate this week to 3.75% (4.0%); our estimates are based on another four cuts by end-2025. During the week we upgraded Veidekke to BUY, downgraded Castellum to HOLD, and reiterated our HOLD on Kojamo and SELL on Hufvudstaden and Sagax. The average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.40% for 2024e and 4.79% for 2025e.

ABGSC Consumer Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Consumer Goods Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Fredrik Ivarsson

E-commerce traffic - April 2024

We have evaluated Similarweb data for April. Aggregated traffic to e-com sites up 4% y-o-y. Rugvista traffic growth continues, don't fear RVRC's -19% y-o-y.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen

Merger with PGS just around the corner

Only marginal changes after Q1. We are confident that the outlook is bright. Attractive valuation for combined entity: BUY, TP NOK of 180 (unch).

Niklas Wetterling
  • Niklas Wetterling

Hufvudstaden (Sell, TP: SEK115.00) - Vacancies on the rise

The Q1 results provided the market with no relief for its concern about the Stockholm office and retail rental market strength, as the company missed on revenues and saw an increased vacancy rate. We have cut our EPS by 5–6% for 2023–2026 and our target price to SEK115 (120), and reiterate our SELL.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Leverage too low, more dividends needed

Q2 will likely see the first special dividend. '25e EBITDA +24% vs. consensus. TP NOK 203 (200) – BUY.

Jørgen Lian
  • Jørgen Lian

Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA Minor model adjustments

We have marginally increased our revenue estimates and revised our cost assumptions, owing to the Q1 results. With no surprises related to the Red Sea disruption or the Baltimore bridge accident, focus should shift to shareholder distributions. The revised dividend policy allows for extraordinary dividends at the board’s discretion, something we have not seen before, and the first possibility could be in connection with Q2. We calculate cNOK25/share in excess cash today, potentially on top of N...

Steffen Evjen
  • Steffen Evjen

TGS (Hold, TP: NOK125.00) - Few reasons to engage near-term

Given a more muted near-term outlook, we expect cuts to consensus for the Acquisition business, but also soft utilisation of the soon-to-be-acquired PGS vessels in Q2, leaving investors few reasons to buy the stock near-term. We therefore reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to NOK125 (130) on our lower 2024–2026e proprietary revenue estimates.

Ole Martin Westgaard
  • Ole Martin Westgaard

Elmera Group (Sell, TP: NOK21.00) - Time to recharge

The Q1 results were above our forecasts, but cash flow was weak. We expect the key focus ahead to be the need for a new bank facility, which we are concerned could come at an increased financial cost. We have made minor estimate changes and reiterate our SELL and NOK21 target price.

ABGSC Renewable Energy Research ... (+8)
  • ABGSC Renewable Energy Research
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Åsne Holsen
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Olof Cederholm
  • Stian Wibstad

Renewable Weekly – 8 May 2024

This week, we look at key takeaways from GWEC's 2024 Global Wind Report.

ABGSC Renewable Energy Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Renewable Energy Research
  • Ali Shemmari
  • Petter Nystrøm

Powering up

Q1 demonstrated strength, more favourable market dynamics. Another beat in Q2e, we are 8% ahead on adj EBIT. Multiple expansion to continue: Still ~30% upside to TP: BUY

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf
Ole Martin Westgaard
  • Ole Martin Westgaard

Elmera Group (Sell, TP: NOK21.00) - Q1 EBIT above

We consider this a positive report for Elmera overall, including EBIT above expectations but deliveries slightly below (but above in Consumer), and weak operating cash flow due to significant working capital movements. We expect 3% positive revisions to consensus 2024e EBIT on the back of the report and believe a positive share price reaction is warranted.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

EBITDA as expected and no big news

Adj. EBITDA of USD 439m (1% vs. ABGSC, -1% vs. cons). Shipping services and Logistics above ABGSCe, Government and Holdings belowFlat share price given no surprises in the conference call

 PRESS RELEASE

TGS Quarterly Dividend

TGS Quarterly Dividend OSLO, NORWAY (8 May 2024) – Following the authorization from the Annual General Meeting on 10 May 2023, the Board of TGS ASA has resolved to distribute a quarterly dividend of the NOK equivalent of USD 0.14 per share (NOK 1.52 per share) in Q2 2024. Key information relating to the cash dividend: Dividend amount and declared currency: USD 0.14 per share (equivalent to NOK 1.52 per share)Last trading day including right: 15 May 2024 Ex-date: 16 May 2024Record date: 21 May 2024Payment date: 3 June 2024 Date of approval: 7 May 2024            Company Summary      TGS ...

 PRESS RELEASE

TGS Announces Q1 2024 Results

TGS Announces Q1 2024 Results OSLO, Norway (8 May 2024) - TGS today reported interim financial results for Q1 2024. The quarter reflected a strong development in multi-client late sales and high POC early sales rate, resulting in solid profitability in POC financials. Financial highlights: POC revenues (1) were USD 227 million compared to USD 229 million in Q1 2023 POC EBITDA of USD 143 million versus USD 119 million in Q1 2023POC operating result was USD 40 million compared to USD 25 million in Q1 2023 Contract inflow of USD 140 million during Q1 2024 compared to USD 248 million ...

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